A bunch of unemployed Arabs take to the streets in Mideast cities chanting death to Israel and a bunch of unemployed Americans take to the streets in US cities, holding up placards that blame it on Bush.
Israel
The Palestinians
Two States
Neither, some other State or people rule.
Neither, mutual destruction.
One State, two peoples
One State, one people (intermarriage)
Iranians lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz
A bunch of unemployed Arabs take to the streets in Mideast cities chanting death to Israel and a bunch of unemployed Americans take to the streets in US cities, holding up placards that blame it on Bush.
Shoot Sunburns and such at tankers
Financial markets open and oil starts heading towards $100 barrel, insurance rates sky rocket for tanker and cargo ships in the gulf
I'm not convinced that Hizbullah retaliates on Iran's behalf--it would do the organization political damage in Lebanon to be seen to be acting so clearly at Tehran's best, and so clearly at odds with Lebanese national interests. It might in the event of a sustained Israeli air campaign, rather than a one-off attack.
Israeli embassies (or Jewish community centres) explode? Similar sorts of attacks? Possibly.
Mining the Straits? Very much depends on the size of the strike, and whether it is seen as a one-off or a continued campaign.
Shahb 3s fired at Israel (possibly even at Dimona)? Certainly possible, although they're not likely to hit anything.
Much also depends on whether the US is seen as complicit. In the latter case, we might see sponsored attacks against the US in Iraq and Afghanistan, and possibly even opening of a major arms/money/logistical pipeline to the Taliban, notwithstanding past Iranian-Taliban (and Shiite/Sunni) differences.
Major commitment of Iranian resources to construct a nuclear weapon, and develop other retaliatory capacities? Fairly likely. Indeed, one of the key arguments against an Israeli strike is that it actually increases the long-term probability of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.
They mostly come at night. Mostly.
- university webpage: McGill University
- conflict simulations webpage: PaxSims
Whoops
Bad news: the mission fails and hits a girls school. Two Israeli pilots are captured and appear on TV. One Israeli plane crashes in Afghanistan and a tanker crashes in Saudi Arabia. Unlikely? Yes, could one scenario happen? Yes.
davidbfpo
Iran calls for a condemnation by the UNSC and exposes the U.S. veto as partisanship.
Domestic opposition would likely be much reduced for about two years (not long enough for next election).
Russia would probably be irritated because it's now in the boat for some political pressure for the same goal.
Russian air defence system exports would rise, probably French ones as well.
The CIA will expect additional backlash for the next 20 years, and it may depend on publicized opinions at whom this backlash will be directed.
3 luxury cruise ships are attacked with guided sea skimming missiles off the coast of Israel. 2 sink 1 is badly damaged. Causalities are huge, long term effect on Israeli tourism is huge.
Would the Iraqis grant overflight privileges for Israeli aircraft?
Now of our two allies, obviously we will choose Israelis over Iraqis, but I wonder at the political consequences in Iraq if (when) we reject an Iraqi request to enforce control of Iraqi airspace to escort Israeli aircraft out of it.
King of Saudi Arabia celebrates the news and congratulates himself on his ability to keep his greatest enemy in check through a very sophisticated application of the Indirect Approach; leveraging America's addiction to his oil and their equally mind befuddling degree of support for Israel to continue to manipulate such overt action against Iran without having to get his hands dirty.
Most Americans and Israelis remain oblivious to the subtle manipulations of the Saudis to keep the heat burning between the US and Iran; Similarly the Iranian populace also focuses their anger on the US and Israel as well.
Big winners:
The current government of Iran, as they regain lost ground with their populace; and support of Muslim populaces in general
The Government of Saudi Arabia, as their perception as the "good Arabs" is enhnaced in the West, and their greatest local threat is atritted.
Bin Laden, as his rhetoric receives validation, helping him to gain inroads with frustrated Shia Muslims as well as his primary Sunni audiance.
Normalization between Iran and US is delayed another 10 years; Hezbollah attacks against Israel increase; and Iran ramps up efforts to attain a nuclear capability to prevent this from happening again.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-25-2009 at 02:51 PM. Reason: Iraelies to Israelis
Robert C. Jones
Intellectus Supra Scientia
(Understanding is more important than Knowledge)
"The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)
Oil price barrel would be at least 200$...
due to the heavily mined and attacked transport route. Since half China recieves its gas and oil from Iran China would be very upset so to say. If the USA was involved, attacks would multiply on US and NATO forces in A'stan and in Iraq.
Iran joins SCO making it a new anti-USA and anti-western bloc. And a new cold war is already upon us in month or so.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-25-2009 at 07:30 PM. Reason: Spelling and one odd word cca removed
Nihil sub sole novum.
As the aircraft are returning to Israel
a giant green octopus swoops from a cloud and gathers them all in its tentacles before heading south...
Not sure if Ken has been jamming to Metallica's The Call of Ktulu ( Cthulhu ) again but as long as we are channeling otherworldy visions how about considering Stephen Walt channeling Hu Jintao:Originally Posted by Ken White
I do have one lingering concern, however. America's leaders may come to their senses, and go back to the unsentimental realism that guided their rise to greatness in the 19th and early 20th centuries. They might discover what Sun Tzu taught -- "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare" -- and stop insisting on bearing all the world's burdens themselves. But then I remember what their foreign policy "debate" is like, and I recall that both Democrats and Republicans seem equally eager to interfere all over the world, and suddenly that danger doesn't seem very great. In fact, the future looks bright."
Last edited by Surferbeetle; 09-25-2009 at 06:57 PM.
Sapere Aude
UN Security Council convenes in several emergency sessions as oil prices continue to rise. Pressure mounts to clear the Strait of Hormuz and resume cargo shipments.
(Russia benefits as market share of oil continues to grow and prices rise)
The USS Nimitz CSG with CVW 11 is notified to prepare for operation “right of passage” along with the USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) and the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) conducting a port visit to Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates.
No one's thrown 50 cents on this square yet?
Sadr (through intermediary) calls for mass demonstrations against the occupier.
Maliki denies aircraft used Iraqi airspace. Oppo groups (don't recall if the new coalition has a name) condemn Maliki. Sadr condemns Maliki. Sadr demos turn out to be smaller than anticipated, but this is downplayed in reports. Somewhere in Iraq a suicide bomber strikes.
Multiple wonks remind all who'll listen they were right - the surge failed. Strategically, that is. They mention we're doing the same thing in Afghanistan.
Seymour Hersh publishes story supporting Schmedlap's point. (This might not be immediate.) Intense coverage thereof neglects his overall track record.
But for fair and balanced
On Fox news Ralph Peters condemns President Obama's slow response within an hour of the first report.
The EU falls all over itself to condemn Israel. Russia will be more than happy to take a shot at the US. In the US politicians on the far left will voice outrage at Israel's unbridled aggression, those on the right will voice unconditional support. Everyone else will remain strongly non-committal, at least until the polls show way the public is leaning.
SFC W
Some questions:
1. A number of members predict Iran increases support for insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq. Do we have any estimate of the capacity Iran can bring to bear vis a vis the 2006-7 experience or how quickly she can turn up the dial?
2. Others pointed out the transnational threat posed by terrorist surrogates of iran outside the OEF and OIF theaters. Two part question. Did we see the limits of Hezbollah's reach and strength in the 2006 Lebanon War? What other actors can Iran rely and what capabilities do they bring?
3. How long and how badly can Iran jam up the the Straits of Hormuz?
4. Depending on the answers to the question above, and the likelihood Tehran redoubles its efforts to enrich uranium after an Israeli attack, will the United States have any choice but to sustain combat operations to destroy or degrade Iran's nuclear industry?
5. Can the US avert any of the above escalations following an Israeli attack?
PH Cannady
Correlate Systems
President Obama holds a press briefing stating it is imperative that Iran remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz and calls on Ahmadinejad to restore "unfettered" shipping in the Strait immediately. The Dawlat al-Imārāt al-‘Arabīyah al-Muttaḥidah (in a joint statement) state that the situation is dire. NATO convenes an emergency session.
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