mines may effectively jam up the Straits and their potential should be reconsidered, not many mines need to be laid for insurance companies to see risk...
review....
http://hormuz.robertstrausscenter.org/mines
Israel
The Palestinians
Two States
Neither, some other State or people rule.
Neither, mutual destruction.
One State, two peoples
One State, one people (intermarriage)
Here is a posting that answers that question: http://irangcc.wordpress.com/2009/09...t-down-hormuz/Originally Posted by Presley Cannady
Also, I would add another prediction to my earlier post: think tanks begin banging the drum for a counterinsurgency operation in Iran.
How long and how badly can Iran jam up the the Straits of Hormuz?
mines may effectively jam up the Straits and their potential should be reconsidered, not many mines need to be laid for insurance companies to see risk...
review....
http://hormuz.robertstrausscenter.org/mines
What other actors can Iran rely and what capabilities do they bring?
Suicide bombers disrupt Zakum oil field and explosions occur along pipelines throughout the UAE.
6 to 7 million barrels a day are now offline.
Within days the Dolphin Project (gas) is severely damaged by a large explosion. It is not immediately clear who carried out the attacks.
The Plan has already been done...just needs to be updated IMO.
http://www.truthout.org/article/secr...an-iran-strike
Trying to get my head round that one, and failing... who would the insurgents be? Given that we don't like the Iranian government, why would we want to counter their insurgents, if they had any?
I guess for think tanks anything is possible...
My personal feeling is that the scenario is pretty hypothetical; the Israelis are more likely to rattle that saber than to actually swing it.
Why? Why assume that Iranian nuclear weapons are relevant to Iranian strategic thinking, as opposed to posturing. Take a long cold drink and think about it.
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"
- The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
- If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition
Perhaps they would do this...if they could.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2DP-...eature=related
Love the comments...
Because think tanks view COIN as the panacea for all national security ills.
All the while...
Moammar Gadhafi, the King of Kings of Africa, will ramble on about how that octupus is part of secret joint US-Israel plan to control the world.
What was amazing for me was the fact I've been to H-1 thru H-3 airfields during my previous deployments there, and although the coalition bombed them fourth and fifth times over, they are interesting places nonetheless.
IIRC a CSIS report (090808_gulfstrategyanalysis maybe?) or a MEMRI one calculated it at maximum one month rising from two weeks in the 1980s. It could last even longer given the significantly decreased anti-mine capability of the world's navies and the fact IRCG boasts a high number of small craft which could a. attack minesweepers b. even lay themselves mines
Quite unlikely.
OTOH the above scenario could surface the first offensive use of 4GW (coordinated and unorthodox indirect means to achieve political goals - in my understanding).
Nihil sub sole novum.
I don't assume Iran intends to build a bomb, just that Israelis (and presumably the US) continue to estimate their intentions as such. Mainly, there's been a great deal of discussion of Iran's likely response to an Israeli attack. There's not much discussion of what happens after the counterstroke, though.
PH Cannady
Correlate Systems
I think that those details are kept vague deliberately, to increase the uncertainty in the minds of the Mullahs when they do their calculus in...
- the cost/benefit analysis of threatening a strike
- the cost/benefit analysis of building a bomb
- the cost/benefit analysis of actually conducting a strike, to include weighing whether to do so with wmd, through a proxy, or some other variant
Part of the reason that Ahmedinejad acts crazy and makes threats, imo, is to get a better read of how we (and others) will react in each step of that process, not necessarily to prepare for a strike, but so that they can learn how to put forth a more convincing facade that they are capable of striking, without actually prompting us (or Israel) to strike first.
Why? Why assume that Iranian nuclear weapons are relevant to Iranian strategic thinki
William F. Owen asks a reasonable and important question.
simple answer: existential belief and strategic thinking are one in Iran. they actually believe.
recent Ahmadinejad interview: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32913296...playmode/1098/
http://www.al-islam.org/masoom/bios/12thimam.html
nuclear weapons help this come about.
Iran starts to move more small boats to Strait of Hormuz (increasing #s to 500) adding to the 200 or so that were there. Iran then starts to redeploy Shahab-3, Zelzal 1 and Zelzal 2, M-11 Variant/Tondar-68, Nazeat, M-6 and the HQ-2 air-/missile-defense system around several key cities. Numerous Gargoyle's not used in the initial air strike by the Israelis start to be deployed including the variant of the Chinese HongQi 15. The Iranians continue to mine the Straits and wait....
Iran has it's fighters, anti-shipping missiles and civilian flights all coming from the same airport. After the embarassing downing of an Irainian 747, I have to believe that there would be a delay in our response if Iran launched an attack on US Navy ships in the gulf.
Reed
Iran's nuclear program is back up and running within 4 years.
History teaches us...?
Reed11b,
The USS Vincennes in July 1988 shot down an Iran Air A300 which was flying south from Bandar Abbas to Dubai. An incident that was controverisal then and for sometime; view for details: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
Twenty-one years later I hope that both sides think hard before taking any action in the Persian Gulf -lessons learnt?
Plus I doubt if all Iranian military "eggs are in one basket" now.
davidbfpo
Me the Heretic!
Personally, I and a few others consider Iranian nuclear capability to be strategically less important than popularly imagined.
a.) How can they use nukes against Israel as a strategic option? Why is killing 75% of the population of Israel, going to further any policy especially when it might results in the death of 50% of the Iranian and loss of 90% of it's GDP for 5 years.
- The argument that Iran has an irrational leadership would always have to suppose that they cannot be rationally deterred. Thus, NO US/Israeli action can provide the strategic result necessary.
b.) It could well be suggested that threat of Iranian WMD has done nothing but benefit Israel in terms of maintaining a number of "flag ship" programmes which would otherwise have been under threat.
c.) The other issue being avoided is how Iranian interference in Israeli security, de-facto dams any prospect of a Palestinian State, since it is Iran's aim to control any Palestinian Government, in order to base forces within the Palestinian state.
d.) Iranian WMD is primarily a strategic issue for the US, in terms of it's ability to project power in the region - and that has security implications for Israel, as does any interference in Middle East strategic dynamics.
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"
- The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
- If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition
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