War between Israel -v- Iran & Co (merged threads)

[Stu-6]

It seems to me there maybe a comparison here with the US and Iraq. By this I mean it is a frustrating problem and military forces may look like a quick solution due to past victories. The problem with this, as has been seen in Iraq, is just because you can take down a problem regime doesn’t mean you can create a more favorable situation, and can easily make things worse. Obviously this is not an ideal comparison since there are a lot of differences, just a lesson about unintended consequences.

I don’t think there is any kind of limited strike option here; since the Assad regime would likely be very threaten internally if they didn’t respond very aggressively to an Israeli strike. After seeing HAMAS and Hezbollah rise to power by attacking Israel while the PA and Lebanese government were pushed aside, only a foolish Arab government would not offer a massive response to an Israeli attack, make rapid escalation all but unavoidable.

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 1 Nov 06: Israel/Hizbollah/Lebanon: Avoiding Renewed Conflict

UN Security Council Resolution 1701 halted the monthlong fighting between Israel and Hizbollah but did little to resolve the underlying conflict and, if poorly handled, could help reignite it. The resolution has held remarkably well, with only limited violations. However, the temptation by either party to overreach could trigger renewed fighting. The greatest threats would be attempts by Israel or UN forces (UNIFIL) to use 1701 as a blunt means of disarming Hizbollah in the south or by Hizbollah to test UNIFIL’s resolve. 1701 should be seen as a transitory instrument that can stabilise the border by containing both sides’ military impulses until bolder action is taken to address both domestic Lebanese matters (reforming and democratising the political and electoral systems; building a strong sovereign state and army; resolving the question of Hizbollah’s armaments) and, especially, regional issues (in particular re-launching the Syrian track and engaging Iran). In short the international community must be modest in implementing 1701 for as long as it is not prepared to be ambitious in its regional diplomatic efforts...

[aktarian]

I just wonder how Iran could be kept out of this war. they have good relations with Syria at least since 1980s and Iran is financing some of Syrian arms purchases (mostly air defences). And once Iran gets into it it's anybody guess what their reaction will be. Making troubles in Iraq? Making troubles in Persian gulf (as in threatening shipping)? Making troubles in gulf states? direct confrontation with Israel?

[Jedburgh]

U.S. accuses Syria, Iran, Hezbollah on Lebanon

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States on Wednesday accused Syria, Iran and Hezbollah militants of plotting to topple the Lebanese government and warned them to keep their "hands off."

The United States has held up Lebanon as an example of emerging democracy in the Middle East.

"We are therefore increasingly concerned by mounting evidence that the Syrian and Iranian governments, Hezbollah, and their Lebanese allies are preparing plans to topple Lebanon's democratically elected government," White House spokesman Tony Snow said in a statement...