View Poll Results: Who Will Win? That is, in possession of the land?

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  • Israel

    3 30.00%
  • The Palestinians

    1 10.00%
  • Two States

    4 40.00%
  • Neither, some other State or people rule.

    0 0%
  • Neither, mutual destruction.

    1 10.00%
  • One State, two peoples

    1 10.00%
  • One State, one people (intermarriage)

    0 0%
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Thread: War between Israel -v- Iran & Co (merged threads)

  1. #81
    Council Member Stu-6's Avatar
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    Justified? Yes, smart? That is a different question all together. The possible exception to the justified argument would be the attacking Lebanese targets since their ability to influence Hezbollah is debatable at best. Hamas and Hezbollah however would constitute legitimate targets since by attacking and taking prisoners they committed an act of war against Israel.

    I think the US is viewed as a sponsor of Israel throughout the Arab world; and due to our ridiculous policy towards them I can understand why.

  2. #82
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    Default Legalities

    The United Nations charter prohibits the use of force in the settlement of disputes between nations, with two exceptions. Force is legally permissible when the United Nations Security Council has authorized it through a mandatory resolution under Chapter VII of the Charter. Force is also legally permissible in "self defense." The UN Charter does not define self defense so international lawyers turn to customary international law, which has produced a substantial body of writing on the subject.

    Self defense between nations as a legal concept arose during the 19th century (Daniel Webster was instrumental in the creation of the doctrine). The Caroline incident makes for a fascinating story in itself, but I'll skip the burning steamship going over Niagra falls and get straight to the boring legalities, which boil down to necessity and proportionality:

    1) The use of force must be necessary to remove the threat. That means that lesser options like warnings, etc. must be insufficient.

    2) The use of force must be proportional to the threat. If a half dozen commandos sneak across the border you can chase them down with forces of your own, but you can't nuke the opposition.

    There have been refinements and accretions over the years. Many decades ago, it was determined that the use of force in reprisals is illegal. The US invasion of Afghanistan was conducted on self defense grounds, even though the government of Afghanistan itself was arguably innocent of involvement in the various September 11 attacks. The rescue of hostages held in a foreign country is generally legal, as is the evacuation of foreign noncombatants from a war zone. It's also permissible to help another country defend itself, even if the helping country hasn't been attacked (this is known as collective self defense). Finally, force is legal if a host country grants permission.

    Israel's response to attacks on its territory by Hamas and Hezbollah present a difficult case study. I'll start with Gaza (and ignore questions of Palestinian sovereignty, treating Gaza as part of a bona fide nation state because that's by far the majority position).

    Taken in isolation, the kidnapping and murder of a handful of soldiers is indeed sufficient to merit a forceable response in self defense. Certainly a commando raid to try to rescue their trapped soldier would be allowed. So would an attack on any identifiable Hamas units that might be poised to launch another such sneak attack. However, a large scale offensive (as has been conducted) seems quite out of proportion to the level of threat involved. But of course, Hamas hasn't limited themselves to simply that one operation - they've launched a large number of rockets at civilian targets. Given that ongoing and continuous pattern of attacks, Israel would be justified in a much higher level of force. Pretty much any sort of search and destroy operation to take down the rocket teams themselves is allowed. Likewise, trying to cut supply lines to the teams. None of this deals with the requirements of the Laws of Land Warfare to mitigate harm to civilians, of course.

    Israel's seizure of high level Hamas leaders, however, does not appear to be necessary to achieve the cessation of rocket attacks or the rescue of their soldier. Likewise, attacks on power stations, water supplies and so forth have no place in national self defense of this sort.

    Lebannon is a different case study. Air strikes against bridges and airports may be necessary (tactically and therefore legally) to prevent the movement of their soldiers from beyond help of rescue. However, these attacks are NOT proportional to the harm inflicted by Israel's air attacks. Israel would do better to make efforts to mitigate the civilian losses caused by these measures - for example psychological operations to convince civilians to evacuate the affected area. Attacking non-Hezbollah targets in Lebannon would be legitimate under the same rationale as attacking Taliban targets to get at al Qaeda in Afghanistan.

    In a real sense, this is a completely academic discussion. You can't be put in "international jail" and no one can compel Israel to defend its actions in court. However, that doesn't mean that international law is without important consequences! Other nations shape their reactions based on the conduct of the nations that are parties to a conflict. Europe, especially, is sensitive to concerns of international law. Various middle eastern nations with a stake in seeing Israel suffer can use this "violation" as a propaganda tool and to justify sending assistance to their side. Of course, Israel may have concluded that Europe and the Middle East will view any armed response by Israel as immoral, vicious and wrong (not far from my assessment, actually), and also that Europe and the Middle East will not do a damned thing in response to violations by Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebannon, Syria or Iran (completely true).

    So, to sum up:

    1) State sponsors of terrorism are legitimate targets, with or without UN approval.
    2) Nevertheless, military operations must be necessary (to stop the threat) and proportional (to the threat).
    3) Not all of Israel's operations have met this dual standard. However, the ramifications of those violations are (in this instance) minor at best.
    4) The U.S. would be justified in sending our forces to Mexico to rescue 40 hostages - or 1 hostage. However, we'd have to be quite careful in how much damage we inflicted along the way.
    5) As for the U.S. as a state sponsor of Israel, no doubt it looks that way. However, Israel's actions are acts of war rather than terrorism. I can't give you a precise definition explaining why because no one has a precise definition of terrorism.
    6) Nevertheless, terrorist organizations will use these latest attacks to recruit individuals to attack Americans and America based on our "sponsorship."

  3. #83
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    Excellent response; however, I am biased towards answers founded in things like "the law."

    Question concerning State sponsorship - the US currently extends "protected persons" status to the MEK in Iraq, a designated FTO. The Iranians in particular have grievances with the MEK, so if they attacked us for protecting them, would they in fact be committing a lawful act by attacking a State sponsor of terrorism?

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strickland
    Question concerning State sponsorship - the US currently extends "protected persons" status to the MEK in Iraq, a designated FTO. The Iranians in particular have grievances with the MEK, so if they attacked us for protecting them, would they in fact be committing a lawful act by attacking a State sponsor of terrorism?
    In your hypothetical situation.....If we permit / encourage / train, equip and target - the MEK to launch terrorist attacks in Iran out of Iraqi territory, and provide them protection when they come back across the border into areas under our control, then Iran would be fully justified in their counter-attack.

  5. #85
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Default I say Yes

    Jed, I would agree because we would in fact be engaging in a conspiracy to attack another country without a declaration of war.

  6. #86
    Council Member Tom Odom's Avatar
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    Default Another view

    This recent explosion of violence is an excellent example of one article in SWJ Magazine on expedient responses. I agree that Iran is probably pulling the strings here and in doing so it is a classic case of using unconventional means to provoke a heavy response.

    Viewed in terms of strategy, it is ultimately in Israel's best interest to encourage and facilitate both a healthy Palestinian and a healthy Lebanese government. That means a strategy that is willing to accept tactical losses along the way as a means toward achieving strategic goals. Call it strategic patience as we teach tactical patience in developing a tactical situation.

    But instead Israel responds tactically with overwhelming force. That satisfies the Israeli domestic community and others who first say do something without putting it in a longer context. The result is of course tactical victory for Israel and strategic victory for her enemies. It has taken years to move Lebanon toward a more stable and powerful government; such an event is in the strategic interest of Israel. It would provide a more secure border and it would buffer Syrian adventurism. Repeated tactical application of force against Lebanese infrastructure and political force against the government only strengthens Hizballah. The very same dynamic is taking place in Gaza.

    This is why several months ago when the question of whether Israeli strategy is working, I responded that Israel does not pursue a strategy beyond repetitive application of force.

    best
    Tom

  7. #87
    Council Member Stu-6's Avatar
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    Good point about satisfying the domestic community or as Tip O’Neil put it “all politics is local”. On of the major weakness of democracies in international relations is the urge to respond to respond constituents who are often demanding that their government “do something”. This can causes ill thought out actions centered around short term results, or election cycles not long term strategic interest.

  8. #88
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    Default Strategic opportunity

    I think Israel and Lebanon stand to gain from Israel's destruction/disarmament of Hezballah. The UN resolution in place already requires that Lebanon disarm Hezballah and take over the border patrols. If Israel is successful that should happen and both Israel and Lebanon will be better off. Hezballah is an Iranian proxy and its destruction is a plus for everyone but Iran. The Lebanese are very unhappy with what Hezballah has done and right now that group is getting the blame for not only the destruction currently occurring, but also for ruining the tourist trade which is important to the Lebanon economy.

    While it is still not clear how Israel intends to remove the 10,000 Iranian/Hezballah rockets on its northern border, it does appear that Israel is isolating and preparing the battlefield for that eventuality. It is also possible that Israel may be able to discover whether Iraq WMD has really been hidden in the Bekka Valley as several intelligence sources have suggested.

    The important thing that needs to happen now is that Israel not be stopped before it completes its destruction of Hezballah. The chances are remote to non existant that Hezballah will ever be a peaceful neighbor with Israel. Their issues are based in ingrained religious bigotry, which has convinced them that any tolerance for Israel's existance condemns them to hell.

  9. #89
    Small Wars Journal SWJED's Avatar
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    Default Quoting Merv...

    The important thing that needs to happen now is that Israel not be stopped before it completes its destruction of Hezballah.
    I may take some grief on the board - but I am in complete agreement on this issue. I have read and read, studied and studied all of the arguments concerning a political solution to the Hizballah situation. There is no doubt in my mind that they have to be erased (read- extreme prejudice) from any Middle East peace equation.

    Of course that means that Iran and Syria have to be dealt with - and that is the 'wild card' - but they have to be dealt with - firmly - as diplomacy seems to escape both of these state-sponsors of terrorism.

    With our commitments to the GWOT and its extensions in Iraq, Afghanistan, HOA, SEA, and South America we can hardly afford to concentrate on (or encourage) long-term negotiations with a non-state entity that is sworn to erase the nation of Israel. Same – same with the state-sponsors – there are many indications that the current situation was sponsored by Iran and Syria as a diversion from their own particular problems in dealing with the civilized nations…

    On edit - Did I forget to mention we have to deal with the DPRK too? Same-same since 1994 - extortion that even the Sorpanos would be proud of...
    Last edited by SWJED; 07-15-2006 at 07:53 AM.

  10. #90
    Council Member cmetcalf82's Avatar
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    Default Non-State Entity

    Of course that means that Iran and Syria have to be dealt with - and that is the 'wild card' - but they have to be dealt with - firmly - as diplomacy seems to escape both of these state-sponsors of terrorism.
    While I agree completely that Hizballah, Iran, and Syria all need to be dealt with how do we convince other nations to help while we are strung so thin? Israeli action is not generating support for dealing with the root problem - which is Hizballah's continued existence and ability to strike Israel from Lebanon.

    No one, and especially the U.S., can truly fault Israel for their actions which have been taken to protect not only their military but their civilan population. It seems that not enough attention is paid to the fact that there is a U.N. Resolution that called for Lebanon to disarm/control Hizballah - something they have not done. Would the U.S. stand by and allow any organization to launch rocket/mortar attacks from Mexico or Canada?

    Viewed in terms of strategy, it is ultimately in Israel's best interest to encourage and facilitate both a healthy Palestinian and a healthy Lebanese government
    Finally I again agree it is in Israel's strategic interest to see a stable and healthy Lebanon and Palestine, but how long can they be expected to tolerate attacks from the territory of a soverign nation before they act?

  11. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by SWJED
    I have read and read, studied and studied all of the arguments concerning a political solution to the Hizballah situation. There is no doubt in my mind that they have to be erased (read- extreme prejudice) from any Middle East peace equation.
    If only it were that easy. Remember, Hizballah is a legitimate political party in Lebanon and holds several elected seats in the Lebanese parliament. They have also been heavily engaged in public works over the past decade+, especially in South Lebanon - building schools, funding small farmers and sending kids to overseas universities. To top all that off, to many Lebanese (not just Shi'a) they are viewed as Heroes for facing up to the IDF and forcing their withdrawal from the occupation of South Lebanon.

    Sure many Lebanese haven't been happy with their retention of an armed militia antagonizing Israel along the border. They are also not exactly pleased with the continuing influence of Syria and Iran that the activities of the militia imply. However, the Lebanese people are also very strongly nationalistic - and the current Israeli blockade and destruction of infrastructure - along with the comcomitant civilian casualties - only serves to unite Lebanese factions against Israel.
    Quote Originally Posted by SWJED
    Of course that means that Iran and Syria have to be dealt with - and that is the 'wild card' - but they have to be dealt with - firmly - as diplomacy seems to escape both of these state-sponsors of terrorism.

    With our commitments to the GWOT and its extensions in Iraq, Afghanistan, HOA, SEA, and South America we can hardly afford to concentrate on (or encourage) long-term negotiations with a non-state entity that is sworn to erase the nation of Israel. Same – same with the state-sponsors – there are many indications that the current situation was sponsored by Iran and Syria as a diversion from their own particular problems in dealing with the civilized nations…
    "Our commitments" is the key phrase. We are already spread out attempting to manage the problems that have arisen from attempting to execute complex strategic missions with a minimal footprint in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The drain on our intel and SOF assets for those missions puts a strain on arguably more critical under-the-radar missions around the globe - and effectively makes it almost impossible to execute anything meaningful in the area under discussion. But to give even the appearance through speech and actions that Israel is our proxy in this matter will do incalculable damage to our image in the entire region.

    Tom hit the nail on the head - we need a strong government in Lebanon. Once again, we failed to exploit an opportunity - the "Cedar Revolution" and the withdrawal of Syrian forces. At the time, I'm sure it appeared to be too much of an effort given "our commitments". However, the current Israeli approach, although it will certainly disrupt Hizballah, has no chance of "erasing" it. On the contrary, the short-term disruption of the organization will be exchanged for long-term strengthening of its support networks after the inevitable cease-fire takes effect.

    Part of this will be due to the weakening of the Lebanese government by Israeli attacks, and part due to Iranian funding enabling Hizballah to launch an immediate humanitarian campaign. This occurred after "Operation Grapes of Wrath", when the Israelis conciously set out through calculated destruction in the south to create large refugee flows that would put pressure on the Lebanese government regarding Hizballah. Their strategy failed utterly, and after the cease-fire, Hizballah rebuilt all the homes that had been destroyed by the Israelis, repaired infrastructure, and increased subsidies to students and farmers - all while the Lebanese government was still trying to figure out how to go about the recovery.

    Yes, Hizballah's military wing needs to be disarmed, and the political organization needs to either be brought fully into the Lebanese mainstream and de-linked from its foreign patrons - or it needs to be delegitimized and its support cut away. Unfortunately, in the long-term strategic view, the current Israeli campaign will only have the opposite result.

  12. #92
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    Default Lebanon and Hezballah

    Lebanon's Prime Minister has asked for a UN sponsored cease fire that would give Isreal just about everything it has asked for in regard to Hezballah. While the wording is probably still a little murky, it calls for the removal of Hezballah from the border with Israel to be replaced by Lenanon's army. It also calls for the enforcement of the prior UN resolution that required the disarmament of Hezballah. That appears to give Israel its main strategic objectives. Other parts of the proposal may be more problamatic especially the prisoner exchange. If a mechanism can be found for enforcing the disarmament of Hezballah, I would say this deal is a clean win for Israel. It is also a win for Lebanon. The main loser is Hezballah which at best gets the prisoner exchange it wanted, but at a very high price. If Syria and Iran have their main proxy disarmed they also come out the loser in the proposed deal. If Hezballah is disarmed, its war making capacity should be effectively destroyed.

  13. #93
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    From CSIS:

    Commentary by the director of its MidEast program:

    Different Conflict: A Commentary on the Latest Cycle of Arab-Israeli Violence
    Where Israel finds itself now is much where the United States found itself after September 11, as articulated in the two versions of the National Security Strategy the White House has issued since. National security threats from non-state actors are just as difficult as ones coming from states, and in many ways they are more difficult to resolve. The old notions of rogue states and state sponsors of terrorism break down in the face of complex networks of like-minded, but sometimes loosely coordinated groups. The solution is not so simple as negotiating with groups bent on their destruction—something Israel is unlikely to do, and should not do. At the same time, they need to engage in policies that undermine the support these groups enjoy. Military might has its limits.
    A longer paper from Cordesman: Lebanese Security and the Hezbollah
    ...Lebanon needs to develop forces that can secure its borders, and act as a deterrent to any further Syrian and Israeli incursions. It needs forces that can bring the Hezbollah and Palestinian paramilitary and terrorist elements under control and fully disarm them, and that can ensure that Iran, Israel, and Syria cannot use Lebanon as a proxy in their conflicts and struggles. Once again, this requires national unity from a nation that has been self-inflicted sectarian wound for more than half a century. Lebanon also faces the following more detailed strategic challenges:

    • Continuing to train and organize truly integrated and national military, paramilitary, and security forces.

    • Removing officers and elements penetrated by Syrian intelligence and subject to Syrian influence.

    • Establishing full military and security control over both the Syrian and Israeli border areas.

    • Disarming Hezbollah and Amal, seizing the hidden military assets of other militias.

    • Preventing Palestinian military or terrorist activities from being planned and supported in Lebanon, and infiltration across Lebanon’s borders with Israel.

    • Organizing and modernizing its military forces to deter Israeli and Syrian military incursions, including air and naval forces capable of deterring incursions into Lebanese air space and waters.

    • The risk Jordanian territory or air space could be involved in any exchange between Iran and Israel, and that if Iran develops nuclear armed missile, Jordan might have to deal with an inaccurate missile or fall out.

    Lebanon cannot prepare for large-scale conventional war, or even play a significant military role on the periphery of a broader Arab-Israeli conflict. It can, however, become involved in such a war if Iran, Syria, and or the Hezbollah involve the Hezbollah in a serious proxy war with Israel or missile attack on northern Israel.

    If Lebanon is to be a player, rather than simply played, it must develop equate capabilities to deal with internal security threats and to deter a limited expansion of a conflict between its neighbors into Lebanese territory, waters, or air space. The key to such success is bringing the Hezbollah under central government control, disarming the Hezbollah and the concealed weapons stashes in other militias, and putting Lebanese central government forces truly in control. It must also be to fully expel the remaining Syrian and Iranian intelligence and security presence in the country, and stop the expansion of Sunni Islamist extremist activity before it becomes yet another threat...

  14. #94
    Council Member Tom Odom's Avatar
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    Dave,

    No grief. I have little love for Hisballah after Rich Higgins' murder. The issue is simply one of capability; chances of Israel "wiping out" Hisballah given the history behind the organization and the Shia in Lebanon--and Israel--are slight.

    The greatest hope for containing Hizballah is through a strengthened Lebanese government and therein lays the tactical versus the strategic dilemma. Beirut has been moving to reduce Syrian influence and it has been costly along the way. The Shia in Lebanon have long been on the low end of the totem pole; they originally welcomed the 1982 invasion as a way of getting rid of the PLO. When the IDR made things permanent, Hizballah with Iranian training and money came into being. Its ties to Syria are similarly colored by religious affiliation. The Syrian government is a minority Shia affair that has long sought to encompass at least the Shia strongholds in Lebanon to bolster its hold over Syria.

    Lebanese capacity to reduce Syrian and Iranian influence has made some gains. A direct challenge to Hizballah is not in the Lebanese military's capabilities list ---without risking a renewed civil war and a large scale return of Syrian troops, neither of which is in the strategic interest of Israel.

    As for a UN force doing the job, I will believe that when I see it. First of all UNIFIL has been in south Lebanon and Israel never allowed the UN force to create a continuous zone across the south of Lebanon. Instead, Israel kept the Litani River valley open so that its forces had immediate access to the south end of the Bekka valley. It would take a major shift in tactics (mandate) for UNIFIL to secure the area, especially given the range of the rockets hizballah has been shooting.

    as for Israel "tolerating attacks from a sovereign nation," Israel is the local super power in the Middle East but its power base is entirely military. Developing a more centered stance based on "soft" power ---say by working with the Lebanese government--is Israel's greatest chance for reducing these type of attacks. That however would take a major shift of internal Israeli politics, one I fear is unlikely to happen.

    In sum, I don't see a neat outcome to this one. I may be wrong but my experience on the ground in southern Lebanon makes me less than optimistic.

    best

    Tom

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    ICG, 25 Jul 06: Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss
    ...This report pieces together the strands of this multiheaded crisis in Israel, the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon and elsewhere, based on talks with officials and others, including Hamas and Hizbollah representatives. There are many dimensions to the explanation of why the
    capture of three soldiers has, so suddenly and so intensely, escalated at an extraordinary pace into a deep and widespread conflict: local ones like Hamas’s struggle to govern and Hizbollah’s desire to maintain its special status in Lebanon; regional ones, notably the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict, Syria’s interests in Lebanon, and the growing Sunni-Shiite divide; and wider international ones, especially the confrontation between Washington and Tehran....

  16. #96
    Small Wars Journal SWJED's Avatar
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    Default Group Says Iran Is 'Not a Crisis'

    16 August Los Angeles Times - Group Says Iran Is 'Not a Crisis' by Peter Spiegel.

    (SWC Note: While most certainly connected to and meant to influence the mid-term congressional elections, this story is presented here for discussion...)

    Seeking to counter the White House's depiction of its Middle East policies as crucial to the prevention of terrorist attacks at home, 21 former generals, diplomats and national security officials will release an open letter tomorrow arguing that the administration's "hard line" has actually undermined U.S. security...

    Retired Army Lt. Gen. Robert G. Gard, one of the letter's signers and a former military assistant to Defense Secretary Robert S. McNamara in the 1960s, said the group was particularly concerned about administration policies toward Iran, believing them to be a possible prelude to a military attack on suspected nuclear sites in that country.

    Gard said the signatories — who included retired Marine Corps Gen. Joseph P. Hoar, head of U.S. Central Command from 1991 to 1994, and Morton H. Halperin, a senior State Department and National Security Council official during the Clinton administration — did not believe that Iran had the wherewithal to build a nuclear weapon in the immediate future and would push the administration to open negotiations with Tehran on the issue.

    "It's not a crisis," Gard said in a telephone interview. "To call the Iranian situation a 'crisis' connotes you have to do something right now, like bomb them." ...

  17. #97
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    Default Israel Plans for War with Iran and Syria

    23 August Los Angeles Times commentary - Israel Should Hit Syria First by Max Boot.

    "We are walking with open eyes into our next war."

    The pessimism of a senior Israeli official who made that comment on Aug. 13 was striking because he had just finished telling a group of security analysts brought to Israel by the American Jewish Committee that the United Nations-brokered cease-fire had achieved many of Israel's goals. But he had no illusions that this would represent anything more than a temporary halt in the fight between Israel and the Quartet of Evil seeking to dominate the Middle East — Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah.

    The war wasn't a total loss for Israel. But it was far from a victory. Hezbollah lost more than 500 fighters as well as most of its medium- and long-range missiles and its bunker network in southern Lebanon, while inflicting scant damage on Israel. Israeli intelligence analysts are convinced that Tehran isn't happy about this turn of events because it was holding Hezbollah's rockets in reserve for a possible retaliatory strike if Israel or the U.S. hit Iran's nuclear weapons complex.

    But rockets are easily replaced, and Iran and Syria will now undertake a massive effort to make good Hezbollah's losses, and then some...

    Israel had managed to defeat the terrorists' previous wonder-weapon, the suicide bomber, by walling off the Gaza Strip and West Bank. But a fence won't stop missiles. Israel will now be loath to retreat any further from the West Bank. Hamas, for its part, will have strong incentive to stockpile rockets in its Gaza redoubt and launch a "third intifada," as suggested by a columnist in the Hamas newspaper Al Risala.

    Israel had hoped that this conflict would reestablish its deterrence, but, if anything, the unsatisfactory outcome will only embolden its enemies. The problem is that wars of attrition against fanatical jihadists who do not fear death and who hide among civilians negate to some extent the Israeli Defense Forces' superior firepower. Additionally, Iran, the ultimate source of terrorist money and arms, is too far away for effective Israeli retaliation.

    Syria, however, is a weak link in the quartet.

    Syria's importance as an advance base for Iran — the two countries concluded a formal alliance on June 16 — cannot be exaggerated. It is the go-between for most of the munitions flowing to Hezbollah. It is the sanctuary of Hamas honcho Khaled Meshaal. It is also, according to Israeli intelligence sources, the home of a new Iranian-Syrian intelligence center that tracks Israeli military movements and relays that information to terrorist proxies...

    History suggests that only force, or the threat of force, can win substantial concessions from Syria. In 1998, Turkey threatened military action unless Syria stopped supporting Kurdish terrorists. Damascus promptly complied. Israel may have no choice but to follow the Turkish example...

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    Default No guarantees

    The current Assad regime has been consolidating its power base for some years now. Immediately after 9/11/01 Syria became an important partner in working against al Qaeda. Bashar Assad also briefly courted the idea of a more open Syrian society.

    Now, Syria is the prime conduit for foreigners who wish to wage Jyhad in Iraq against US forces. Syria has also cemented an alliance of convenience with Iran (Syria is governed by a ruling clique that subscribes to a sect of Shiite Islam). Syria has also continued to commit espionage and murder in Lebannon as well as supporting Hezbollah directly in its war with Israel.

    I think it's pretty clear that the Assad regime is basically weak - militarily, economically and politically. Thus, their choices are based on survival rather than desire. It's extremely disturbing to note that Syria's realignment indicates that in their judgment the West will not be successful in the Middle East.

    Moreover, Israel would stand to gain only in a very limited set of circumstances in any conflict with Syria. If Israel uses too much force, the Assad government could fall. In the current climate, I can see no way in which a successor government would be more friendly to Israel. Too little force, however, and the Assad government will only be emboldened. Worse, Syrian public opinion is at issue: a weak reaction by the Assad government could leave them open to charges of cowardice and prompt internal rebellion. Worse, such a rebellion would likely be successful if the most effective (and loyal) elements of the Syrian military are destroyed. Finally, even in a situation of complete anarchy in Syria (akin to Iraq, say), arms could still be transshipped by Iranian agents. In fact, it seems fair to suggest that Iran would have an easier time supplying Hezbollah through such chaos. While there would be considerable "shrinkage" from banditry, bribes and Israeli interdiction, such shipments would still be impossible to track and stop.

    For the moment, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas are able to club Israel with impunity. Israel's strategic situation is unfavorable because it's ability to use force is constrained by international and domestic pressure - constrained to a level below that which is sufficient to deter, defeat or even significantly degrade any of its enemies apparently.

  19. #99
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    Default Good Stuff...

    I got much more out of your reply than from Boot's commentary - good analysis - thanks.

  20. #100
    Council Member Uboat509's Avatar
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    I agree with everything that Jones said except for the last line. "Israel's strategic situation is unfavorable because it's ability to use force is constrained by international and domestic pressure - constrained to a level below that which is sufficient to deter, defeat or even significantly degrade any of its enemies apparently."

    I am not sure that international pressure played much of a role in their halting their advance into Lebanon. I'm not sure that international pressure plays a role in anything Israel does. Internal pressure seems to have been pushing them on not trying to halt them. Israel has always had a keen survival instinct and, to my mind at least, has never allowed foreign or even domestic opinion interfere with that instinct. I suspect that the constraints on Israel's military are more economics coupled with an acute awareness that part of Israel's defense is predicated on the appearance of invincibility. I'm not saying that Israel is weak, far from it but it has taken on mythological prowess. To hear some people tell it the only thing that is stopping the IDF from single handly taking over the ME and destroying Islamic terrorism once and for all is liberal public oppinion in Europe and New England. As you wander the blogesphere you will hear many people speaking in awed tones of just how invincible the IDF really is and people get really defensive about it. When I posited on another website that Israel's military may have some serious problems and posted the articles posted here as evidence I was attacked. I did not say or imply that Israel was in the wrong to attack Hizbullah or that Israel didn't have a right to defend itself, I simply suggested that Israel has some problems that it needed to adress in its military. You would have thought that I was the Jonbennet Ramsey killer. I suspect that if you replace the awe with hatred then you will have the Arab view of Israel. But this is not 1967. Israel's enemies aren't armed with the old saggers any more. The IDF is still better than any of it's enemies and Israeli air power is still unmatched but Lebenon served to illustrate that technology allows Israel's enemies to make up some of the distance between them. More than that it showed that however powerful the IDF is, it is not invincible. Am I saying that Syria or Iran could attack and destroy Israel? Of course not but any large scale fight is likely to be bloody and costly for Israel in men, material and treasure. It's not an option that they are going to seek out. They are constrained by the fact that they don't want the Arab world's hatred of Israel to overcome thir belief in Israel's invincibility. That's how I see it anyway.

    SFC W

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