Bin Laden: before Abbottabad (merged thread)

**goesh** · 09-07-2007

I believe Binny is dead and twice burned on the Pakisani frontier, i.e. cremated and the remains burned again, by his body guards to forever prevent Western forensics from being able to prove his early demise. He clearly had sepsis from the last known video. However if AQ can cobble togther and cut and paste and copy and put one on the air, it will bolster US resolve to stay the course in Iraq. After all, even the Democrats acknowledge the vicious terrorism being enacted on Iraqi civilians by AQ and common sense mandates that they be killed where found. I do think it will take another 5-7 years before Iraqi forces can take full control of security for their nation, of course that is just a civilian's opinion. It could take 6-8 years.

**Sarajevo071** · 09-07-2007

Except of the "small" fact that AQ WAS in Afghanistan (only in ONE part while other part belonged to Northern Alliance) and that AQ was NEVER in Iraq (like Bush & Co. lied)... AQ and terrorism, and now we can see HUGE Iranian influence, came in Iraq "thanks" to US.

I believe Democrats did acknowledge the vicious anti-human campaign against Iraq and civilians even decade before this latest war in Iraq, and human cost of sanctions. One should not forget that and ignore effects and feelings of people who lived thru that and lost loves one during that decade.

Bin Laden, alive or dead, not matter that much anymore. Symbolically, yes, but strategically... He did his thing for AQ and Salafi Jihadi. They, Salafi Jihadi/Wahabi do not have celebrities or icons. Most of them would love to see OBL martyred. I am not so concerned if he is alive or not but rather what this message can mean.

**Stan** · 09-07-2007

Naively assuming OBL is still kickin’ (we haven’t seen him for 3 years) and using Slapout’s criminal behavior schematic, this simply doesn’t jive.

Would he risk all, nearly three years later to make a video with yet another recently dyed beard ?

Perhaps he needs to motivate his support elements, as the war is not going well for them. His appearance will no doubt grant the POTUS unequivocal congressional support well into next year.

The American public will be outraged and the stakes and bounty on his head will only grow.

I may need a witch doctor or at least an anthropologist to explain this one

**RTK** · 09-07-2007

Originally Posted by Stan

Naively assuming OBL is still kickin’ (we haven’t seen him for 3 years) and using Slapout’s criminal behavior schematic, this simply doesn’t jive.

Would he risk all, nearly three years later to make a video with yet another recently dyed beard ?

Perhaps he needs to motivate his support elements, as the war is not going well for them. His appearance will no doubt grant the POTUS unequivocal congressional support well into next year.

The American public will be outraged and the stakes and bounty on his head will only grow.

I may need a witch doctor or at least an anthropologist to explain this one

He may have dyed his beard, but did anyone notice he hasn't changed his clothes in 3 years?

**goesh** · 09-07-2007

That purported picture/video of Binny could darn well be anyone. When I now just saw it the first thing that popped into my mind is an old bum of a neighbor that lives down the road a piece from me. Wrap a turbin on Old Bill, that's what everyone calls him this neighbor down the road and you have Bin Laden. Folks in these parts have said that for several years now but old Bill is a real loner and has a bad reputation and is always packing a shotgun and nobody has felt like telling him that to his face. This isn't very sophisiticated IMO. They've doctored someone up to look like Binny and are trying to pass it off as the real deal.

**pcmfr** · 09-07-2007

I'm pretty sure the video is authentic. But given that smart people still believe it's not, leads me to question why our own IO guys, or some smart kid with editing software haven't produced videos of UBL eating a pulled pork sandwich in the company of hooter's waitresses, while announcing that he's throwing in the towel on this whole global jihad thing and converting into a Methodist. Joking aside, I am now beginning to believe that the continued sanctuary of AQ senior leadership and their media branch in FATA is much more a problem than we initially belived.