Sanctuary (or perhaps just area) denial operations at the Afghanistan village level

[Surferbeetle]

Beetle:

Good recap. I ran into John Adams last April. We were discussing the disconnects between US mil/foreign reconstruction efforts and basic economic geography. Would make a big difference is things connected better.

Reality, as Paul Krugman became famous in the econ world for noting, is that geographic differences create their own limitations/ opportunities that define outcomes in particular places and in different way (duh!)

Funny how the more technically sophisticated we become as a society, the less our bureaucracies seem to remember the basics.

Steve,

If you are up for it, I would appreciate any links to case studies and/or additional economic geography concepts which would be of assistance in examining business clustering.

The Army has some 'in-a-box' micro concepts which are useful and valuable however the deeper analysis which helps to predict sustainability needs additional work. Finding military case studies or doctrine for how to examine existing local economic systems or identifying/quantifying/modeling key nodes and linkages in order to start/restart such systems is not a high payoff activity. FM 3-07, FM 3-24, and the CA FM's have some info which facilitate a METL crosswalk (work breakdown structure and business mapping) but I am finding that I have to go to internet and physical clusters of like-minded individuals in order to find that which is needed.

I watched the concept of business clusters in Mosul with construction companies and thought more about it while working on a business plan for a (future) company in order to complete my MBA. My business plan included a recon (site & google earth photo's, equipment comparisions, price surveys, real-estate searches, vehicle title searches, traffic comparisons, weather pattern reviews, noting existing businesses and searching for future business openings in the area of interest) followed an analysis which included stating assumptions, crunching numbers (sensitivity analysis and monte carlo analysis) and comparing the results to standard financial ratios for the industry.

It's all interesting stuff with a real world payoff...

[Surferbeetle]

Assessing and Targeting Illicit Funding in Conflict Ecosystems: Irregular Warfare Correlations by David L. Grange and J.T. Patten

In December 2008, the Deputy Secretary of Defense issued a “Directive-Type Memorandum” whose subject was a DoD Counter-Threat Finance (CTF) Policy that included priority purposes to counter financing used by illicit trafficking networks in support of adversaries’ activities, which may negatively affect U.S. interests. Countering threat finance included memorandum policy to deny, disrupt, destroy, degrade, and defeat these adversarial networks with many “counters” relying on tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) that follow Irregular Warfare concepts. Targeting and assessing the greater illicit funding mechanism within conflict ecosystems demands the same below-the-waterline tacit knowledge, situational understanding, and intelligence creation that most complex and unconventional operations require while keeping local populations out of the fray.

[davidbfpo]

Taken from MikeF's citation of the new Marjah report, which i will read when able to:

These measures should also include “camps in a box” to provide shelter, food, water and active engagement with displaced people to help them move to the camps or, when possible, to return to their homes.

Can I ask, no remind, readers that serious thought is given to the information aspects of 'camps in a box'. Do they really have to be delivered by the military? Are there not capable partners outside ISAF and GIRoA? Years ago the UK-based NGO Islamic Relief had a large support programme in place.

I am very wary of the concept and practice of 'camps in a box' being easily labelled locally by the Taliban and other enemies as 'Protected Villages' etc.

[MikeF]

Can I ask, no remind, readers that serious thought is given to the information aspects of 'camps in a box'. Do they really have to be delivered by the military? Are there not capable partners outside ISAF and GIRoA? Years ago the UK-based NGO Islamic Relief had a large support programme in place.

I am very wary of the concept and practice of 'camps in a box' being easily labelled locally by the Taliban and other enemies as 'Protected Villages' etc.

Good catch David. This action could be viewed with shades of Briggs and Malaya. It can be one of those unitended consequences of trying to help but hurting. I've done a little bit of reading on the NGO and Int'l relief efforts in Kashmir and Haiti after earthquakes. It is interesting to see how good samaratan actions can be misconstrued.

Early on in my last deployment to Iraq, while the situation was deteriorating, probably early OCT 2006, we were enroute to an emergency Nahiya meeting to try and persuade the local governments to remain intact and ride out the storm. While on Blue Babe Highway, we noticed a truck headed east packed full like the Beverly Hillbillies. I had the convoy stop so that I could talk to the driver.

He was a father and farmer who had all of his family and possessions in the truck. I asked him where he was headed.

"Sadi, I'm leaving Zaganiyah and moving to Baghdad. It is far safer there."

That scene stuck with me for a long time as I tried to comprehend what perceived fears must persist to have one risk everything to attempt to move his family to safety.

Displaced persons is something we typically do not consider in planning and execution.

v/r

Mike