Body Counts and Metrics

[Ron Humphrey]

To me it's how many Surrender. How many surrendered in Gulf War 1 vs. How many were killed. When they start to surrender in mass I think you can say the Will to fight has truly been broken.

Which is why St. Carl said the goal is to disarm them. When people no longer have the Means to fight the Will to stop fighting usually follows.

Just always have to remember that there are various actions/reactions which in the end bring about that disarmament or better yet looks at means in its entire context.

You may very well bring this about through physical action eliminating the armed. Could also get there by taking away the arms, or even finding ways to suppress the effectiveness of said arms. Last but not necessarily least the armed might decide it is no longer in their interest to be armed or come to feel the need for them is gone.

All the above could lead to the end state pointed out by Old CvC. The means can be just as much need/want/desire as it is actual capability to act. And as those on this board have often stated before each approach has its time place and utility.

[Ken White]

Or join the 'winning' side (one of which in an insurgency there is not likely to be; the best you can usually get is an acceptable outcome for both sides. That's great fun... ).

Numbers of any events concerning humans are fungible and volatile. That volatility typically occurs in quite random patterns and with great speed in wartime. The fungibility drives the scorekeepers bonkers.

The numbers -- and they include KIA, WIA, Prisoners/detainees, schools built, dams built, Soccer balls handed out, MedCaps conducted, etc. etc. won't really tell you much unless you get really accurate numbers and watch them for a long period of time to ascertain trends. Not really results, just trends. How many schools were built (=n) versus how many were willingly converted to other functions (=n-w) and how many were destroyed by own fires (=n-do) or by the Insurgents (=n-dI) or just fell apart due to shoddy design or construction (=n-sd or n-sC)?

In the US, a week is a long period of time; in Canada a month is -- in Iraq a couple of years might be, in Afghanistan a decade is (maybe...). China counts in centuries...

Accuracy in a combat zone is if not impossible (for which I'd vote, not least because many of your number counters / takers checkers will cheat prodigiously...) certainly frustratingly difficult.

Touchdowns are good, though...

Unless they're 'own goals.'

[William F. Owen]

All the above could lead to the end state pointed out by Old CvC. The means can be just as much need/want/desire as it is actual capability to act. And as those on this board have often stated before each approach has its time place and utility.

...and thus the primary aim of the military in COIN is to act against the armed opponent. Other instruments of power act against or in support of other aims.

[slapout9]

You may very well bring this about through physical action eliminating the armed. Could also get there by taking away the arms, or even finding ways to suppress the effectiveness of said arms. Last but not necessarily least the armed might decide it is no longer in their interest to be armed or come to feel the need for them is gone.

Exactly!!! it should all lead to Peace!!!