USIP, 1 Feb 11: Reforming Pakistan's Police and Law Enforcement Infrastructure: Is It Too Flawed To Fix?
An effective police force is critical to countering insurgency. In Pakistan, an understaffed and underequipped police force is increasingly called on to manage rising insecurity and militant violence. This report evaluates the obstacles to upgrading the existing police system and recommends traditional and innovative reform options, including major restructuring of the total civilian law enforcement infrastructure, without which the police force cannot be effectively improved. Because Pakistan’s police capacity has direct implications for the country’s ability to tackle terrorism, the United States and its allies would realize counterterrorism dividends by helping law enforcement efforts through modern training and technical assistance.
Taliban/Al-Qaeda assasins kill Pakistani minister
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...DMSKchOBEgbNnA
We go after the Taliban and Al-Qaeda because they kill innocent men, women & children in Afghanistan. They whine, weasel, and defend the same people who're killing off their government, and their country bit by bit. The duplicity, apologism, and excuses that go with their defense of this scum is disgusting and immoral.
Like the man said, "It is as clear as the sun in the sky.", that duplicity and immorality, yet we refuse to see it. What does that say about us?
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
Keep in mind that they have no vocabulary for dealing with this. Many middle class pakistanis are already asking if this assassination was carried out by Blackwater to "malign Pakistan". I am not kidding.
Again, what people in the US frequently miss is the fact that these views are not fringe views. They are not even Glenn Beck style bull#### (where the bull####ter knows he is bull####ting and nobody in the policy establishment really believes his shtick)..in Pakistan, the lunacy is mainstream. Scratch Shuja Pasha and he probably believes its all a Jewish-Hindu plot too. Kiyani sahib is probably smarter, but even he wont have the vocabulary with which to challenge this discourse, so if his officers start the zionist conspiracy BS, he will just mumble and change the subject and pray that everyday mundane needs will keep most people working without going completely bonkers.
http://content.usatoday.com/communit...-in-pakistan/1
Not bad at all. In fact, one of the better statements a high official in the US has made (the usual bit about "what Pakistanis desire" can be safely ignored). At least he openly questioned the blasphemy laws and stated the criteria by which a civilized nation should be judged.
Not that it will do much good. Zardari is courageous enough in a street brawler kind of way, but seems to lack the ability to deliver, and the army is focused on "beating India". They are not going to wake up until somebody drives them out of their housing societies. And they have the US over a barrel, or think they do, so why change course?
A former colleague of mine is an Ahmadi Muslim who was born in Lahore around 1947. He said the persecution made possible under Pakistan's blasphemy laws is what caused his family to leave the country. Intisar became a naturalized American citizen and a U.S. Army pharmacist who retired as a major.
If you are curious about the Pakistani middle class response: http://pkpolitics.com/discuss/topic/...ti-assasinated
This is NOT one of the deep state's network of websites. Those (PKKH, Ahmedqureshi.com, rupeenews, etc) must be going deep into conspiracy mode by now but I have not seen them yet..
They just make crap up rather than looking at the truth. It's fairly pathetic and venal.Originally Posted by omarali50
I don't like seeing how they're going to lie to themselves & cause a real war. Once Pakistan falls to the crazy militants, there will be a war, because that's what they want. Pakistan will be devastated. There is no scenario that has them winning anything. The militants will kill anyone who stands in the way of their fanatic goals, that's what they do, and that's all they're good for. They like to claim religion whenever they blasphemously & evilly claim to be killing in the name of god, so it's fairly ironically stupid that people listen to them over those matters. Little do they seem to understand that no one wins when everyone is setting out to kill people they don't agree with. Any religious dogma that advocates killing unarmed civilians as an answer to disagreement is a false theology that is not good, that has whatever good that was there corrupted like spoiled milk.
The bottom line is Pakistan is going to fall to these maniacs because they lack the will and decency to stop murderers. They're worrying about the CIA when they really need to be worrying about what $2 billion worth of bombs dropped on them would look like. That aside from what we could euphemistically refer to as a cost savings, because we wouldn't need to spend another $2 billion the next year for sure if they choose to give the rest of the civilized world no better options.
The fact is that not even MAD protects them, because they just won't get that far ever.
Bin Laden is visiting around
Tom Ricks at Best Defense pointed out this story from the Asia Times.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MC25Df01.html
The story states that Mr. Bin Laden has been moving about both sides of the Durand Line frequently in recent months visiting many people including Hekmatyar (sic). The author of the story thinks he is up to something and speculates at to what.
This seems to me an important thing and I wonder what others around here think.
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
Carl,
Strip away the historical, interesting angle there is a lot of speculation here about OBL's movements, based on alleged multiple sources within the Jihadist groups, groups that IIRC do not have a history of talking to outsiders. What I did not was that Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is alleged to have had a visit, after the much rumoured talks with NATO and others. That I call exposure and high risk.
Overall, not convinced.
davidbfpo
Lahore police arrest Sri Lanka cricket team attackers
Hat tip to Circling the Lion's Den, a story I've not seen reported elsewhere, despite the prominence of the original attack, in March 2009:Link:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....a-cricket.htmlPolice in Lahore, Pakistan, have announced that another six members of the gang that attacked the Sri Lankan cricket team in March 2009 have been arrested following a tip-off.
Note Circling is not persuaded those arrested are TTP, preferring LeT. There's also the reported arrest of a Bali bombs suspects (back in October 2002) in Pakistan and his likely transfer to Indonesia. Well-timed arrests due to the cricket match between India and Pakistan.
Now will we see those arrested appear in court charged?
davidbfpo
An interesting commentary by you.
While the article does indicate some of the reasons for the malaise, what, in your opinion can stem the rot.
The Pakistani websites seem to be spouting venom against the US for the drone attacks, manipulating the Pakistani govt and leaving it a vague suggestion that the US is running Pakistan. They are however silent on the US financial and military aid that keeps Pakistan afloat.
I am not sure what the Urdu media has to say since I do not know the Urdu script.
It is not that Pakistan is a failure. It appears that the Govt and even the Army are rudderless and have lost their vision. While encouraging the fundamental elements as s 'strategic weapon', they are allowing them to dismember Pakistan with unending bombing and massacre.
What is the answer to bring Pakistan back to the reality of the environment and bring back its stability?
From the point of view of the "paknationalists", things are not going too badly. US and NATO funding for various needs has been helpful, but other sources do exist and will step in when and if the NATO infidels leave. For example, Saudi Arabia and the gulf states are going to need a lot of mercenaries in the coming days and where else will they get them? China is getting rich so fast it changes as you blink. Hopefully,they will pay in the next phase. Islamist insurgents create an ongoing problem, but the good jihadis are still behaving and the bad ones mostly kill civilians. Its not the end of the world.
I write this with some bitterness, because I think they are mistaken. But they are not COMPLETELY mistaken. So the mess goes on. You can check out my views at
http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/03/...imar-republic/
you can see some of the paknationalist viewpoint at
http://www.ahmedquraishi.com/2011/03...united-states/
I must add that I have heard the argument (from leftist friends who credit the US with great Machiavellian abilities) that all these websites are CIA fronts...I find that hard to believe, but its a good time to say "how would I know"...
Thank you.
The major players/ factors in the arena of Pakistan and its stability, as far as I see, are Pakistan Government, the Army, the ISI, the good and bad jihadis, the growing sub-nationalism, the internecine historical rivalry between the Sunnis and the Shias, the targeting of the Sufis and the marginalising of the minorities to include the Ahmediyas.
Then there are the external factors, namely, the US and its actions in Afghanistan, the historical baggage in the form of India, Iran, China (to include China's fear of Islamic assistance to the Uyghurs), the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia.
We will discuss their involvement and effect on the situation later.
The so called democracy appears to have lost the authority (if one goes by the websites of Pakistan) and even the Army appeared to have lost out with the people after the Raymond Davis case, where the US cleverly used the Sharia to get out a rather tricky situation. This apparently infuriated the people more since they could not condemn the provision of the Sharia and yet at the same time, found it difficult to accept the 'escape' of a 'killer' of Muslims. The sacked Foreign Minister did only inflamed the situation.
The manner in which assassin of the Governor of Punjab was feted and the killing of the Christian minority Minister does indicate that the fundamentalists are on the ascendancy and the Govt writ is negligible.
The never ending bombing of mosques, shrines etc gives the impression that either the internal intelligence agencies are defunct or they are in collusion.
The militant fundamentalist organisation escape security scrutiny since they cover themselves with the guise of being philanthropic organisations.
Then the Courts seem to have taken a lax view towards those who are apprehended for these acts of crime.
To an external observer, it appears as if the Government has lost its grip over governance.
The US has its own agenda chalked out. For good or for worse, it would be naive to believe that the US will leave Afghanistan lock, stock and barrel, after so many have been sacrificed and so much money has been invested. It must also be remembered that they came into Afghanistan, not merely to get rid of the AQ, but for greater strategic reasons as follows:
a) to link the Caspian oil to Gwadar. It would do marvels for the US economy as also establish US presence in an area that is strategically important. (One may peruse Dick Cheney's Defence Policy Guidelines and the Oil Policy, when he was the Secretary of Defence).
b) have a hold over Balochistan wherein having a clear route for the oil pipeline to Gwadar, as also have a leverage over Pakistan and also, Iran - present to both some sort of a 'threat in being'.
c) neutralise China from Gwadar so that the Straits of Hormuz is 'safer' as also eliminate any possibility of the Chinese establishing electronic surveillance over US actions in the Middle East.
India, has it own agenda, as is reported in the Pakistani media. It is obvious that if Balochistan is in a state of unrest, it is to India's advantage since the Pakistani Army would be dispersed in the NW and Balochistan and thereby the pressure on Kashmir would be less.
China, is in a overdrive to compete with the US and without oil it will slow down the pace. They are also aware of the problems that could arise in using the Indian Ocean route to including the chokepoints of the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca. Therefore, the requirement of Gwadar, and a safe and secure route through Balochistan to the Karakorum and into East Turkmenistan. They have also organised a route through Myanmar and a direct route to East Turkmenistan from the Caspian. Hence, it indicates the importance China places in so far ensuring an uninterrupted oil supply.
Another fear of China and which is usually not spoken of, is the fear of the influence of the world wide fundamentalist movement having an adverse effect on the Uyghurs. This fear has pressured China to fast pace the demographic change in East Turkmenistan through Han migration, forced assimilation through marriage, depriving Uyghurs of white collar jobs subtly by rejecting them since they do not know Mandarin. This discrimination has spurred Uyghurs opting for education in Mandarin instead of their native language. They are forgetting their culture, traditions, customs and language. Soon, the threat of Islam would be a matter of the past. This forcible assimilation is not new to the Han Chinese. They have done so throughout history wherein today the Han Chinese population is said to be at 97% in China. That this has been feasible is because they converted the 'eastern barbarian' and the 'western barbarians'. The forcible assimilation is well documented in Olsen's An Ethnohistorical Dictionary - China.
As far as Iran is concerned, it is concerned about the Balochis since Eastern Iran has the same ethnic mix. That apart, the historical divide of Shia Sunnis also impact the relationship. The recent happenings in East Iran sort of soured the relations.
We are well aware of the equation Pakistan has with the Middle Eastern countries.
If this be the scenario, then what would be the Pakistan's strategy to balance all these contradictions, if you will, and emerge unscathed so to say.
Nobody will emerge unscathed.
I am personally a hippie liberal at heart, so I just wish everyone would just get along. But if it aint gonna happen, it aint gonna happen.
Ray, Omar & Any Other Interested Persons
What if an "unthinkable" happened; and the US were to withdraw all armed forces (and aid) from South Asia and the Middle East.
In that posited scenario, what would the geopolitics of India, Pakistan and the adjacent regions look like ?
Regards
Mike
Mike:
If I can chime in. I think we are in the odd positions of saving Pakistan from the Pak Army/ISI. If we were to get out completely as you postulate, the Pak Army/ISI would get all puffed up with their mightyness and take actions that would eventually cause a showdown with India. That would be too horrible to contemplate.
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
The 'unthinkable' that the US will quit Middle East is unthinkable so to say
US economy is powered by Oil and even if the US can find other sources within the US, it will not use up its 'strategic reserve' and will depend on outside sources, mainly the Middle East.
If the US quits Afghanistan, then there is good reasons to believe that China and Russia will move in, maybe directly or through proxies. It is believed that there are large untapped deposits of mineral resources in Afghanistan. Russia will be interested since it will open an avenue to the Indian Ocean, through Iran, with which it has an ambivalent relationship and would do its utmost to keep China out. This is feasible since China supports Sunni Pakistan and there is the real threat of a Greater Balochistan, sponsored by Pakistan since such a movement will distract the Balochis and would curb their anti Pakistan activities.
India will not be abandoned by the US. The US interest in India is vast, given the market and the fact that it is the bulwark of US interest against China. India geographical shape wherein it juts in, into the Indian Ocean is ideal to keep the eastern and western flank of the Indian Ocean under check. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands of India is like a sentinel over the Malacca Straits as also a checkpoint to ingress into the Bay of Bengal, hence Chinese sea route interests in Myanmar. It is, however, a moot point as to how much India will bend to allow a free access to the US of her facilities, even though it will be a salutary check on Chinese interests in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and even Gwadar.
In the event the US quits South Asia, it will not abandon its covert activities in Pakistan. Pakistan, unfortunately, is on the boil. Subnationalism and sectarian activities, apart from the fundamentalists, are at work in Pakistan and this is dangerous for the polity and integrity of the nation. There is no telling if the US, assisted by other, will not give these activities a churn so as to 'immobilise' Pakistan.
China, on the other hand, will assist Pakistan to maintain status quo, enforce its writ in Balochistan, for obvious reasons, though it will not be too discomfited if the areas where the Islamic fundamentalists are kept on the boil, since it will ensure that these divisive interests do not manifest itself in East Turkmenistan.
It is obvious that such a scenario of instability in Pakistan will not keep the Govt or the Army calm. Given the fact that the US would have pulled out its troops and there would be no threat in the western half of Pakistan, it would use the fundamentalists as the 'strategic weapon' to not only heat up Kashmir through its proxies, but also undertake terrorist act within India to keep India on tenterhooks.
It would then be the ideal scenario for war between India and Pakistan, and given the delicate situation in Pakistan, could lead to a nuclear exchange.
Therefore, it would be to no one's interest that the US should leave the region, lock stock and barrel.
Last edited by Ray; 04-08-2011 at 05:21 AM.
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