Bin Laden: before Abbottabad (merged thread)

[RTK]

Naively assuming OBL is still kickin’ (we haven’t seen him for 3 years) and using Slapout’s criminal behavior schematic, this simply doesn’t jive.

Would he risk all, nearly three years later to make a video with yet another recently dyed beard ?

Perhaps he needs to motivate his support elements, as the war is not going well for them. His appearance will no doubt grant the POTUS unequivocal congressional support well into next year.

The American public will be outraged and the stakes and bounty on his head will only grow.

I may need a witch doctor or at least an anthropologist to explain this one

He may have dyed his beard, but did anyone notice he hasn't changed his clothes in 3 years?

[goesh]

That purported picture/video of Binny could darn well be anyone. When I now just saw it the first thing that popped into my mind is an old bum of a neighbor that lives down the road a piece from me. Wrap a turbin on Old Bill, that's what everyone calls him this neighbor down the road and you have Bin Laden. Folks in these parts have said that for several years now but old Bill is a real loner and has a bad reputation and is always packing a shotgun and nobody has felt like telling him that to his face. This isn't very sophisiticated IMO. They've doctored someone up to look like Binny and are trying to pass it off as the real deal.

[pcmfr]

I'm pretty sure the video is authentic. But given that smart people still believe it's not, leads me to question why our own IO guys, or some smart kid with editing software haven't produced videos of UBL eating a pulled pork sandwich in the company of hooter's waitresses, while announcing that he's throwing in the towel on this whole global jihad thing and converting into a Methodist. Joking aside, I am now beginning to believe that the continued sanctuary of AQ senior leadership and their media branch in FATA is much more a problem than we initially belived.

[bourbon]

The transcript of UBL's video is available for download, via MSNBC, in PDF here:

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/se...transcript.pdf

[slapout9]

Posted by Sarajevo:
Bin Laden, alive or dead, not matter that much anymore. Symbolically, yes, but strategically... He did his thing for AQ and Salafi Jihadi. They, Salafi Jihadi/Wahabi do not have celebrities or icons. Most of them would love to see OBL martyred. I am not so concerned if he is alive or not but rather what this message can mean.

I think this is a pretty good analysis. We need to be figuring out what the message is? Is he sending signals to strike while General Patraeous(cain't spell,sorry General) is giving his briefing? Is it something else? Is it just propaganda? The answers to those questions are what is important for us to figure out.

PS my gut tells me he is alive!

[Sarajevo071]

Did you read that MSNBC transcript?! If you didn't you should. Seams message is completely toward U.S. and Americans.

[slapout9]

Did you read that MSNBC transcript?! If you didn't you should. Seams message is completely toward U.S. and Americans.

Yes, I read it. One media report I saw said the meassge was a lot of incoherent thoughts. I didn't take it that way. It was a very well laid out piece of propaganda and I agree it was all pointed toward the US.

Sarajevo what is your view on the speech?

[Tacitus]

Frankly, I don't know where this willingness to assert that Bin Laden is dead and his latest manifesto is a fake comes from.

If I was king (perish the thought), I'd assume he was alive and up to something until he was in custody/killed/captured.

And like your average man on the street, I cringe when I hear talk about how capturing him doesn't matter. It sounds too much like a rationalization for not "bringing him to justice, or justice to him".

[Sarajevo071]

Bush Jr. said he is not concern with him anymore. Remember?

[Ken White]

Frankly, I don't know where this willingness to assert that Bin Laden is dead and his latest manifesto is a fake comes from.

that comes from the fact that he does seem to be wearing the samw clothes for weeks on end. Not to mention that it is to thier advantage for him to be "alive.' ours, too to a lesser extent. Big Martyrs attract more little martyrs.

If I was king (perish the thought), I'd assume he was alive and up to something until he was in custody/killed/captured.

You'd probably be right but you'd also know tha if he goes, Zawahiri who's the real driving force would take charge. If Zawahiri is killed, then someone else will and so on, ad infinitum. Thus better to preserve the fiction and leave him alone.

And like your average man on the street, I cringe when I hear talk about how capturing him doesn't matter. It sounds too much like a rationalization for not "bringing him to justice, or justice to him".

Hunh. Interesting. I used to hang out around Bristol -- well, Kingsport, actually -- many years ago and the folks up there must've changed in the last forty years. Most of them then would have more concerned with vengnance than justice.

Be that as it may, where would you "bring him to justice" and on what charge? A few guys come to him with an idea, he helps them get money to do what they wanted to do. He said a lot of stuff on videos and tape which may or may not be admissable but which in any event are just words. you might get a Conspiracy charge, little more, I suspect.