Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[davidbfpo]

Chowing commented:

AQIM is linked with the Malian rebels recently returned from fighting in Lybia.

The rebels in most reports I have read were mercenaries for Gadafy and fought against a coalition that included jihadists. Returning home before the end, along with heavy weapons - which the Malian army had nothing to compare. Film footage tonight showed "technicals" and lorry-mounted rocket launchers.

So how do these men now become linked to AQIM?

[Dayuhan]

So how do these men now become linked to AQIM?

"Linked to AQIM" is a phrase that needs to be approached with a lot of wariness and a lot of skepticism. Of course there are all kinds of "links" between and among numerous groups, but governments and rival groups will inevitably exaggerate and distort links to AQIM in an effort to get the US to start shelling out. Nobody's forgotten the days when shouting "communists" opened the US treasury, and people will be trying to see if the word "terrorist" has the same magical effect.

[JMA]

The rebels in most reports I have read were mercenaries for Gadafy and fought against a coalition that included jihadists. Returning home before the end, along with heavy weapons - which the Malian army had nothing to compare. Film footage tonight showed "technicals" and lorry-mounted rocket launchers.

Yes probably.

The key issue here is that they will have logistics and supply problems for the weapons/equipment/vehicles they brought back from Libya.

A good field commander would tempt them to move around and fire off as much ammunition as possible until they run short or the vehicles break. (Their accuracy is not likely to be good, but the big bangs of HE are likely to scare the hell out of the rag-tag Malian army)

Then with a level playing field they close in for the kill...

[Chowing]

Chowing commented:

The rebels in most reports I have read were mercenaries for Gadafy and fought against a coalition that included jihadists. Returning home before the end, along with heavy weapons - which the Malian army had nothing to compare. Film footage tonight showed "technicals" and lorry-mounted rocket launchers.

So how do these men now become linked to AQIM?

That is exactly what the reports are saying. They are fighting for the same cause in the northern regions. That is the linkage, not of ideology or even goal. They are taking advantage the destabilization that was in the region as they began to come out of Libya.

[davidbfpo]

This example Chowing seems to fit the 'Accidental Guerilla' thesis of David Kilcullen, a local group with a local agenda being labelled as linked to AQ. Yet again an illustration that knowledge of what is happening in the remote parts of Africa and other places, like Mali is at a premium.

[Stan]

That is exactly what the reports are saying. They are fighting for the same cause in the northern regions. That is the linkage, not of ideology or even goal. They are taking advantage the destabilization that was in the region as they began to come out of Libya.

Hey Chowing,
Do you have links to those reports ?

You should give Dr. Kilcullen's Accidental Guerrilla a read... Really good stuff !