Bin Laden: before Abbottabad (merged thread)

[pcmfr]

I'm pretty sure the video is authentic. But given that smart people still believe it's not, leads me to question why our own IO guys, or some smart kid with editing software haven't produced videos of UBL eating a pulled pork sandwich in the company of hooter's waitresses, while announcing that he's throwing in the towel on this whole global jihad thing and converting into a Methodist. Joking aside, I am now beginning to believe that the continued sanctuary of AQ senior leadership and their media branch in FATA is much more a problem than we initially belived.

[bourbon]

The transcript of UBL's video is available for download, via MSNBC, in PDF here:

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/se...transcript.pdf

[slapout9]

Posted by Sarajevo:
Bin Laden, alive or dead, not matter that much anymore. Symbolically, yes, but strategically... He did his thing for AQ and Salafi Jihadi. They, Salafi Jihadi/Wahabi do not have celebrities or icons. Most of them would love to see OBL martyred. I am not so concerned if he is alive or not but rather what this message can mean.

I think this is a pretty good analysis. We need to be figuring out what the message is? Is he sending signals to strike while General Patraeous(cain't spell,sorry General) is giving his briefing? Is it something else? Is it just propaganda? The answers to those questions are what is important for us to figure out.

PS my gut tells me he is alive!

[Sarajevo071]

Did you read that MSNBC transcript?! If you didn't you should. Seams message is completely toward U.S. and Americans.

[slapout9]

Did you read that MSNBC transcript?! If you didn't you should. Seams message is completely toward U.S. and Americans.

Yes, I read it. One media report I saw said the meassge was a lot of incoherent thoughts. I didn't take it that way. It was a very well laid out piece of propaganda and I agree it was all pointed toward the US.

Sarajevo what is your view on the speech?

[Sarajevo071]

Yes, I read it. One media report I saw said the meassge was a lot of incoherent thoughts. I didn't take it that way. It was a very well laid out piece of propaganda and I agree it was all pointed toward the US.

Sarajevo what is your view on the speech?

I think it is a great PR speech (how do you guys call that, IO?) and fact that he is calling Americans to the Islam (second time) can be significant. Or doesn't' need to be.

[Sarajevo071]

Yes, I read it. One media report I saw said the meassge was a lot of incoherent thoughts. I didn't take it that way. It was a very well laid out piece of propaganda and I agree it was all pointed toward the US.

Well, in mean time, Sheikh Abu Umar al-Hussaini al-Qurashi al-Baghdadi (Leader of the Islamic State of Iraq for those who are confused with his full name) came out with his own audio message!? Title: "And If you Cease (to attack), It will be better for you".

[bourbon]

How widely held is UBL-global warming information operation of 2004 theory?
Stealing from the famous George Packer article to summarize it:

Just before the 2004 American elections, Kilcullen was doing intelligence work for the Australian government, sifting through Osama bin Laden's public statements, including transcripts of a video that offered a list of grievances against America: Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, global warming. The last item brought Kilcullen up short. "I thought, Hang on! What kind of jihadist are you?" he recalled. The odd inclusion of environmentalist rhetoric, he said, made clear that "this wasn't a list of genuine grievances. This was an Al Qaeda information strategy." Ron Suskind, in his book "The One Percent Doctrine," claims that analysts at the C.I.A. watched a similar video, released in 2004, and concluded that "bin Laden's message was clearly designed to assist the President's reelection." Bin Laden shrewdly created an implicit association between Al Qaeda and the Democratic Party, for he had come to feel that Bush's strategy in the war on terror was sustaining his own global importance.
(Packer, 12/18/06)

If so, in his latest screed he hits on global warming again. He also points out the flaccid opposition re: Iraq by the Democrats. And possibly endorses (theoretically tainting from the US political discourse) contrarian, non-interventionist thinking:

And among the most capable of those from your own side who speak to you on this topic and on the manufacturing of public opinion is Noam Chomsky, who spoke sober words of advice prior to the war…

And if you would like to get to know some of the reasons for your losing of your war against us, then read the book of Michael Scheuer in this regard.

What gives? Am I reading this right or reading too much into it? Off-track or on target?


------------------
Packer, George, "Knowing The Enemy: Can social scientists redefine the "war on terror"?". The New Yorker, Vol. 82 No. 42. (December 18, 2006)

[Tacitus]

Frankly, I don't know where this willingness to assert that Bin Laden is dead and his latest manifesto is a fake comes from.

If I was king (perish the thought), I'd assume he was alive and up to something until he was in custody/killed/captured.

And like your average man on the street, I cringe when I hear talk about how capturing him doesn't matter. It sounds too much like a rationalization for not "bringing him to justice, or justice to him".

[Sarajevo071]

Bush Jr. said he is not concern with him anymore. Remember?

[Uboat509]

No. What he said was that Bin Laden is not our only threat nor is killing or capturing him going to end the war or cause our enemies to quit. There are quite a few people in the government who believe that we should just be focused on finding Bin Laden. We cannot afford to focus on Bin Laden and ignore everything else.

SFC W

[Tacitus]

Oh, I understand the point that it is more than Bin Laden, the man, that is the problem. I can grasp this logic. It is the ideology he articulates that is the problem. Specifically, it is the Wahhabism branch of Sunni Islam that is arguably the ultimate source. This Wahhabism which is spreading to Muslim lands draws financial support, ideology and even recruits from its entrenched heartland in ....Mesopotamia, of course. Well, actually no, it comes out of Saudi Arabia.

Call me crazy or a dreamer, but the man is responsible for the deaths of around 3,000 American citizens and billions of dollars of damage. To me, at least, he matters a little bit more than the deputy commander of Al Qaeda in Ramadi or Baquba.

FDR requested Sec. of the Navy Knox "to get Yamamoto." The U.S. navy seemed to take the attack on Pearl Harbor personal, and killed the author of it. Anyone interested in how we dealt with this man can read all about it here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admiral_Yamamoto#Death

[Sarajevo071]

No. What he said was that Bin Laden is not our only threat nor is killing or capturing him going to end the war or cause our enemies to quit. There are quite a few people in the government who believe that we should just be focused on finding Bin Laden. We cannot afford to focus on Bin Laden and ignore everything else.

SFC W

Hm. I was referring on this:

Q But don't you believe that the threat that bin Laden posed won't truly be eliminated until he is found either dead or alive?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, as I say, we haven't heard much from him. And I wouldn't necessarily say he's at the center of any command structure. And, again, I don't know where he is. I -- I'll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him. I know he is on the run. I was concerned about him, when he had taken over a country. I was concerned about the fact that he was basically running Afghanistan and calling the shots for the Taliban.

But once we set out the policy and started executing the plan, he became -- we shoved him out more and more on the margins. He has no place to train his al Qaeda killers anymore. And if we -- excuse me for a minute -- and if we find a training camp, we'll take care of it. Either we will or our friends will. That's one of the things -- part of the new phase that's becoming apparent to the American people is that we're working closely with other governments to deny sanctuary, or training, or a place to hide, or a place to raise money.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/relea...0020313-8.html

[Sarajevo071]

No. What he said was that Bin Laden is not our only threat nor is killing or capturing him going to end the war or cause our enemies to quit. There are quite a few people in the government who believe that we should just be focused on finding Bin Laden. We cannot afford to focus on Bin Laden and ignore everything else.

SFC W

Bush - Truly not concerned about bin Laden
Added: August 11, 2006
From: BI30

Remember, this is just SIX MONTHS after 9/11. In response to a reporters question, President Bush tells the world that he is "truly not that concerned" with catching the man who murdered 3,000 Americans just six months and two days earlier because "we've marginalized him."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PGmnz5Ow-o

[Ken White]

Frankly, I don't know where this willingness to assert that Bin Laden is dead and his latest manifesto is a fake comes from.

that comes from the fact that he does seem to be wearing the samw clothes for weeks on end. Not to mention that it is to thier advantage for him to be "alive.' ours, too to a lesser extent. Big Martyrs attract more little martyrs.

If I was king (perish the thought), I'd assume he was alive and up to something until he was in custody/killed/captured.

You'd probably be right but you'd also know tha if he goes, Zawahiri who's the real driving force would take charge. If Zawahiri is killed, then someone else will and so on, ad infinitum. Thus better to preserve the fiction and leave him alone.

And like your average man on the street, I cringe when I hear talk about how capturing him doesn't matter. It sounds too much like a rationalization for not "bringing him to justice, or justice to him".

Hunh. Interesting. I used to hang out around Bristol -- well, Kingsport, actually -- many years ago and the folks up there must've changed in the last forty years. Most of them then would have more concerned with vengnance than justice.

Be that as it may, where would you "bring him to justice" and on what charge? A few guys come to him with an idea, he helps them get money to do what they wanted to do. He said a lot of stuff on videos and tape which may or may not be admissable but which in any event are just words. you might get a Conspiracy charge, little more, I suspect.

[Rex Brynen]

..and there, I thought OBL was attending the APEC summit....

[Tacitus]

I don't know his taylor or valet. I don't know why he favors a particular suit (or whatever they call this kind of garb). A trademark? A uniform? Maybe he just thinks he looks good in it. Why was Abe Lincoln always walking around in a black coat and top hat? What's up with that?

But I'll take it all back if y'all are offended. Assuming he's alive... YAWN. Big deal. He's just a cog in a wheel.

Actuallly, I don't want to bring him to justice. It was the President who said it was either bring him to justice, or justice to him.

It was in "Breaker Morant", a good flick for anybody out there who hasn't seen it, where Morant said "I believe it is customary in war to kill as many of the enemy as possible." I guess that pretty much sums up how me, and folks in Bristol/Kingsport/Johnson City feel about Bin Laden. They definitely want to "bring justice to him."

[Ken White]

The clothing bit was directed at the fact that they've used the same pictures of him in at least two of the last three videos (haven't seen this one yet).

Can't speak for anyone else but I'm not offended -- why would I be. He's more than a cog in a wheel but he is not irreplaceable, no one is. He does have symbolic value and we don't need a martyr. The more important point is that AQ is not a heirarchial organization, it's amorphous -- the old starfish; cut a ray off and it just generates another to replace it. His death or departure wouldn't make much difference to the organization other than symbolically.

Still there is that symbology. His continued breathing is really in both our interests. Even if it isn't satisfying.

Presidents say a lot of dumb things; if they didn't, we wouldn't be able to say "What the President really meant was..."

And I'm glad to hear the Tri-Cities area hasn't changed that much; Good for them. Bring justice to him is one thing; bringing him to justice would likely pose more problems than it would solve. Now, if he isn't dead and we can just find him. He's as hard to locate as Eric Rudolph was...