Yemen - a catch all thread for 2007-2011

[Jedburgh]

Chatham House, 19 Nov 08: Yemen: Fear of Failure

• Yemen presents a potent combination of problems for policy-makers confronting the prospect of state failure in this strategically important Red Sea country. It is the poorest state in the Arab world, with high levels of unemployment, rapid population growth and dwindling water resources.

• President Saleh faces an intermittent civil war in the north, a southern separatist movement and resurgent terrorist groups. Yemen's jihadi networks appear to be growing as operating conditions in Iraq and Saudi Arabia become more difficult.

• The underlying drivers for future instability are economic. The state budget is heavily dependent on revenue from dwindling oil supplies. Yemen's window of opportunity to shape its own future and create a post-oil economy is narrowing.

• Western governments need to work towards an effective regional approach with the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, in particular Saudi Arabia.

• Future instability in Yemen could expand a lawless zone stretching from northern Kenya, through Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, to Saudi Arabia. Piracy, organized crime and violent jihad would escalate, with implications for the security of shipping routes, the transit of oil through the Suez Canal and the internal security of Yemen's neighbours.

[Jedburgh]

OCHA, 5 Nov 09: Yemen - Sa’ada Emergency: Situation Report #12

Highlights/Key Priorities

• A United Nations cross-border assessment mission, facilitated by the Governments of Yemen and Saudi Arabia, took place in northern Sa’ada (Al-Mandaba, Alb) between 26 and 29 October.

• The security situation in Sa’ada and neighbouring governorates is deteriorating, causing serious constraints to humanitarian assistance. Tens of thousands of displaced people have been on the move, and the winter season is fast approaching.

• In Al-Jawf Governorate, access remains limited to only one district (Al-Matammah).

• Discussions are ongoing over the location for a new camp in Amran. Local authorities have allowed the UN and INGOs to assist IDPs in host communities outside the existing government camp in Khaiwan, which hosts some 50 families.

• The draft 2010 Yemen Humanitarian Response Plan (YHRP) is under review.

CRS, 7 Jul 09: Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations

[Rex Brynen]

Also useful background:

Yemen: Defusing the Saada Time Bomb

International Crisis Group, Middle East Report N°86 , 27 May 2009

Away from media headlines, a war has been raging on and off in Yemen’s northern governorate of Saada since 2004, flaring up in adjacent regions and, in 2008, reaching the outskirts of the capital, Sanaa. The conflict, which has brought about extensive destruction, pits a rebel group, known generically as the Huthis, against government forces. Today’s truce is fragile and risks being short-lived. A breakdown would threaten Yemen’s stability, already under severe duress due to the global economic meltdown, depleting national resources, renewed tensions between the country’s northern elites and populations in the south and the threat from violent groups with varied links to al-Qaeda. Nor would the impact necessarily be contained within national borders. The country should use its traditional instruments – social and religious tolerance, cooptation of adversaries – to forge a more inclusive compact that reduces sectarian stigmatisation and absorbs the Huthis. International actors – principally Gulf states and the West – should use their leverage and the promise of reconstruction assistance to press both government and rebels to compromise.

After two decades of relative stability that confounded foreign diplomats and analysts alike, the convergence of economic, political and secessionist challenges are testing the regime’s coping capacity. The Saada conflict might not be the most covered internationally, but it carries grave risks for Yemen’s political, sectarian and social equilibrium.

Executive summary and link to full report here (registration required for the full report).

[Jedburgh]

Executive summary and link to full report here (registration required for the full report).

The full report is also hosted by Relief Web - no registration necessary for access. However, ICG is an excellent resource, and registration is free and painless - and provides you full access to their archived reports.

[Jedburgh]

CEIP, Sep 09: Yemen: Avoiding a Downward Spiral

Key Conclusions:

- There are increasing indications that al-Qaeda is regrouping in Yemen. Recent counterterrorism measures in Saudi Arabia have forced extremists to seek refuge elsewhere, with a steady flow relocating to Yemen’s under-governed areas.

- The ceding of authority by the weak central government to local government has proved counterproductive by limiting control over volatile under-governed territories.

- The security situation is rapidly deteriorating. Fighting with Shi’i rebels in north Yemen has strained the army, and Yemen is unable to protect its coast from the recent surge in piracy.

- The poorest in the Arab world, with unemployment at 35 percent, Yemen’s economy has been severely effected by the dramatic fall in oil prices and has few sustainable post-oil, economic options.

- Yemen is running out of water. Rising domestic consumption, poor water management, corruption, the absence of resource governance, and wasteful irrigation techniques are creating frequent and widespread shortages.

- Yemen’s lack of food and water is complicated by the population’s dependence on qat, a quick-cash crop that requires heavy irrigation to thrive. Farmers devote so much land to qat production that Yemen is now a net food importer.

[Jedburgh]

Waq al-Waq

This blog was started for a few reasons. We both have been studying Yemen for years, and as the country has risen in importance, the quality of discussion has declined. We wanted to contradict some other individuals, blogs and commentators who have no experience in Yemen or with Arabic, and who turn the facts to fit their opinions. We feel that presenting a thoughtful and nuanced discussion of Yemeni affairs, based in knowledge of its history and culture is in the best interest of all. That said, this is not an academic blog, and provides a lighter tone than our other publications, and also allows us to indulge our unhealthy interests in medieval swords and mysterious islands that color Yemeni history.
Enjoy.

[Jedburgh]

CEIP, Nov 07: Between Government and Opposition: The Case of the Yemeni Congregation for Reform

Like Islamist parties across the Arab world, Yemen’s Islamist Congregation for Reform (Islah) has a religious ideology and platform. Islah participates in legal politics in hopes of accomplishing constitutional and socioeconomic reforms, and over time it has committed itself to upholding democratic procedures internally as well as externally.

Yet Islah differs from most other Arab Islamists. The party combines tribal influences along with those of the Yemeni Muslim Brotherhood and more radical Salafi groups. As a result, it faces deep internal divisions on key issues, including its relationship with the ruling establishment, its role in the opposition, and the participation of women in politics. Moreover, Islah is not simply an opposition group; until 1997, the party was a junior partner in a ruling coalition.

Under Yemen’s authoritarian regime, President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his General People’s Congress dominate political life, and there are no effective checks and balances among the different branches of government. Since its move to the opposition, Islah has had no choice but to cooperate with the regime in order to gain a degree of infl uence in key political choices. Yet its fractious composition prevents it from developing a clear parliamentary platform, forcing it instead to balance tribal and political interests, differing interpretations of the party’s Islamist platform, and both loyalist and opposition constituencies. As a result, no one knows where the party stands, and it has no clear path toward the reforms it seeks....