Bin Laden: before Abbottabad (merged thread)

[SWJED]

Moderator at work

I have merged six thread here, to create a Bin Laden thread or collection that covers him before the Abbottabad raid and his demise. In a moment a post-Abbottabad thread will be created. The thread was renamed too (ends).


20 Nov. London Daily Telegraph - Messages of Bin Laden Published.

Messages to the World: The Statements of Osama bin Laden is billed as the first accurate compendium of the terrorist leader's words, threats and ruminations from 1994 to 2004.

Its editors have rooted out many statements they identified as forgeries and retranslated to correct "horrendous" errors.

Bin Laden's terms for America's surrender appeared after the September 2001 suicide attacks and include demands that amount to the abandonment of much of Western life.

[Sarajevo071]

Groups: Bin Laden plans video on 9/11
by Lee Keath, Associated Press

Osama bin Laden will release a new video in the coming days ahead of the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks in what would be the first new images of the terror mastermind in nearly three years, al-Qaida's media arm announced Thursday.

Analysts noted that al-Qaida tends to mark the Sept. 11 anniversary with a slew of messages, and the Department of Homeland Security said it had no credible information warning of an imminent threat to the United States.

Still, bin Laden's appearance would be significant. The al-Qaida leader has not appeared in new video footage since October 2004, and he has not put out a new audiotape in more than a year, his longest period without a message.
...


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070906/...in_laden_video

[goesh]

I believe Binny is dead and twice burned on the Pakisani frontier, i.e. cremated and the remains burned again, by his body guards to forever prevent Western forensics from being able to prove his early demise. He clearly had sepsis from the last known video. However if AQ can cobble togther and cut and paste and copy and put one on the air, it will bolster US resolve to stay the course in Iraq. After all, even the Democrats acknowledge the vicious terrorism being enacted on Iraqi civilians by AQ and common sense mandates that they be killed where found. I do think it will take another 5-7 years before Iraqi forces can take full control of security for their nation, of course that is just a civilian's opinion. It could take 6-8 years.

[Sarajevo071]

Except of the "small" fact that AQ WAS in Afghanistan (only in ONE part while other part belonged to Northern Alliance) and that AQ was NEVER in Iraq (like Bush & Co. lied)... AQ and terrorism, and now we can see HUGE Iranian influence, came in Iraq "thanks" to US.

I believe Democrats did acknowledge the vicious anti-human campaign against Iraq and civilians even decade before this latest war in Iraq, and human cost of sanctions. One should not forget that and ignore effects and feelings of people who lived thru that and lost loves one during that decade.

Bin Laden, alive or dead, not matter that much anymore. Symbolically, yes, but strategically... He did his thing for AQ and Salafi Jihadi. They, Salafi Jihadi/Wahabi do not have celebrities or icons. Most of them would love to see OBL martyred. I am not so concerned if he is alive or not but rather what this message can mean.

[Stan]

Naively assuming OBL is still kickin’ (we haven’t seen him for 3 years) and using Slapout’s criminal behavior schematic, this simply doesn’t jive.

Would he risk all, nearly three years later to make a video with yet another recently dyed beard ?

Perhaps he needs to motivate his support elements, as the war is not going well for them. His appearance will no doubt grant the POTUS unequivocal congressional support well into next year.

The American public will be outraged and the stakes and bounty on his head will only grow.

I may need a witch doctor or at least an anthropologist to explain this one

[RTK]

Naively assuming OBL is still kickin’ (we haven’t seen him for 3 years) and using Slapout’s criminal behavior schematic, this simply doesn’t jive.

Would he risk all, nearly three years later to make a video with yet another recently dyed beard ?

Perhaps he needs to motivate his support elements, as the war is not going well for them. His appearance will no doubt grant the POTUS unequivocal congressional support well into next year.

The American public will be outraged and the stakes and bounty on his head will only grow.

I may need a witch doctor or at least an anthropologist to explain this one

He may have dyed his beard, but did anyone notice he hasn't changed his clothes in 3 years?

[AmericanPride]

I doubt, if true, that his death will fundamentally progress the War on Terrorism. But it would be a small victory. I couldn't find further information anywhere else.

http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsdetails/4672

[bourbon]

I googled the Pillar quote and found the Time article it refers to.

[Culpeper]

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4502669n

The officer who led the army's Delta Force mission to kill Osama bin Laden after 9/11 reveals what really happened in Tora Bora, Afghanistan, when the al-Qaeda leader narrowly escaped. Scott Pelley reports.

Is this guy for real?

[selil]

The 60 minutes spot was strange.

[jmm99]

Here is the 4-page article (+ 27 pages of comments) underlying the spot.

Elite Officer Recalls Bin Laden Hunt
Delta Force Commander Says The Best Plan To Kill The Al Qaeda Leader In 2001 Was Nixed
Oct. 5, 2008
....
In 2001, just 10 weeks after 9/11, he was a 37-year-old Army major leading a team of America's most elite commandos. Even now, 60 Minutes can't tell you his name or show you his face. 60 Minutes hired a theatrical make up artist to take this former Delta officer through a series of transformations to disguise him. He calls himself "Dalton Fury," and is the author of "Kill Bin Laden," a new book out this week.
.....
Fury says he'll donate his profits from the book to the Special Operations Warrior Foundation.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/...n4494937.shtml

I have no way to determine whether this article is factual in whole, part or not at all. Others here may be better informed.

Ishmael Jones, The Human Factor, pp.238-239, blames the escape on CIA "HQs managers" taking over the operation after UBL's radio transmission was received.

[Entropy]

DefenseTech did two minutes of research and apparently found out who the guy is.

[Jedburgh]

Despite the comic book pseudonym he adopted, the guy is the real deal.

[Rank amateur]

Now that his bona fides have bee established, would anyone like to comment on what he said?

[Uboat509]

This is where the issue was discussed on PS.com. Most people in the community are pretty pissed about this. I don't have TV right now so I did not see the interview and I doubt that I will read the book. What I am wondering though is what the point is. I near as I can gather, he is pointing out what is basically a bad call that was made on the ground in Afghanistan during the Tora Bora operation. My question is why? Whether it was a good, bad or indifferent call, it is an old call. What is bringing it up now going to do other than bring about a big old round of finger pointing, and possibly some scape goating?

SFC W

[bismark17]

His book has been in limbo for awhile while some OPSEC issues were clarified. The author's homepage goes into more detail.

From the little I know it appears that a "risk averse" culture kicked in by the Higher Ups. I don't understand why a Ranger Blt wasn't deployed as another support element. Hats off to those guys who went in knowing their "support" was dubious at best.

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/US_off...kill_1006.html

I didn't see the original airing but have been following this on the author's homepage. Hopefully this is the original 60minutes piece without modification.

[jmm99]

Here is the only "statement of facts" that I have:

(posted at PS by Team Sergeant - from 2 Feb 2008 Army Times at 2nd url below)

Fury said that, as required by the agreement he signed when he left the unit and retired, he sent Delta a copy of his manuscript for security review.

“They came up with a list of redactions of items they thought ought to be taken out,” he said. “I told them I would honor every one of those. However, they were never ever given to me.”

Delta’s higher headquarters apparently intervened, according to Fury. “It’s not Delta’s fault,” he said. “It’s their higher command – JSOC and SOCOM have the say. And they … collectively decided not to provide me with any detailed redactions after a year of trying through my attorney.”

“All I got back was responses [reminding me of] my commitment to the classified information agreement that I signed … [and] basically threatening to possibly take me to court over this.”

Fury said that after SOCOM “stifled it,” he sent the manuscript to the Defense Department’s Office of Security Review.

“OSR failed to respond in any timely manner at all, after numerous requests from my attorney.

“The comment that SOCOM made was that the sensitive information was so thoroughly woven into the manuscript that any attempt at detailed redaction would be literally impossible. They chose not to do it.”

“We did receive a manuscript from [the author] for security review,” said SOCOM spokesman Army Col. Hans Bush. “The manuscript did not pass security review because it was found to contain classified information. We notified [the author] through his lawyer last fall. To date this remains unresolved. “We are still willing to work with the author in the even he resubmits a manuscript that does not contain classified information.”

http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/...ghlight=dalton
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/0..._book_080131w/

The Ishmael Jones book, and the CIA PRB's refusal to clear it, has been discussed here.

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=5832

The agency's PRB review process is well regulated and subject to judicial review - sometimes in favor of authors, sometimes not (as in Frank Snepp's case).

The Fury process has multiple commands involved; and, I have no idea (no legal research done or intended) of whether judicial review is available or not. Since the Army has regulations for most everything, I presume there is some legal guidance somewhere - but I arz a dummy in this legal area.

The Jones and Fury books were both rejected for the same reason stated - " sensitive information was so thoroughly woven into the manuscript that any attempt at detailed redaction would be literally impossible." Both books were then published despite the rejection.

So far, no legal action has been taken in either case. Note: I am not calling for legal action in either case - just sitting on the sidelines watching.

[davidbfpo]

The BBC is due to broadcast a TV programme tomorrow, part of the excellent series 'The Conspiracy Files' entitled 'Is Osama Bin Laden dead or alive?'. Link to a pre-broadcast article:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/8444069.stm

The series website and the programme will be available tomorrow evening: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...es/default.stm

Opening lines:

Osama Bin Laden died eight years ago during the battle for Tora Bora in Afghanistan, either from a US bomb or from a serious kidney disease. Or so the conspiracy theory goes. The theory that has developed on the web since 9/11 is that US intelligence services are manufacturing the Bin Laden statements to create an evil bogeyman, to justify the so-called war on terror in Afghanistan, Iraq and back at home. So is the world's most wanted man still alive?

Ending lines:

former CIA agent, Art Keller, is more damning:
"I think those conspiracy theories that he is dead are pretty much laughable," he says. It's easier to explain things away with a conspiracy than to face up to the difficult reality. In this case, the difficult reality is that we're trying to operate in possibly the worst area in the world and track someone who's very crafty and elusive and putting considerable effort to stay off our radar."

I know Bin laden's name appears in many threads, notably the recent 'Kill Bin Laden' thread, but so many issues are involved here: politics, info warfare etc it deserves its own thread.

[SWJ Blog]

How Bin Laden Escaped in 2001: The Lessons of Tora Bora

Entry Excerpt:



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