Afghanistan indicators

[Rex Brynen]

(with apologies if someone already posted this)

Ian S. Livingston, Heather L. Messera, and Michael O’Hanlon, Afghanistan Index: Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-9/11 Afghanistan, Brookings Institution, 21 January 2010.

No analysis, just numbers/graphs/charts/etc... useful raw material (if used cautiously), updated weekly here.

[Rex Brynen]

Security in Afghanistan Is Deteriorating, Aid Groups Say

Adam Ferguson for The New York Times

By ROD NORDLAND
New York Times
Published: September 11, 2010

KABUL, Afghanistan — Even as more American troops flow into the country, Afghanistan is more dangerous than it has ever been during this war, with security deteriorating in recent months, according to international organizations and humanitarian groups.

Large parts of the country that were once completely safe, like most of the northern provinces, now have a substantial Taliban presence — even in areas where there are few Pashtuns, who previously were the Taliban’s only supporters. As NATO forces poured in and shifted to the south to battle the Taliban in their stronghold, the Taliban responded with a surge of their own, greatly increasing their activities in the north and parts of the east.

The worsening security comes as the Obama administration is under increasing pressure to show results to maintain public support for the war, and raises serious concerns about whether the country can hold legitimate nationwide elections for Parliament next Saturday.

Unarmed government employees can no longer travel safely in 30 percent of the country’s 368 districts, according to published United Nations estimates, and there are districts deemed too dangerous to visit in all but one of the country’s 34 provinces.

The number of insurgent attacks has increased significantly; in August 2009, insurgents carried out 630 attacks. This August, they initiated at least 1,353, according to the Afghan N.G.O. Safety Office, an independent organization financed by Western governments and agencies to monitor safety for aid workers....

[Bob's World]

Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN) -- The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. David Petraeus, told CNN Saturday the Taliban's momentum in Afghanistan has "broadly been arrested" in some locations.
As another fighting season comes to a close, and the rank and file fighters return to their villages and mid-level leaders return to Pakistan, this assessment:

Petraeus: Progress being made in Afghanistan From Barbara Starr, CNN October 31, 2010

"My assessment is that the momentum the Taliban enjoyed until probably late summer has broadly been arrested in the country," Petraeus said. "It doesn't mean it's been arrested in every location in the country, but it means by and large that is the case, and moreover, more importantly, the ISAF and Afghan forces have achieved momentum in some very important areas."


In related news, as Winter draws near, scientists see signs of progress on Global Warming...


(I actually had an Army 1-star in a very critical position in Afghanistan proclaim that he did not "believe in the fighting season," as clearly the weather was not prohibitive to fighting in the winter in Southern Afghanistan. Now that he has been there a full year his assessment may have changed; or perhaps he is the one who used this natural reduction of OPTEMPO to brief GEN Peraeus on the progress made for his end of tour OER...)

[Infanteer]

Having sat through the end and beginning of a fighting season and having soldiers with previous tours through the fighting season, I can catagorically state that there is a fighting season in Afghanistan.

Most Kandaharis I spolke to said that, at least for the greenzones in the south, it was much a factor about the available cover to fight from as it was to the temperature. Afghan insurgents are extremely exposed from the air in the winter, in the summer traditional shoot-and-scoot tactics become easy. The mountains to the east probably feature a bit of a different dynamic.

Here are photos to illustrate the difference between December and May.

[Bob's World]

MG Nick Carter recently changed command after a great year commanding RC-south. A good man and a great man both, and that is rare. His comments at his change of command are worth the read, and he gave full import to calulating the fighting season effect into any assessments of progress:

http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/De...OnProgress.htm

To "General Nick", sir, it was an honor and a pleasure to serve with you.

[Infanteer]

To "General Nick", sir, it was an honor and a pleasure to serve with you.

+1 to that. Although there was a bit of a gulf between Platoon and Division Commander, I enjoyed the few times I met MGen Carter; he was my guest for an afternoon once. He certainly had a way of getting to the point and certainly felt there was some good direction coming from RC(S); it was nice to see that it wasn't a mailbox as was the case previously.