Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[davidbfpo]

This example Chowing seems to fit the 'Accidental Guerilla' thesis of David Kilcullen, a local group with a local agenda being labelled as linked to AQ. Yet again an illustration that knowledge of what is happening in the remote parts of Africa and other places, like Mali is at a premium.

[Stan]

That is exactly what the reports are saying. They are fighting for the same cause in the northern regions. That is the linkage, not of ideology or even goal. They are taking advantage the destabilization that was in the region as they began to come out of Libya.

Hey Chowing,
Do you have links to those reports ?

You should give Dr. Kilcullen's Accidental Guerrilla a read... Really good stuff !

[SWJ Blog]

The Black Flag Flies in Mali

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[AdamG]

Not the latest Disney blockbuster, but worthy of it's own thread. Get your popcorn ready now, 'cause these guys won't be home by Christmas.

West African regional leaders have agreed to deploy 3,300 soldiers to Mali to retake the north from Islamist extremists. At a summit of Ecowas, the group's chairman said it was ready to use force to "dismantle terrorist and transnational criminal networks". The soldiers would be provided mainly by Nigeria, Niger and Burkina Faso.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20292797

Time's grade school level backgrounder -

Mali’s Looming War: Will Military Intervention Drive Out the Islamists?

Read more: http://world.time.com/2012/11/12/mal...#ixzz2C1y3KMr6

[davidbfpo]

AdamG,

The second linked article by a Time journalist in Mali has this amazing line:

Northern Mali is barely a hop and skip across the Mediterranean.

Really?

Politics aside how the local population react is a good indicator, so this was a gem:

Buses to the north are now packed, filled with refugees no longer willing to wait out the now quiet conflict far from home. Their departure has left refugee camps at a fraction of their original size, say local officials.

[davidbfpo]

Paul Rogers looks at what is happening, with several links in support:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...paring-for-war

I note the stance taken by Algeria:

The entire operation would be greatly aided were Algeria to be supportive.. Algeria seems unlikely to alter its stance, however. A security advisor of Algeria's government... says that external intervention would not work and that instead a political solution must be found

[davidbfpo]

The heralded ECOWAS intervention does appear to be a rather slow process. Assembly of contributions, movement into Mali, re-equipping and training of the Malian military, negotiations with some of the militants and an EU training mission.

Any foreign-backed offensive to retake control of northern Mali from al Qaeda-linked Islamists will take at least six months to prepare, plans seen by Reuters show, a delay that runs counter to the expectations of many Malians.

Links, text from:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8AF0SD20121116 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20342369

[davidbfpo]

Mali under pressure to give separatists autonomy in fight against al-Qaida; Ecowas wants Tuaregs to help take on militants as officials say priority is to remove all terrorists

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...tists-al-qaida

This reads like "divide & rule" from my faraway armchair, but I am wary of ECOWAS having enough influence, let alone power to get Mali's cooperation, nor that there is such a "moderate" element to talk with. Interesting to note the famed Tuaregs only constitute 11% of the population in the northern area.

[davidbfpo]

Robert Fowler a Canadian diplomat seconded to the UN in Niger was kidnapped for four months in 2008, by AQIM and has written a book on his experiences 'A Season in Hell'.

It has been well reviewed on Amazon:http://www.amazon.com/Season-Hell-Ro...+robert+fowler

One review is a guide:

Robert Fowler has written a unique account of what it is to be a captive of Al Queda. Unique, because Fowler is the highest-level representative of western governments ever to be taken by Al Queda. Also, because his background as a diplomat, senior government official and UN representative was precisely keyed to the menace of islamist terrorism; he knows his subject.

The book explains in painful detail the treatment he was subjected to for four months in the Sahara desert, the motivation of his radicalized captors and the perfidious actions - as well as the heroics - of the various actors involved. Fowler `gets' the big picture, and explains it in terms that provide a wake-up call to both the threatened governments of the Sahel region and the western governments that must support them.

Link to Amazon UK:http://www.amazon.co.uk/Season-Hell-...6964229&sr=1-1

For some background on SWC there is a thread on Niger, which covers his kidnapping:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=9303.

[davidbfpo]

Robert Fowler, once a Canadian diplomat, has written an article:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/comme...rticle7015466/

He ends with advice on what the mission's objectives must be:

This must be about damaging and degrading the capabilities and numbers of al-Qaeda in northern Mali that it won’t soon threaten the peace and stability of our friends across this vulnerable region. And it must also be about helping Mali’s armed forces to reoccupy and then defend their country once the jihadis have been diminished.

It won’t be about turning Mali into Saskatchewan or Nebraska. And it won’t be about exporting our social safety net or funding a government or anything else that isn’t directly related to damaging al-Qaeda.

Not seen this before, but it makes sense - earlier in the article:

Over the past half-century, Canada and other developed countries have invested more than $60-billion in assistance to the countries of the Sahel. Does it not make sense to protect such a huge investment in the lives and welfare of something like half a billion Africans?

[ganulv]

Over the past half-century, Canada and other developed countries have invested more than $60-billion in assistance to the countries of the Sahel. Does it not make sense to protect such a huge investment in the lives and welfare of something like half a billion Africans?

Protecting a $120-per-individual investment seems reasonable, but are the investors sure that that investment has been an effective one?

[Fuchs]

Not seen this before, but it makes sense - earlier in the article:

Over the past half-century, Canada and other developed countries have invested more than $60-billion in assistance to the countries of the Sahel. Does it not make sense to protect such a huge investment in the lives and welfare of something like half a billion Africans?

It's the classic sunk costs fallacy. Irrationality at work. Keep the man away from influence, he would do a lot of nonsense.

[Stan]

Seems Robert, other than being a captive in denial, has no clue. He will no doubt end up being a future Clinton adviser on Africa and we'll do the dance yet again at the expense of the taxpayers.

during my 130 days as their captive, that such was their aim: to extend the turmoil of Somalia from Mogadishu on the Indian Ocean to Nouakchott on the Atlantic.

All we need to do is dump billions into the continent to the point that no single person or terrorist group can compete, and we win the jackpot and all that comes with that ridiculous hypothesis. Not like we have yet to attempt such a fiscal nightmare only to be slapped in the face with a hungry dictator.

Jeez, why is this so hard to figure out

[davidbfpo]

Just found a short CFR report that Nigeria is reducing its ECOWAS contribution from 600 to 450:http://blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2013/0...edge-for-mali/ Note I have yet to see a single ECOWAS soldier arrive in Mali.

Then the Canadian SOF have a small training team in place:

..they are primarily there to advise Malian troops and provide training in communications, planning and first aid....providing counter-terrorism skills training and officer training. The teams number fewer than 15 soldiers.....small teams will continue to move in and out of Mali as the country requires training.

Link via South Africa:http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.ph...mber_202260698

[SWJ Blog]

Can ECOWAS replicate the success of AMISOM in Mali?

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[SWJ Blog]

Can ECOWAS replicate the success of AMISOM in Mali?

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[SWJ Blog]

French Operations in Mali Roundup

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[Firn]

I took yesterday a virtual tour of northern Mali to get a better understanding of the geography and the demographics going with it. If we estimate that somewhat less of a million live in those three nothern provinces then it is important to point out that the vast majority of those is of course living along and south of the Niger. Dayuhan already cited the conflicts between Tuareg and islamist groups to which one has to add the mixed ethic and linguistic make-up.

So the population living under the de-facto rule of the militant groups is rather small and it is difficult to find prove of wide-spread support, certainly not of a single faction or movement. To achieve their recent military success the specific groups didn't to need much manpower or much popular support. To me it seems likely that the jihadis are relative few, transnational, well armed and decently trained and led for the standards of the regions. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

[KingJaja]

Russia to help with transport in Mali. http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/01...roops-to-mali/

How significant is that?

[davidbfpo]

Kingjaja,

Press TV for once is catching up with it's report, Russian private aircraft have already been helping. What would be significant is if the Russian Air Force contributed heavy airlift capability.

As I posted earlier privately operated Antonov heavy lift aircraft are a regular feature in UN and non-UN expeditions - including NATO, not sure about the USA.