Probably not enough to survive on and even then it would require the Mauritanians to give those resources up. I would not bet on that.Originally Posted by Fuchs
Probably not enough to survive on and even then it would require the Mauritanians to give those resources up. I would not bet on that.
“Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.”
Terry Pratchett
Reflections after a visit in the past
A Stratfor article 'Africa's Tuareg Dilemma' by Robert D. Kaplan, who visited Mali years ago which is a good background read and then reflects on what has happened:http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/afr...obert-d-kaplan
The real fundamental drama will play out gradually, outside the strictures of media accounts. This drama will be about how, and whether, Africa's recently impressive economic growth rates can lead to the creation of larger middle classes. It is larger middle classes that lead, in turn, to more efficient and vigorous government ministries, and to more professional militaries, so that hinterlands might be brought under control and artificially drawn borders made more workable. The Saharan countries, in this regard, are a more extreme version of the larger African challenge, as the desert has created the largest dichotomy of populations within the continent.
davidbfpo
Slightly tangential.
I think we are losing sight of an extremely important and obvious event - the speed at which the Malian state fell apart.
That, not elections nor "a restoration of democracy" or even "the presence of AQ/Boko Haram" is what should keep us worried.
Did Mali fall apart?
KingJaja asked:Kaplan referred to the fragility of many African countries in his article, so it is noteworthy that today in FP Blog there is an article, which starts with:I think we are losing sight of an extremely important and obvious event - the speed at which the Malian state fell apart.Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._harm?page=0,0In a continent that doesn't have much of a reputation for liberal governance, Mali stood out. For the past twenty years this country of 12 million people has stuck doggedly to democratic principles. In 1991, Malians overthrew a military dictatorship and convened a national assembly that drew up a constitution guaranteeing freedom of the press, far-reaching decentralization, and presidential elections every five years. In the years since then, the people of this Muslim-majority country have consistently managed to stick to those principles.
Note the FP article also asks a far wider question, about the impact of intervention in Libya:The lesson: Even in situations where there is ample justification for using force against dictators or war criminals, policymakers would be well-advised to take a good look at the possible negative side effects of their actions.
davidbfpo
Analyst says Somali pirates have new weapons from Libya
Unrelated. Talks about the proliferation of weapons from Libya. If Somali pirates have them, then they are most certainly in Mali/Nigeria.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...83B0HO20120412(Reuters) - Somali pirates have acquired sophisticated weaponry, including mines and shoulder-held missile launchers from Libya, and are likely to use them in bolder attacks on shipping, a senior maritime security analyst said on Thursday.
"We found that Libyan weapons are being sold in what is the world's biggest black market for illegal gun smugglers, and Somali pirates are among those buying from sellers in Sierra Leone, Liberia and other countries," said Judith van der Merwe, of the Algiers-based African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism.
"We believe our information is credible and know that some of the pirates have acquired ship mines, as well as Stinger and other shoulder-held missile launchers," Van der Merwe told Reuters on the sidelines of an Indian Ocean naval conference.
After Libya's ruler Muammar Gaddafi was killed by rebels in the north African state, weaponry from his well-stocked arsenals made its way onto the black market, she said.
The information was gathered from interviews with gun smugglers, pirates and other sources, said Van der Merwe.
Pirates operating from the Somali coast have raked in millions of dollars in ransoms from hijacking ships and a report in 2011 estimated that maritime piracy costs the global economy between $7 billion and $12 billion through higher shipping costs and ransom payments.
Warships from NATO, the European Union and other affected countries deployed in the Gulf of Aden have had only limited success in combating pirate attacks, mainly because of the huge expanse of sea that needs surveillance, some 2.5 million square miles.
"What we are seeing is a decrease in the number of successful attacks, but an increase in the ransom amounts paid out, and the fear is that better armed pirates could risk more or pose a greater challenge when facing capture," Van der Merwe said.
Pirates have attacked as far away as the Indian coast, about 1,000 nautical miles away, and are increasingly turning their attention southwards towards South Africa.
A former commander of naval Task Force 151, one of the multi-national forces in the Gulf of Aden, said pirates usually surrendered when faced with the massive firepower of naval vessels.
"At this stage we are seeing no evidence the pirates of Somalia are having any weapons beyond the AK47s and RPGs," Rear Admiral Harris Chan of the Singapore Navy told Reuters at the conference.
CFR: Mali a dilemma for African Regional Organizations
But the Sahel as a whole faces drought, and there were UN warnings of possible famine even before the Mali coup occurred. Now, a spokesman for Oxfam observes that closing borders or restricting trade could have a devastating impact on the people of Mali, making emergency food deliveries to starving populations even more difficult.These two quotes, from an article that is a bit outdated by now with the official transition, does bring up a linkage between the Taureg insurgency, Mali, and the famine. If I were the Malian government, I would probably use the food as leverage, try to break the Tauregs by starving them to death or forcing them to migrate to other Sahelian states.Regional organizations may find they have less leverage in such circumstances. And, as Oxfam reminds us, famine could become the context.
A few problems with that:These two quotes, from an article that is a bit outdated by now with the official transition, does bring up a linkage between the Taureg insurgency, Mali, and the famine. If I were the Malian government, I would probably use the food as leverage, try to break the Tauregs by starving them to death or forcing them to migrate to other Sahelian states.
1. There is no shortage of extremely fragile states from which to operate from. "Starving them out" will simply transfer the problem to these states, from which they can easily regroup and come back stronger (see how Liberia destabilised Sierra Leone).
2. This isn't Biafra 2.0 when the Nigerian government used "starvation as a legitimate weapon of war". Will the international community tolerate starvation as a weapon of war? In any case, I don't recall starvation having a great record of forcing outcomes in Africa's recent history. (Mugabe is still in business, Somalia is still as messed up as it was before).
Totally unrelated. Coup in Guinea Bissau.
Is this the new normal? I'm no expert in democracy, but it clearly has not delivered the goods in Africa. There is no evidence that life in "democratic" Mali was better than life in "authoritarian" Uganda or Ethiopia.
In Nigeria, where I come from 70% of children in primary education in Lagos attend private schools. Democracy has been accompanied with massive state failure (Nigeria spends more on rehabilitation of Niger Delta militants than on primary healthcare).
If democracy is seen not to work, it's back to square one.
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