Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[Fuchs]

The classic Western solution to the heterogeneity of Mali and the North's opinion that it's being neglected is to apply federalism:
Some autonomy for the North, reduction of commonality to defence, borders security, tariffs, official language(s), citizenship/passports, foreign policy etc.

The North would learn that it probably hasn't been exploited; that its economy is simply unsustainable due to desertification and population growth.


This solution isn't going to work, even if national elites were willing to cede some power. The North would be too close to sovereignty and the national government would fear secession (which is apparently not what they want, although I cannot tell why).

An old European solution might be more helpful; independent cities. The pattern would be the same, except that it wouldn't be the North as a whole, but only smaller entities which would get autonomy.


Now who wants to bet against my assertion that neither will happen, that the intervention of foreigners with their uncompromising aversion against all fighters which talk a lot about Qu'ran will instead be aimed at international interests:
(1) stability of the African states overall
(2) elimination of jihadist political power / territorial control

They won't give a damn about Mali's long-term issues.

[davidbfpo]

A veritable deluge of commentary today on Mali, plus Algeria and the effects way beyond the Sahel. Late in the day I have a couple that are worth reading.

Citing the International Crisis Group's regional analyst (Marc's colleague):

This is linked to the Libyan conflict, it's linked to the Mali conflict, it's linked to 50 years of struggle by the Tuareg, it's linked to 20 years of struggle in Algeria...A security response is at best a partial response. Until a robust political, humanitarian and economic effort is implemented, the security effort won't solve these problems,

Link:http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_15860/cont...tguid=5y6vdwVX

For once, even if writing from the USA, a Mauritanian activist blogger; with a fascinating context and some stinging passages, especially on Western naivety. In summary:

Mali’s problems did not start with the fall of Libya’s Qadhafi. They started even before it gained independence from France. A diverse set of ethnic groups were forced to coexist without much thought of the immense potential for conflict caused by that arrangement. France’s 25th hour short-legged attempt at Shock and Awe, is potentially a doomed effort because it is a decade late. Relying on inept militaries, and hoping to win a guerilla warfare without a credible strategy is a defeat waiting to happen. A decade into wars of pacification, Western nations should resist the urge to fight in yet another war without fully thinking through the consequences– potentially disastrous. None of this is an argument to look the other way on the spread of Jihadism, it is a call to think, then act decisively. Too much is at stake.

One wonders if the French military and those back in Paris realise this

The skeleton of an untested idea became a doctrinal principle in France’s Operation Serval: we will stop the Jihadis, but the Africans will have to go north and defeat the enemy. The notion that an ECOWAS force with the backing of the African Union, and the necessary paperwork from the UN Security Council is a recipe for disaster. Rotten and corrupt militaries, commanded by equally corrupt leaders cannot be a credible partner once the shooting starts.

The African Union's previously over-riding principle, before Sudan's split comes back:

The other principle complicating the matter is Africa’s biggest taboo. Today, no one is willing to recognize that Mali, like many most of Africa, is an artificial construct.

Link:http://dekhnstan.wordpress.com/2013/...in-the-making/

[Firn]

The classic Western solution to the heterogeneity of Mali and the North's opinion that it's being neglected is to apply federalism:
Some autonomy for the North, reduction of commonality to defence, borders security, tariffs, official language(s), citizenship/passports, foreign policy etc.

The North would learn that it probably hasn't been exploited; that its economy is simply unsustainable due to desertification and population growth.


This solution isn't going to work, even if national elites were willing to cede some power. The North would be too close to sovereignty and the national government would fear secession (which is apparently not what they want, although I cannot tell why).

An old European solution might be more helpful; independent cities. The pattern would be the same, except that it wouldn't be the North as a whole, but only smaller entities which would get autonomy.


Now who wants to bet against my assertion that neither will happen, that the intervention of foreigners with their uncompromising aversion against all fighters which talk a lot about Qu'ran will instead be aimed at international interests:
(1) stability of the African states overall
(2) elimination of jihadist political power / territorial control

They won't give a damn about Mali's long-term issues.

A Divide et impera (and maybe impara , italian pun) autonomy should be at least feasible in theory with so many factions competing within and betwen ethnic groups.

It is difficult to compare it to European/Italian solutions but I guess that allowing those entities to relative strong financial autonomy to potentially support their autonomy in other areas might possibly work. In short they could keep a high share of their tax revenue, getting thus only indirect subventions by supporting less of the common state goods like defence etc. This would transfer a fair bit of the burden of governance to the regions, letting them the (big) chance to screw up.

Of course the chances of a success in this area are small considering the current situation, as some already wrote.

P.S: Ancora qui, by a girl from one of the (northern) autonomous regions of Italy.

[Dayuhan]

potentially support their autonomy in other areas might possibly work. In short they could keep a high share of their tax revenue, getting thus only indirect subventions by supporting less of the common state goods like defence etc. This would transfer a fair bit of the burden of governance to the regions, letting them the (big) chance to screw up.

I wonder how much tax revenue northern Mali generates. I suspect not much.

I get the impression that most of the countries with a substantial Tuareg population regard the Tuareg mainly at pests, and may see western assistance aimed at AQIM largely as an opportunity for a bit of pest control or pest eradication. In terms of reducing jihadi influence it might be well worth building Tuareg autonomy and self governance, and taking other steps aimed at resolving Tuareg grievances. Whether or not the governments in the region would be in any way interested in that outcome is of course a very large question.

[Fuchs]

Aren't the Tuareg the traders, with the actual townfolk / oasis dwellers being some other tribe?
____________

Northern Mali should be mostly evacuated, just as most semi-arid regions of the world.
Making much agricultural use of semiarid regions (with livestock) merely drives desertification. Having population growth in such areas is a recipe for long-term disaster. Even monetary transfers won't change this; there's not enough water.

The populations from semi-arid regions need to unload all their growth to more inhabitable regions and this should happen peacefully, without immigrants or left-behind people trying to transform the more densely populated regions in their image.
It's sad that Mali's densely populated regions had lost the required resilience due to the coup.

[Dayuhan]

Northern Mali should be mostly evacuated, just as most semi-arid regions of the world... The populations from semi-arid regions need to unload all their growth to more inhabitable regions and this should happen peacefully, without immigrants or left-behind people trying to transform the more densely populated regions in their image.

Wanted: Deus ex Machina. Preferably not American.

It's sad that Mali's densely populated regions had lost the required resilience due to the coup.

If they "lost the required resilience due to the coup", they probably didn't have much of it in the first place.

[Fuchs]

This whole problem may become a cakewalk if this report is accurate:


http://translate.google.com/translat...2.html&act=url

In short: "Touareg" insurrections all follow the smae pattern of greed in mali, originate all from one settlement (or those born there), Touaregs make up 5% of the North's population only and the troublemaker clan makes up 1%, is a minority and somewhat despised even amongst other Touaregs.

The government rejected to pay them off by accepting them into the army after these mercs fled form Libya with wepaonry and they began to cause trouble.
Furthermore, the associated djihadists aren't exactlys popular (quel surprise, after they destroyed traditional holy places and graves in Timbuktu?).


It could become a cakewalk, with the French simply routing them with armoured recce units.

[Fuchs]

French video, showing the terrain and stuff

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=V_THwmAjRyw

[ganulv]

the troublemaker clan makes up 1%, is a minority and somewhat despised even amongst other Touaregs.

Tuareg social structure traditionally included a caste system of which the Ifoghas were the nobility. The fact that Western elites are troublemakers and somewhat despised doesn't tend to call their legitimacy into question, what's so different about these guys?

[Firn]

I read the same article, but of course it is important to be sceptical when confronted with such facts, as it very difficult to check them. Said that I found it very hard to come up with any 'simple' guy in all the articles which had anything positive to say about the islamist forces (Yes, we have a problem with the sample selection). The bit about 11 of the 19 Northern MPs coming from the Tuareg sounds quite stark, with the central government forcing elected candidates form other ethnic groups to take the fall. I just can not believe that they make up only 5% of the population if that census in the 50s was not completely fabricated.

Overall the article fits into the picture painted earlier:

1) The rebel islamist forces are relative small but well-organized, trained and armed for Western African benchmarks.
2) The popular support for them is quite small, even in the North.
3) Most of their ressources, be it money, trained cadre, religious instruction comes from the outside, mostly from (Saudi) Arabia.

Dayuhan already mentioned the impression that the nomadic tribes in question are likely disliked by the majority of the populations in that cluster of countries. Using military force often against fellow countrymen to get money and other benefits, be it for good or bad reasons, doesn't promote much love.

[ganulv]

Dayuhan already mentioned the impression that the nomadic tribes in question are likely disliked by the majority of the populations in that cluster of countries.

Distrust of nomads is hardly limited to either the Sahel or the current-day!

[KingJaja]

A native talks about the situation there, very important article. I think we should read it and understand..........

Unlike some writings popping up with depressing regularity in English-language media, the current Mali crisis pre-dates Qadhafi’s demise, and even the appearance of Jihadis in the territory in 2003. In fact, Mali’s internal problems started even before it gained its independence from France. Azawadis sought desperately to have their own state when it became apparent that France was intent on abandoning the French Sudan. They latched on the mirage of the Common Organization of Saharan Regions (OCRS) created by the January 10, 1957 French law.

The OCRS covered areas in today’s Algeria, Mali, Niger, and Chad. Had it been retained, it would have been an Amazigh-majority state with considerable Arab, Songhai and Toubou pluralities. The project however had another purpose altogether: divide and conquer. it was a French ruse aimed at Algeria’s then independence rebellion led by the FLN. The idea was to keep the northern part of the territory as French, and offer the rest the option of independence.

http://dekhnstan.wordpress.com/2013/...in-the-making/

[SWJ Blog]

Mali Could Become the New Afghanistan, Only Worse

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[M-A Lagrange]

Ansar Dine, the Tuareg Islamist group is now facing internal divisions. A new group has emerged from within the Ansar Dine, the Mouvement islamique de l'Azawad (MIA).
According to a communique received in France they want to fight against terrorism:
"Le MIA affirme de la manire la plus solennelle qu'il se dmarque totalement de tout groupe terroriste, condamne et rejette toute forme d'extrmisme et de terrorisme et s'engage les combattre"
The MIA declares on the most solemnel form that he is not to be assimilated with any of the other terrorist groups, condamnes and rejects all forms of extremism and terrorism and engages itself in combatting it.
Translation from myself.

You can find more info and analyse on the following link (in French but thanks to Google)
Mali : les islamistes se dechirent
http://www.lepoint.fr/monde/mali-les...1619756_24.php

A new Tuareg player in the game? At least this represents a chance for Tuaregs to be able to voice their demands and be heard.

It makes long time I have not been in the Sahel and West Africa but I can say that Tuareg distrust was high 15 years ago and still was when the crisis started. But others may have fresher news.

[davidbfpo]

A very short video clip of General Ham's speech in Washington DC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21192517

We were focusing our training almost exclusively on tactical or technical matters...We didn't spend probably the requisite time focusing on values, ethics and a military ethos...When you put on the uniform of your nation, you accept the responsibility to defend and protect that nation, to abide by the legitimate civilian authority that has been established, to conduct yourselves according to the rule of law. We didn't do that to the degree that we needed to..

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21195371

A whole set of assumptions there, Western, not just American, about what a soldier in Mali does when he joins up. Importantly it ignores the fact a political settlement made in Mali led to thousands of Tuareg's being inducted into the national army.

As we now know most of them deserted, probably joining the rebels; citing a loyal Malian soldier:

All these were here before, working with us. But they deserted a year ago. Maj Traore said the men had apparently gone to join the forces of the MNLA, a Tuareg separatist group which launched a rebellion last year in northern Mali.....But when they came back here, we found they were with the jihadists, and they wanted to take revenge on us. They want easy money. They think the jihadists have money - that's all. It's not about Islam...

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21136663

[davidbfpo]

The NYT reports on a divergence between the France and the USA over the objective (slightly edited):

Jean-Yves Le Drian, the French defense minister, said recently “The goal is the total reconquest of Mali...We will not leave any pockets.”

But Gen. Carter F. Ham, the head of the Pentagon’s Africa Command, voiced more limited objectives. “We would all like to see the elimination of Al Qaeda and others from northern Mali....Realistically, probably the best you can get is containment and disruption so that Al Qaeda is no longer able to control territory.”

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/wo...mali.html?_r=0

Almost reminds me of the First Indo-China War, post-1945, when France the colonial power was amply supported by the USA with money, weapons and more, although not troops. Each had quite different objectives IIRC. This time I concede France is far richer, but has some gaps in its national armoury: heavy airlift, in-flight refuelling and (airborne) intelligence gathering.

[Fuchs]

This time I concede France is far richer, but has some gaps in its national armoury: heavy airlift, in-flight refuelling and (airborne) intelligence gathering.

Are you serious?

They beat up guys who ride technicals. Cessna 172s with hand-held cameras are high-tech aerial intelligence gathering means if compared to the threat!
Same for heavy airlift. The French can easily hire enough charter airlift, have dozens of own transport aircraft and only need to support a regiment-sized force which could largely live off the land in terms of fuel and food.
In-flight refuelling - it's obvious there's no real problem with refuelling on Algerian or other military bases.

Seriously; all the support the French are asking for from Western countries is about as serious as Turkey's request for SAM support: Nice to have, but 90% a symbolic demonstration of unity.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...ge=1&track=rss

Mali town recalls Islamist invaders as both terrifying and gentle

The militants' seizure of Diabaly during French airstrikes hints at their tactics: dig in among the population, use residents as a human shield, melt away.

A day later, with the rebels firmly in control, a pale green Toyota Prado arrived, carrying a high level commander. Rebels parked the four-wheel-drive vehicle under a tree and carefully coated it with red mud for camouflage.

"Six bodyguards went with him wherever he went, like a president," said neighbor Mousa Koumary, 48, who said he recognized the commander from pictures on television. It was Abou Zeid, the Algerian-born hard-line commander of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, he said.

Additional comments point to a well supplied and trained terrorist force, and I can't help but think some of this support is coming from states in the region. No doubt a lot of munitions came from Libya after the military lost control of it.

"There were whites and blacks among them," Dembele said of the militants. Residents said the men were Arabs, Algerians and Africans from Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria and Senegal, and spoke the local language as well as French, English and Arabic.

The multinational coalition aspect identified above, and the routes to Europe (and beyond) are what concern me most. This is potentially a much greater threat to the West than the Afghanistan base.

The mayor of Diabaly, Oumar Diakite, said the Malian army could never control the north, with its porous borders and network of smuggling routes.

"Those routes are not under the control of the army, and these jihadist people know those routes well through Algeria and Morocco and it is easy for them to get to Europe. It's a very vast zone that the army can never control," he said.

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Fuchs

Seriously; all the support the French are asking for from Western countries is about as serious as Turkey's request for SAM support: Nice to have, but 90% a symbolic demonstration of unity.

I think you got this one wrong, this is too big for France do do alone and they know it. Looks like we sent mixed messages to the French on our desire to support.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...691567614.html

Mali Exposes Flaws in West's Security Plans

As the French assault gained steam in West Africa, France sought help from its allies—only to find that the U.S. and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization states either weren't ready or couldn't offer much. Canada and the U.K. quickly ponied up three cargo planes, two of which broke down en route.

Senior U.S. defense officials dispute those accounts, saying Washington's messages to France may have been "lost in translation." During the meetings, the U.S. officials said, neither Mr. Panetta nor Mr. Sheehan directly urged France to use force and didn't promise specific support.

The prospect of a new terror war in Africa would clash with a key message of President Barack Obama's inaugural address. In his Monday speech, he said a decade of military conflict was ending and that "enduring security and lasting peace do not require perpetual war."

and of course the broke European militaries (we may be in the same boat soon)

Since the financial crisis hit in 2009, European governments have cut military spending by roughly 10% annually overall. French military spending has held up better than other countries in the bloc, declining less than 7% in total from 2009 to 2011, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

French military capabilities, however, are uneven. The country has developed advanced fighter planes. But its air refueling tankers are old and, in some cases, in disrepair, hence the request for U.S. help. Washington's reluctance has prompted the French to appeal to other allies, including the Canadians, this time for air tankers, NATO officials said.

France's airlift capacity is also severely limited.

[M-A Lagrange]

Personnaly I have a mixed feeling about Fuch and Bill statements:

Seriously; all the support the French are asking for from Western countries is about as serious as Turkey's request for SAM support: Nice to have, but 90% a symbolic demonstration of unity.

I think you got this one wrong, this is too big for France do do alone and they know it.

First of all, on the ground the first phase of the operation is getting quite good. French just took back Gao and they continue the bombing of Ansad Dine bases.

So I do not believe it's much about "combat capacity" we are talking about here. On that particular point, the requested engagement of NATO contributing countries is quiete symbolic, as Fuch pointed.
What seems obvious is the air logistic that is the real issue, as Bill pointed out.

I tend to agree with Bill and David on the fact that this demonstrates that NATO armies are all interdependant (in a good or bad way, let you make up your mind).

On a more "grand strategy" level, what happens in Mali is a concern for all Europ countries as Sahara is the door to Europ. But it is also a concern for the US as the spread of the Islamist threat in Africa is a threat for them too. But Africa is a strategic continent for all of us, including China (and Russia in a lighter level).
To me, what would be interresting is the impact of this on the expension of China over natural ressources on the continent. Leaving the "old colonial powers" dealing with the problems will come at a cost for both West and China. Could we imagine a Chinese involvement, even symbolic, in this? Or does that significates a containment of China in its already "historical allies" (Like Sudan)?