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Thread: The Soviet experience in and leaving Afghanistan

  1. #41
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Will the USA & allies learn from the Soviets?

    Ryan Evans, an analyst with field experience in Helmand and a Ph.D. student @ Kings Wars Studies has written a FP review of three books on the Soviet experience:
    Diego Cordovez and Selig S. Harrison, Out of Afghanistan: The Inside Story of the Soviet Withdrawal (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995); Roderic Braithwaite, Afgantsy: The Russians in Afghanistan 1979-89 (London: Profile Books, 2011) and Artemy M. Kalinovsky, A Long Goodbye: The Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2011)
    Many here I suspect will agree with this passage, with my emphasis:
    There are many aspects of the Soviet experience relevant to the current U.S.-led campaign, but none are more relevant to the present day than the Soviet efforts to achieve a negotiated settlement and withdraw their military forces. On these aspects of the war before the war, these three books have a great deal to say, primarily by way of three key lessons: Even a "reconciliation" that promises substantial government concessions may not succeed. Timing is everything. Pakistan is not to be trusted.
    Link:http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts...in_afghanistan
    davidbfpo

  2. #42
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    Does anyone happen to know what the level of indigenous Afghan government revenue was around 1989-1992 with and without direct Soviet aid?

    My personal experience in Afghanistan is limited to only 3 months so far in two trips.

    Based on the current environment and likely future environment here in Afghanistan I have can't help but narrow down the Soviet experience here to the event approximately 3 months before the fall of the Afghan regime in April 1992.....which was the cut in aid with the fall of the Soviet Union.

    The recent publishing of the book Black April:

    http://www.amazon.com/Black-April-So.../dp/1594035725

    It covers the South Vietnamese regime between 73-75 and has me focused on the point where the US Congress slashed aid in a couple tranches and South Vietnam fell approximately 6 months after.

    I'm sure there are heaps of other factors that contributed to the fall of both respective regimes, but I can't help but wonder how current Afghanistan will survive in a recognizable form when approximately $16 billion is being spent annually, but only about 10% of that total spend is legitimate government revenue.

    With ISAF quickly heading for the exit, international funding levels likely to shrivel quickly from short public attention spans and increasing pressure from the next couple of waves of the perpetual global financial crisis, I reckon it's a near guarantee the Afghan economy could suffer a significant contraction in total spending in the order of 30-50%(my amateur guess), possibly more.

    I wonder if anyone has done any open source Afghan economic modeling for 2014-17 with and without foreign aid?

    It would be interesting to compare 2014-17 Afghan economic modeling with historical data from 1989-92.

  3. #43
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Moderator at work

    A small one post thread with 7k views merged in. Prompted by the next post - after opening the thread.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-13-2019 at 06:04 PM. Reason: 38,986v today
    davidbfpo

  4. #44
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default The Soviet Experience in Afghanistan: Getting History Right

    A Lawfare review of the Soviet experience after President Trump's confusion over history; as the Editor explains:
    President Trump's justification of his foreign policy often draws on bizarre theories and bad history. One of the worst recent instances was his claim that the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan because of terrorism. This is wrong, but it raises the question of why Moscow did invade. Seth Jones of CSIS dissects Trump's claim and, drawing on Soviet archives, lays out the rationale behind Moscow's decisions.
    There are several links within.
    Link:https://www.lawfareblog.com/soviet-e...-history-right
    davidbfpo

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