What I meant is that insurgencies happen when governments lose the bubble on their populace. A series of neglects over years, leading to the growth of conditions of insurgency among some segment(s) of the society which are then expolited by some internal or external actor to rise up, organize and challenge the government. At which point the civilians tend to punt the problem to the military to fight the "war" to "defeat the insurgent" so that the same civilians can get back to doing the same stuff that led to the insurgency in the first place. This is why I am all for dropping COIN from the "war" rolls, and addressing it as a civil emergency with civilian leadership being held to task to solve the problems they created. To fix themselves. They broke the country, they must fix the country.
Now, a resistance insurgnecy in an other matter. An external country invades, destroys the government of that country, releasing all of the suppressed insurgent movements caused by the government they took out; and inititating a whole new batch of resistance insurgents caused by their very presence as occupiers. (think IRAQ as the textbook example of this). A good plan going in would have been designed to maintain sufficient aspects of the HN government to keep the existing insurgencies in check until changes of governance can be developed and implemented to address the causal conditions. As to the resistance? It can be mitigated through good actions, good messages, but one needs to expect it as a fact. Zinni had such a plan for Iraq on the books, but it got tossed for the one we employed.
BL is to hold civil governance to task. Also to recognize those in civil government who are the great COIN warriors.
One such was Lyndon Johnson. All anyone talks about is Vietnam and how he escalated the conflict there. True. But his real COIN legacy is how he knowingly destroyed his own personal political career to pass three landmark pieces of civil rights legislation that actually may well have unleashed some racial violence to begin with (Watts came on the heals of one bill passing), but ultimately changed the domestic policies that were leading America into insurgency. That kind of moral courage is rare in a politician. The lack of recognition for his work, combined with the misplaced adoration on Kennedy contributed to his rapid decline upon leaving office.
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