Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[KingJaja]

This seems fairly recent:

MOSCOW, January 20 (RIA Novosti) – French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Moscow has offered its help to Paris in transporting French troops and supplies to crisis-hit Mali.
"The Russians have proposed to provide means of transport for the French," Fabius said in the interview with Europe 1 radio on Sunday.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has not made official comment on the statement, which was made following Saturday’s phone conversation between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his French counterpart.
During the conversation, the sides voiced support for the UN Security Council’s resolution authorizing the deployment of an African-led international Support Mission in Mali (AFISMA).
Last week France launched the deployment of 2,500 troops to Mali to help the country's army contain a sudden advance of Islamists from the Tuareg heartland in the north.
The French involvement was endorsed by the ECOWAS, a bloc comprising 15 West African countries, including Mali. The bloc called on the UN Security Council on Saturday to fast track the release of logistics and financial packages to support Africa-led Mission in Mali.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20130120/178...s-to-Mali.html

Still waiting for comments from the Russians (as to what sort of help)

[Fuchs]

Kingjaja,

Press TV for once is catching up with it's report, Russian private aircraft have already been helping. What would be significant is if the Russian Air Force contributed heavy airlift capability.

As I posted earlier privately operated Antonov heavy lift aircraft are a regular feature in UN and non-UN expeditions - including NATO, not sure about the USA.

The USAF chartered lots of big Antonovs for air lift into AFG all while lots of Americans chastised Europeans for having insufficient logistical means for stupid wars in distant places.


Read the correct blogs and you would know

[davidbfpo]

Mali has become 'Sahelistan' or is at risk of becoming so? Well if this report is accepted this is not a matter of "black or white". Sounds more like the Yemen, Pakistan and a few others places the West is entangled with. Hostages ransoms shared with the government, sorry persons in the government.

Note this is December 2012 report.

For years Malian Tuaregs have been complaining that their government was in bed with al-Qaeda, but their cries fell on deaf ears. According to numerous northern residents, AQIM fighters have been circulating openly in Tuareg towns, not for the past year, but for the past 10 years; shopping, attending weddings, and parading fully armed in the streets, in front of police stations and military barracks.

Colonel Habi ag Al Salat, a Malian army commander who defected in 2011 to join the MNLA, was one of the first to notice the Algerian fighters from the Salafi Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) entering Tuareg towns of the far north such as Aguelhoc, which was under his command.

But when Habi warned his army superiors they told him to stand down and leave the men alone because they were "not enemies" of Mali. When the GSPC changed its name to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, following a pact announced by Ayman Al Zawahiri, that policy did not change.

Link:http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/spo...157169557.html

The conclusion, with my emphasis:

The one armed force that has both the numbers and local knowledge to credibly expel al-Qaeda from a wide swath of the Sahara and keep them out over the long term would be the region's indigenous Tuareg fighters.

But giving them a mandate to do that would mean recognising and empowering them as a force with legitimate demands, which neither Mali, nor any neighbouring country wants to do. Meanwhile the Tuaregs have a sinking feeling: The fear that they are the ones who will be killed in any coming war, in the name of fighting al-Qaeda.

[Fuchs]

The classic Western solution to the heterogeneity of Mali and the North's opinion that it's being neglected is to apply federalism:
Some autonomy for the North, reduction of commonality to defence, borders security, tariffs, official language(s), citizenship/passports, foreign policy etc.

The North would learn that it probably hasn't been exploited; that its economy is simply unsustainable due to desertification and population growth.


This solution isn't going to work, even if national elites were willing to cede some power. The North would be too close to sovereignty and the national government would fear secession (which is apparently not what they want, although I cannot tell why).

An old European solution might be more helpful; independent cities. The pattern would be the same, except that it wouldn't be the North as a whole, but only smaller entities which would get autonomy.


Now who wants to bet against my assertion that neither will happen, that the intervention of foreigners with their uncompromising aversion against all fighters which talk a lot about Qu'ran will instead be aimed at international interests:
(1) stability of the African states overall
(2) elimination of jihadist political power / territorial control

They won't give a damn about Mali's long-term issues.

[SWJ Blog]

Mali Could Become the New Afghanistan, Only Worse

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[SWJ Blog]

Who’s on First? Or Why Fences Matter More Than Al-Qaeda in Mali

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[davidbfpo]

An unidentified drone is detected flying inside Mali, then shot down inside Mali and SOF inserted to collect all the debris. No-one says whose drone it is - so far.

Ah you ask, who possibly would do this? Well according to this report, Algeria:http://avicennesy.wordpress.com/2013...-au-nord-mali/

This is a rather odd incident if true. Why would Algeria shoot down a (US) drone over Mali?

[Stan]

David,
Based on what we have been told (need to be careful with that statement lately), Algeria is one of the top three for drone deployments against what is now called a "security threat".

Sorry, but no SOF teams... just a bunch of soldiers leaving and blue helmets coming in from all over creation.

Regards, Stan

[davidbfpo]

Apparently the Algerians first noted drone activity in the south in 2004, partly as "facilitators" were not very discreet in transit.

More recently there has been the traffic between the refugee camps around Tindouf, for the Sahrwis (from former Spanish Sahara), where the appeal of their Marxist-Leninist leadership has diminished for some of the younger generation and the appeal of the insurgents / bandits across the Sahel has had an impact.

General background:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahrawi_people

As one observer explained there are no border in the Sahel, it is a three day journey in a modern vehicle. Note the Sahrwis are not Tuareg's.

[davidbfpo]

The American missions have not been without incident. On April 9, one of the drones crashed in a remote part of northern Mali, presumably because of a mechanical failure. “It was a total loss,” one Air Force officer said of the wreckage.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/11/wo...&smid=tw-share

The Algerians responding of course to assist with security and returning any wreckage recovered.

Quite different from being shot down!

[Stan]

Never thought something like this website existed

Seems drones are not that successful !

[CrowBat]

This is a rather odd incident if true. Why would Algeria shoot down a (US) drone over Mali?

Except for a crash in this case, an alternative reply would be - just for example (and provided it was Algeria at all) - that there is a very clearly defined 'no go' area for US forces along the border between Algeria and Mali.

This zone is up to 150km wide (on N-S axis) in NW Mali, and between 30 and 80km wide in N and NE Mali. There are four commercial corridors through it though (all on N-S axis).

Washington (and Paris) agreed to respect this zone (in exchange for rights of US [and French] planes to 'cut the corner' over SW and SE Algeria), and usually respected it so far: the EP-3s from Rota were not flying there, the MQ-1s and RQ-4s from Sigonella were not flying there etc. Surely, back in March this year, the US several times requested 'special permission' to fly its E-8s and EP-3s into that zone, and these were sometimes permitted to approach to less than 20km to the Algerian border.

Algerians are cooperative in regards of pursuing common enemies, but there are limits of this cooperation.

[davidbfpo]

Two different reports; the murder of two French journalists last week appear to have acted as a catalyst and for a moment Mali is in the foreground.

Nothing is simple, crime, terrorism and money intersect:

It’s possible that the two murders were in retaliation for what could be understood as a breach of contract. It’s also possible that the huge amount of money simply convinced some other group to try its luck.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/11/op...it_ee_20131111

Or the tribal / communal nature of politics in Mali:

As a result of France's political decision not to “arm-twist ” Bamako into talks with the MNLA, a large swathe of Mali is currently ungovernable making a return of Touareg extremist groups like groups Ansar Dine and MUJAO very likely.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-aw...siness-in-mali

[davidbfpo]

A UK FCO paper 'Traffickers and Terrorists: drugs and violent jihad in Mali and the wider Sahel', which is short and interesting:https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...Terrorists.pdf

It ends with:

Winning the war against both trafficking and
terrorism will mean building and maintaining the legitimacy of the state in the region.

Nothing like setting an impossible task! Why not persuading the locals the opposition are bad for them? Too much wine, bye.

[KingJaja]

David,

At the root of a lot of the problems in the Sahel region is state legitimacy and the deeper issue isn't whether the states could be made to function better but whether they should exist in the first place.

The US will learn this somewhere along the line and abandon this region to former colonial masters, who will then abandon it when they get tired.

It's back to the 100 years war and the Peace of Westphalia.

[SWJ Blog]

The 2012-2013 Mali Conflict: Considerations on the Human Battlespace and Strategic Outcomes

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[SWJ Blog]

Air Force's Forgotten Mission to Mali

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[Fuchs]

http://www.cdef.terre.defense.gouv.f...eration-serval

[davidbfpo]

Fuchs,

A good catch the official French post-action report, which does have an English summary.

I'd missed that what appear to be lorry-borne heavy artillery was deployed and the logistic aspect is covered.

[Fuchs]

Fuchs,

A good catch the official French post-action report, which does have an English summary.

I'd missed that what appear to be lorry-borne heavy artillery was deployed and the logistic aspect is covered.

I get their newsletter, automated my 'catching' here.

Language barriers are troublesome, so I make a conscious effort to penetrate them.