Afghanistan indicators

[Bob's World]

Shared here is a slide from a presentation I am preparing promote a proposal for a more effective way ahead in Afghanistan. Many are cheering the successes of the past year, while calmer heads, notably GEN Petraeus and MG Nick Carter, are taking an optimistic "wait and see what next fighting season brings" approach.

My position is that this insurgency is best seen in two distinct tiers. The upper tier being a revolutionary insurgency driven by the Quetta Shura primarily, with largely political issues of causation. The rank and file that the brunt of the COIN surge is directed against, are what I call the lower tier, and are in essence a resistance insurgency. This is an effort to depict how increased foreign presence and effort affects a resistance insurgency.

The 66% increase in violent attacks is clear. What will happen next year is less clear, and I submit will be impacted far more by how we engage the high-level political drivers between Karzai and the Quetta Shura than by any nation building or security efforts in the rural areas.