War between Israel -v- Iran & Co (merged threads)

[Fabius Maximus]

Excerpt from "The Fate of Israel"
http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/fabius_fate_of_israel.htm


The Palestinians show us the raw power of a primal strategy, a belief in a shared dream. They dream about the extermination of Israel. That is the official goal of Fatah, the former ruling party. Which is in turn losing strength to Hamas and Hezbollah, who seem even more dedicated to eliminating Israel. Their primal strategy forges the Palestinian people into a powerful weapon, against which Israel has few defenses. ...

Why is this so difficult to see? This quote from Col Hammes explains this blindness of western experts to Middle Eastern 4GW, one that applies equally well to the Palestinians and the Iraqi insurgents.

"Today’s insurgents do not plan for the Phase III conventional campaigns that were an integral part of Mao’s three-phased insurgency. They know they cannot militarily defeat the outside power. Instead, they seek to destroy the outside power’s political will so that it gives up and withdraws forces. They seek to do so by causing political, economic, social, and military damage to the target nation.

"After being driven out of Fallujah in November 2004, Abu Musad al-Zarqawi (sic) wrote, “The war is very long, and always think of this as the beginning. And always make the enemy think that yesterday was better than today.” "

“Dealing With Uncertainty”, Marine Corps Gazette, November 2005
http://www.smallwarsjournal.com/documents/hammes1.pdf

[Jedburgh]

From CSIS, dated 9 Feb 06: Palestinian Authority and Militant Forces

...A largely secular and pro-peace Palestinian government was suddenly and unexpectedly replaced by a radical Islamist group whose charter still effectively called for Israel's destruction. Some leaders in Gaza and the West Bank did indicate that they would consider a mutual ceasefire. However, Hamas's formal leader, Khaled Meshal, who was based in Damascus, stated that Hamas would not abandon its struggle with Israel and would transform its armed wing into a national Palestinian army.

The political and military map of both the future of the Palestinian's future and the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is now uncertain and may well remain so for years. It may also lead to a major redefinition of how Palestinian forces are shaped and defined. There is no inherent dilemma in labeling a resistance movement as either "freedom fighters" or "terrorists." History has consistently shown that activists can be both at the same time, and that democratic forces can be as ruthless in using terrorist and asymmetric means as authoritarian ones. History provides equal warnings that there is no way to predict how much given movements like Hamas and the PIJ will or will not moderate over time, or whether they will become more extreme and violent.

There is no doubt, however, that Hamas's victory is a further catalyst in a fundamental change in the Arab-Israeli military balance. For years, there has been the steady shift away from a focus on conventional warfighting between Israel and Egypt, Jordan, and Syria, to a focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This conflict has helped drive Israel's neighbors to maintain large conventional forces as a deterrent, but it has also increased their internal security problems. At the same time, it has interacted with the rise of Neo-Salafi Islamist terrorism and efforts to dominate the Islamic world. Like the interaction between Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran; the shifts in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have become regional as well as internal. At the same time, the Palestinians have been driven primarily by local tensions and dynamics. They have never been anyone's proxies; they use as much as they are used...

[Stratiotes]

Politics are never easy to decipher.

For isntance. In our country we argue sometimes vehemently over abortion and our politicians use some wild rhetoric and fear-mongering on both sides about how their consistuents need to vote for them if they want change. Once voted in, the politician has a litany of excuses why he cannot do all the things he promised he would do during the campaign but maybe if he's reelected he will... In the end, neither side does all they promise because to do so would eliminate a hot button issue that is always good for votes - solving the problem would cost them votes so it is counterproductive to solve the problem. My suspicion is the rhetoric will continue with Hamas but I don't think things will get any worse than they already are or would be without Hamas in power. As soon as Hamas gets its stated goals, it will be a group of fanatics without a cause to rally followers - it would be self-defeating. They want to promote their cause but they want power more than the cause. Politicians are all pretty much alike on that score - IMHO.

[Fabius Maximus]

Mark-

You are, of course, right that politics is never easy to understand.

However you are making one of the classic big mistakes of assuming the other side are like us.

Perhaps so, but it is just an assumption. And we know what happens to soldiers sent in on nothing but assumptions ...