War between Israel -v- Iran & Co (merged threads)

[Jedburgh]

USIP Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention - Iran Policy Forum

On January 16, 2007, the United States Institute of Peace inaugurated its Iran Policy Forum, a group of government and non-governmental experts that will meet regularly to discuss current issues relating to Iran.

During this meeting, USIP and the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) conducted a briefing on new data from their survey of Iranian public opinion. This survey, fielded in conjunction with Search for Common Ground and an Iranian research agency, breaks much new ground and covers a wide array of international policy issues. Public opinion polling in Iran that is fully available to international audiences is rare. This survey is based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons obtained through in-depth, in-person interviews, and the methods and questionnaire are fully documented. During this meeting, PIPA presented top-line results of this unique contribution to ongoing policy debates about Iran.

In coming months, USIP and PIPA will be authoring further analyses detailing the national regional findings of this survey on vital issues such as Iran’s nuclear program, attitudes toward the U.S. and international institutions such as the UN and the IAEA, among others.

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 15 Feb 07: Iran's Developing Nuclear and Missile Programs

US Strategic Options

•Play out negotiating options without accepting proliferation:
–“Good cop, bad cop”and “arm wavers”help.

•Seek to lead allies to firmer action if Iran does not cave.
–Overcome the legacy of Iraq
–Prepare for bringing issue to the UN.
–Consider backup-plan if UN action/sanctions do not work

•Improve intelligence, seek hard facts and “smoking guns.”
–Same data needed for negotiating, arms control and targeting.
–Look at missiles, chemical and biological weapons, not just nuclear.

•Restrict overt and covert acquisitions of Iranian weapons?.

•Preserve and improve military options.

•Develop missile defenses –extended deterrence.

•Support regime change/Iranian factions who are against a nuclearprogram

•Act through proxies

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 2 Mar 07: Iran: Weakling or Hegemon?

...Viewed from the perspective of its capabilities, rather than its intentions, Iran presents five major kinds of current and potential threats:

• The first is as a conventional military power. Iran has limited capabilities today but could become a much more threatening power if it modernized key elements of its forces and its neighbors did not react.

• The second is as an asymmetric threat that can seek to intimidate or attack using unconventional forces. Iran has established a large mix of unconventional forces that can challenge its neighbors in a wide variety of asymmetric wars, including low-level war of attrition.

• The third is to some extent an extension of the second. Iran’s asymmetric and unconventional capabilities give it the ability to use proxies and partners in the form of both state and non-state actors. Iran’s support of Shi’ite militias in Iraq, ties to elements in the Iraqi government, partnership with Syria, and ties to the Hezbollah in Lebanon are all practical examples of such activities.

• The fourth is a potential nuclear power armed with long-range missiles. Iran is a declared chemical weapons power. Its biological weapons efforts are unknown but it seems unlikely that it remained passive in reaction to Iraq’s efforts. It has openly made the acquisition of long-range missile a major objective, and its nuclear research and production programs almost certainly are intended to produce nuclear weapons.

• Finally, Iran presents a potential religious and ideological threat in a region and Islamic world polarized along sectarian lines. For all of the talk about a clash between civilizations, the potential clash within Islam seems far more dangerous. The risk that Sunni and Shi’ite extremists can provoke a broader split between sects and nations could push Iran into a more aggressive religious and ideological struggle.

These are potential threats, not predictions of Iranian actions. They all can be contained with the right choice of policies and military actions. Barring major shifts in its regime, Iran not only is deterrable, but a nation that will probably respond to the proper security incentives over time. The real question may well be whether Iran’s neighbors and the US provide the right mix of deterrence and incentives, and not Iran’s current and potential strength....

[SWJED]

Here is a copy (via the Washington Post in pdf) of the IAEA report released today on Iran's nuclear program.

VOA has this:

A report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency concludes that Iran has expanded uranium enrichment since December, when the Security Council ordered a freeze on such activities. The six-page report says the Tehran government has continued construction of a nuclear reactor that could produce material used in weapons.

Iran has repeatedly denied having any intention to build nuclear weapons, and maintains its enrichment activities are aimed at producing energy.

But the six-page report written by IAEA Director Mohamed ElBaradei says Iran's refusal to cooperate has left the agency unable to verify that its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes. The report also says Iran has installed two uranium enrichment networks at its underground nuclear facility in Natanz, although no uranium has been fed into the system.

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 5 Mar 07: Israeli and US Strikes on Iran: A Speculative Analysis

...There are no risk-free military options for Israel, the US or neighboring states. Tehran's known nuclear research facilities are dispersed around the country, generally large, and have constant new construction. Many key sites are underground and many others may be unknown or are not identifiable. IAEA inspections have identified at least 18 sites, but others argue that there might be more than 70. A great deal of the equipment other than major centrifuge facilities is also easy to move or relocate. Iran may already be playing a shell game with key research facilities and equipment, constantly changing the targeting pattern.

Tehran has had a quarter of a century to learn from the experience of Israel's attack on Iraq in 1981. Iran may have built redundant sites, underground facilities, and constructed high level of protection around its known nuclear research centers. Others have argued that Iranian nuclear sites may have been deliberately built near populated areas or in facilities with many other “legitimate” purposes so Israel and the US would be confronted with the problem of collateral damage or being charged with having hit an “innocent target.” The previous chapters have also strongly suggested that many of Iran's research, development, and production activities are almost certainly modular and can be rapidly moved to new sites, including tunnels, caves, and other hardened facilities....

[SWJED]

12 May NY Times - Cheney, on Carrier, Sends Warning to Iran by David Sanger.

Vice President Dick Cheney used the deck of an American aircraft carrier just 150 miles off Iran’s coast as the backdrop yesterday to warn that the United States was prepared to use its naval power to keep Tehran from disrupting oil routes or “gaining nuclear weapons and dominating this region.”

Mr. Cheney said little new in his speech, delivered from the cavernous hangar bay of the John C. Stennis, one of the two carriers in the Persian Gulf. Each line had, in some form, been said before at various points in the four-year nuclear standoff with Iran, and during the increasingly tense arguments over whether Tehran is aiding insurgents in Iraq.

But Mr. Cheney stitched all of those warnings together, and the symbolism of sending the administration’s most famous hawk to deliver them so close to Iran’s coast was unmistakable. It also came just a week after Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had talked briefly and inconclusively with Iran’s foreign minister, a step toward re-engagement with Iran that some in the administration have opposed...

[Jedburgh]

Transcript of a Brookings Institution event held on 5 Jun 07:

A Long, Hot Summer: What the Lebanon and Gaza Crises Mean for U.S. Policy in the Middle East

As the Lebanese Armed Forces battle al-Qaeda-inspired Islamic militants near Tripoli, and violence between Fatah and Hamas heats up to a level that may force Israel to carry out a ground incursion into Gaza, it is clear that this is going to be a difficult summer in the Middle East. With the status quo shaken and instability spreading, how can the United States adapt its policies to stem the spread of violence and help cool the sweltering tensions in the region?

Moderator: Carlos Pascual
Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution

Panelists:

Martin S. Indyk
Senior Fellow and Director, Saban Center for Middle East Policy

Robert Malley
Middle East and North Africa Program Director, International Crisis Group

Hisham Milhem
Washington Bureau Chief, Al Arabiya

Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy

[AdmiralAdama]

Iran moves closer to Nuclear Bomb

Iran claimed today to have stockpiled 100kg of enriched uranium, enough in theory to create two nuclear bombs of the kind that destroyed Hiroshima.

An exhibition in Teheran in 2005 to commemorate the Iran-Iraq war: Iran has moved closer to acquiring the ability to build a bomb
A war exhibition held in Iran in 2005

The news will once again stoke fears that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime is seeking to build a nuclear weapon.

Iran would need 50kg of weapons-grade uranium in order to make one nuclear weapon equal in power to the one dropped by the Americans in 1945.

[walrus]

With the greatest of respect. The report of this matter did not specify that what was in Iran's posession was weapons grade uranium, and in any case the Iranians have since denied it.

That's not going to stop us bombing Iran however.....

[AdmiralAdama]

Iran's Hormuz fleet includes more than 1,000 heavily armed speedboats

The U.S. Navy has determined that Iran has amassed a fleet of fast patrol boats in the 43-kilometer straits. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, responsible for strategic programs, leads the effort.

At this point, officials said, IRGC has deployed more than 1,000 FPBs in and around the straits. The vessels, armed with cruise missiles, mines, torpedoes and rocket-propelled grenades, are up to 23 meters in long and can reach a speed of 100 kilometers per hour.

[Ironhorse]

So they were listening to Millenium Challenge, eh?

[Rob Thornton]

Damn, there goes my frachise idea Well, back to my neon & car stereo shops then

[Ken White]

From the NY Times:

LINK

"""Hard Realities of Soft Power

As a senior adviser to the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, David Denehy is charged with overseeing the distribution of millions of dollars to advance the cause of a more democratic Iran. Affable, charming and approachable, he is bearlike in stature and manner. His voice is pleasantly rumbly; his smile is so wide that it seems to have been drawn onto his face with a crayon. Over the last two years, Denehy has canvassed dozens of pundits, students, journalists, bloggers and activists across the world about how he might best go about his work — what he calls, echoing President Bush, “the freedom agenda.” He has shaken hands with millionaire exiles, dissidents, monarchists, Communists, self-styled Mandelas and would-be Chalabis. He is the public face of “the democracy fund,” as it has come to be known, or simply “the $75 million.”

On Feb. 14, 2006, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice went before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and called for $75 million to be spent on advancing freedom and human rights within Iran. Though this would be the third year of requests for such financing, previous appropriations had been much smaller, ranging from $1.5 million to $11 million; $75 million was a considerable jump. “We are going to work to support the aspirations of the Iranian people for freedom in their own country,” Rice told the assembled senators. The initiative would pour $36.1 million into existing television and radio programs beaming into Iran, while $10 million would pay for public diplomacy and exchange programs, including helping Iranians who hope to study in America. (“I’ve read that it is forbidden in some quarters to play Beethoven and Mozart in Tehran,” Rice said. “We hope that Iranians can play it in New York or Los Angeles.”) Perhaps most contentiously, $20 million would support the efforts of civil-society groups — media, legal and human rights nongovernmental organizations — both outside and inside Iran."""

[Lastdingo]

So Rice wants money from the US taxpayer to pay muslim Iranians - citizens of a soo-called rogue state - to live and work in theUS.
This in a time when many consider muslim foreigners as potential terrorists.

Who does still believe that this administration is sincere in fighting terrorism and not focused on offensive great power games like trying to install puppet regimes in so far unfriendly places?

[Ken White]

Lots of different ways to do things; it doesn't have to be your way -- or mine -- to work or even be right.

We do a lot of dumb stuff but I do believe anyone who had delusions of installing puppet regimes in unfriendly places has been pretty thoroughly disillusioned...

[Tom Odom]

Lots of different ways to do things; it doesn't have to be your way -- or mine -- to work or even be right.

We do a lot of dumb stuff but I do believe anyone who had delusions of installing puppet regimes in unfriendly places has been pretty thoroughly disillusioned...

Agreed and I feverently hope we are both correct

Tom

[goesh]

The Jerusalem Post is reporting that al-Shammari of the Islamic Army in Iraq has claimed to al-Jazeera that al-Maliki's loyalties are with Iran.....

Word is out too that ol' Dagan, head spook of Mossad, had some of his lads on the ground in that recent IDF strike in Syria and not just using lasers to tag bunkers......

Assar Iran, a news website, is telling the world that Iran will fire 600 missles at Israel if attacked. Their Shihab missles reportedly have a 1300km range.....

French Foregin Minister Kouchner has said the Iran crisis forces the world to prepare for the worst......

The JP is also reporting that the US and Jordan have signed an agreement so Jordan can start a nuclear program......

My advice to young male readers is to buy some Gold coins for your family to have and head to the nearest Recruiting station

JP link:http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

[goesh]

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull
"Speaking to The Jerusalem Post ahead of next week's Seventh Annual International Institute of Counter-Terrorism (ICT) Conference at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, former Mossad chief and current ICT chairman Shabtai Shavit says only military force can stop an Iran bent on achieving nuclear capability.

Looking across the Middle East, Shavit argues that the US cannot afford to retreat from Iraq to "Fortress America"; decries the Israeli government's lack of a pro-active strategy against Hamas in Gaza; and says an open conflict between Fatah and Hamas in the West Bank is not far down the road.

It hasn't always been easy to convince partners that Iran was developing nuclear weapons, says Shavit, who directed the Mossad from 1989 to 1996. Even today, there are people who still believe the Iranians are enriching uranium for energy purposes.

"When the first Gulf War ended in 1991, we raised the red flag: The Iranians were taking steps to achieve unconventional weapons capability. People looked at us like aliens who landed here from outer space. Nobody believed us. And when nobody believes you, what can you do? You carry on monitoring and collecting intelligence, analyzing and accompanying processes. Along this road you eventually manage to convince people of your assessment, and you win over supporters, both at home and in America. One morning they wake up and say, 'Oh, that's right, the Iranians really are working to produce a nuclear bomb, as well as surface-to-surface missiles with warheads that can carry nuclear bombs.' At that stage the issue becomes very relevant, very acute and very pressing," he says.

Nothing short of military intervention will stop the Iranians from obtaining a nuclear weapons program, says Shavit, careful with his choice of words: military intervention, not war - as war carries with it connotations of land, sea and air forces. He is equally cautious with his use of the word "stop" - as in stop the Iranian nuclear march. He prefers "set it back."

[JJackson]

A view from the other side.

A proud nation once a great global power. In more recent times Iran has had its natural resources plundered by western powers, democratically elected a popular leader to have him assassinated by the west and replaced with the west’s totalitarian puppet whose security apparatus inflicted atrocities upon the people, eventually overthrown by a popular uprising. A war of aggression by a neighbour – again with the west backing the aggressor – and surrounded by Sunni states which are being armed to the teeth by western powers with high end weapons.
Now they are endeavouring to develop a domestic energy production program in accordance with IAEA & NTP rules and having sanctions imposed upon them, they have stated they have no nuclear weapons intentions. The countries pushing for sanctions are trading with, and arming states, that have developed nuclear weapons outside the NTP and making noises about attacking them and regime change in contravention of the UN charter they have signed up to. These same countries are accusing them of state sponsored terrorism while being the main exporters of the exactly that. Why is it OK to arm and train the Mujahideen in an attempt to overthrow a Soviet puppet in Afghanistan but not to remove the occupying coalition forces in Iraq? We are back to the one man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter argument.

Personally I not convinced that Iran might not try and build a bomb and if I was Iranian – given their history and the US, French and Israeli positions I would be in favour of it as the only viable means of self-defence – it would not be of any greater concern than the Israeli or Pakistani bombs. While the US has such disparity in conventional military hardware and declares its unilateral declaration of independence from the jus cogens through its adoption of the doctrine of pre-emptive war, not being a nuclear power seems a dereliction of duty by any state that the US might view unfavourably.

I know the above is not likely to be popular given this forums political equilibrium but I am here not as agent provocateur but to try and understand the position of those who do not think like me.

[Rex Brynen]

I know the above is not likely to be popular given this forums political equilibrium but I am here not as agent provocateur but to try and understand the position of those who do not think like me.

On the contrary, it is spot-on in terms of the viewpoint of a great many Iranians. Analytical/assessment work is about what the other folks are thinking/doing, not about what you would like to think they are thinking/doing.

Great post.