Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[KingJaja]

A lot of noise has been made about the Nigerian finance minister. She isn't actually the person driving the economy, the president and the cabal that got him elected are.

The interests of the cabal do not intersect neatly with the World Bank textbook knowledge she has in her head. There are a few extremely important reforms like the deregulation of the downstream sector of the economy, the petroleum industry bill and power sector reforms that have been stalled.

Right now she has a very mixed (to put it mildly) reputation in Nigeria. Inflation is up, disposable incomes are down. The Fast Moving Consumer Goods Sector of the real economy has stalled. Power generation hasn't improved substantially.

Please understand that insiders, not outsiders (even the economist) are the best placed to assess the performance of African public servants. And definitely not the Western business community that barely ventures out of their comfort zone in Lagos.

[KingJaja]

I pulled my data off of the CIA world factbook. Perhaps I overstated that they have no mineral wealth but compared to places like Nigeria and Libya, they do not have a lot of mineral wealth. They are focused more on inviting foreign direct investment than on exploiting mineral wealth.

As for the name Tuareg, that is the name that all of the ones that I have known used for themselves. I never heard any of them complain about that and most of them would not have hesitated to do so if they were so inclined. They are not a meek people.

Always read statistics about Africa with an awareness that nobody really knows what they are talking about.

In the early 2000's, I worked in a consulting firm, based on ITU statistics, there was no way Nigeria could support 70 million mobile phone subscribers. After all, the GDP per capita figures were extremely low and we only had 300,000 land lines.

Naturally, Western firms shied away from investing in Nigeria and the South Africans took over that market. Vodafone realised its mistake and tried its best to get back into the market, but it was too late.

We've tried to do market assessments for Indian firms and firms all over the World. But we just don't know what is going on because data is so unreliable. Census figures are sometimes wildly overstated (or understated). NGOs overstate mortality figures and poverty statistics to increase funding from donor governments. And official statistics are extremely dodgy.

[Fuchs]

A hundreds of km long desert rail line between iron ore deposits and a harbour requires no statistics in order to tell me that they have mineral resources to speak of.

[KingJaja]

Has the inevitable breakup of Africa's artificial states begun in earnest?

"We solemnly proclaim the independence of Azawad as from today," said Mossa Ag Attaher, who added that the rebels would respect "the borders with other states."
Armed Islamists had stormed the Algerian consulate in northeastern Mali and abducted seven diplomats on Thursday amid fears Al Qaeda-linked fighters are turning the country into a rogue state and fuelling a humanitarian crisis.
As the Tuareg trumpeted the success of a decades-old struggle to "liberate" their homeland, their fundamentalist comrades-turned-rivals began imposing sharia law in parts of northern Mali.
The MNLA said as a result of their successful conquest of an area they call the Azawad, they were halting all military operations from midnight on Thursday.
Ag Attaher declared: "We completely accept the role and responsibility that behoves us to secure this territory. We have ended a very important fight, that of liberation ... now the biggest task commences."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...of-Azawad.html

[davidbfpo]

A BBC report that starts with:

Coup leaders in Mali have agreed to stand down and allow a transition to civilian rule, as part of a deal struck with regional bloc Ecowas. In return, the bloc will lift trade and economic sanctions and grant amnesty to the ruling junta, mediators said.

Later I noted this and wondered:

Ecowas is preparing a force of up to 3,000 soldiers which could be deployed to stop the rebel advance.

In a side bar comment:

Regional defence chiefs of staff are drafting plans for a potential military intervention. But it would still take weeks and outside logistical help before it could be deployed.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17642276

France has said it will help with logistics and IIRC previous ECOWAS expeditions have had financial support from elsewhere.

[davidbfpo]

An excellent overview of the situation in northern Mali and hat tip to SWC Blog:http://thewasat.wordpress.com/author/matzahwarrior/

A couple of key passages:

The rush to capitalize on the dissolution of Mali’s army in the north has brought to the fore deep conflicts between the MNLA and the salafist-inspired Ansar Al-Din, and brought two terrorist groups who call northern Mali home – Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its “splinter” group the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA) out of the woodwork.

This I expect contributed to the mutiny, my emphasis:

Following a siege of the military base at Aguelhoc at the end of January, photos and reports out of the city spoke of “summary executions” of nearly 100 Malian soldiers at Aguelhoc

[KingJaja]

David,

Where are the 3,000 troops going to come from?

Apart from Nigeria, who has the military means to pull it off? Ghana? Senegal? Guinea?

I don't see much enthusiasm from the Nigerian Army to go on another military adventure, their hands are full - Boko Haram, Niger Delta, Darfur etc.

[Uboat509]

A hundreds of km long desert rail line between iron ore deposits and a harbour requires no statistics in order to tell me that they have mineral resources to speak of.

Probably not enough to survive on and even then it would require the Mauritanians to give those resources up. I would not bet on that.

[davidbfpo]

A Stratfor article 'Africa's Tuareg Dilemma' by Robert D. Kaplan, who visited Mali years ago which is a good background read and then reflects on what has happened:http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/afr...obert-d-kaplan

The real fundamental drama will play out gradually, outside the strictures of media accounts. This drama will be about how, and whether, Africa's recently impressive economic growth rates can lead to the creation of larger middle classes. It is larger middle classes that lead, in turn, to more efficient and vigorous government ministries, and to more professional militaries, so that hinterlands might be brought under control and artificially drawn borders made more workable. The Saharan countries, in this regard, are a more extreme version of the larger African challenge, as the desert has created the largest dichotomy of populations within the continent.

[KingJaja]

Slightly tangential.

I think we are losing sight of an extremely important and obvious event - the speed at which the Malian state fell apart.

That, not elections nor "a restoration of democracy" or even "the presence of AQ/Boko Haram" is what should keep us worried.

[davidbfpo]

KingJaja asked:

I think we are losing sight of an extremely important and obvious event - the speed at which the Malian state fell apart.

Kaplan referred to the fragility of many African countries in his article, so it is noteworthy that today in FP Blog there is an article, which starts with:

In a continent that doesn't have much of a reputation for liberal governance, Mali stood out. For the past twenty years this country of 12 million people has stuck doggedly to democratic principles. In 1991, Malians overthrew a military dictatorship and convened a national assembly that drew up a constitution guaranteeing freedom of the press, far-reaching decentralization, and presidential elections every five years. In the years since then, the people of this Muslim-majority country have consistently managed to stick to those principles.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._harm?page=0,0

Note the FP article also asks a far wider question, about the impact of intervention in Libya:

The lesson: Even in situations where there is ample justification for using force against dictators or war criminals, policymakers would be well-advised to take a good look at the possible negative side effects of their actions.