Drugs & US Law Enforcement (2006-2017)

[davidbfpo]

Full title: 'The Farc Files: Venezuela, Ecuador and the Secret Archive of  'Raúl Reyes' is coming out next month and some here maybe interested.

The IISS advert:

This Strategic Dossier provides unique insights into the thinking and evolution of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). It is based on a study of the computer disks belonging to Luis Edgar Devía Silva (aka Raúl Reyes), head of FARC’s International Committee (COMINTER), that were seized by Colombian armed forces in a raid in March 2008 on Devía’s camp inside Ecuador.

It shows how FARC evolved from a small, autarkic and strategically irrelevant group into an insurgent movement which, fuelled by revenues from narcotics production, came close to jeopardising the survival of the Colombian state. A key part of FARC’s evolution was the development of an international strategy aimed at acquiring financial support, arms and political legitimacy. The dossier looks in detail at FARC’s relations with Venezuela and Ecuador.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...-of-ral-reyes/

In an email some more details:

In the early hours of 1 March 2008 Colombian forces launched Operation Phoenix, an assault on a jungle camp of the country's largest insurgent group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The operation killed one of the group's leading members - Luis Edgar Devía Silva, better known as 'Raúl Reyes' - and over 20 other FARC operatives and camp visitors.

Operation Phoenix plunged Colombia's diplomatic relations with Venezuela and Ecuador into crisis - and not only because the camp had been located almost 2km inside the latter's territory. Along with Reyes' body, Colombia retrieved a metal briefcase with eight data-storage devices holding an archive of sensitive FARC correspondence and documents. The government wasted no time in releasing selected FARC emails to the media, claiming they provided evidence of official Venezuelan and Ecuadorian complicity with the group.

The Colombian government subsequently obtained confirmation from the International Criminal Police Organisation (INTERPOL) that the archive had not been manipulated following its capture and exploited the operational leads that it provided over the following months. However, the vast majority of the information that it contained remained classified. Until now.

Several months after Operation Phoenix, senior officials from the Colombian Ministry of Defence invited the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) to conduct an independent analysis of the material. IISS researchers were granted unrestricted access to the archive and, since then, have exercised sole control over the research and publication process and the nature of the conclusions reached.

(Mod's Note:It was this that prompted merging the threads).

[AdamG]

Mr Bergman pointed out that so far, no drug submarines have been detected under the sea, but seizures of semi-submersibles have dropped dramatically in the past two years.

That could mean that traffickers have already made the switch to submarines - and that they are evading detection.

"For the analyst looking at emerging threats," Mr Bergman said, "when they see this precipitous drop in semi-submersibles and then the advent of these two submarines, there's a concern that's raised. What are we missing?"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-13141498

[davidbfpo]

Full title: 'The Farc Files: Venezuela, Ecuador and the Secret Archive of  'Raúl Reyes' is now out, for details how to purchase:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...3640&q=0~FarC~

There is a detailed commentary by IISS's Nigel Inkster (ex-SIS) which is worth a read:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...utive-summary/

The launch was on May 10th and just noted (I am an IISS member).

[Sergeant T]

In what is fundamentally a good sign, Scott's is expressing interest in entering the marijuana production business.

[Dayuhan]

The other side of the coin is whether God would tolerate madmen having nuclear weapons, genocide being planned and/or committed, whole nations being oppressed by ruthless dictators, people killing in his name, people growing/processing/distributing/selling drugs which destroy the lives of many thousands etc etc.

The most difficult question you can ask of the "everything is negotiable" generations is "what do you stand for". Long on criticism of the actions of others you at least stand for something they are merely empty skeletons.

I wouldn't know what God would or would not tolerate. If s/he is around at all (I wouldn't know that either), s/he seems to tolerate a great deal.

Fortunately we are not God, and the affairs of others are not ours to tolerate or negotiate. If we set out to reform the world we will accomplish nothing but our own exhaustion, bankruptcy, and collapse.

I agree with Mr Jones, a fairly unusual event. The War on Drugs is being fought against the wrong people, in the wrong places. The problem doesn't come from supply - from the "people growing/processing/distributing/selling drugs which destroy the lives of many thousands" - the problem starts with demand, with the people who seek the stuff out and pay money to get it. If the demand is there somebody will supply it. Users aren't "pushed" into drug use by suppliers, suppliers are "pulled" into the trade by an overwhelming financial incentive, produced by a demand we haven't the courage to address and by efforts to curtail supply that are only enough to impose an enormous risk premium on the trade, rendering it obscenely profitable. Dry up demand, supply is no longer a problem. Leave demand in place, and trying to control supply is like bailing with a sieve.

The problem isn't them, the problem is us. If we want to win the "War on Drugs", we have to bring it home, where the problem starts.

[AdamG]

(Reuters) - Combined Honduran and U.S. naval forces recovered 2.5 metric tons of cocaine from a submarine intercepted on its way from Colombia to the United States, authorities said Thursday.

The drugs were on the vessel sunk off the Caribbean coast of Honduras around two weeks ago by its four-man crew after the coast guard caught up with the suspected traffickers.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...76S0HL20110729

[SWJ Blog]

WTF: Is Colombia Losing Now?

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[AdamG]

An interesting little small war going on right now...

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...MNKU1LC28O.DTL

[Misifus]

This was just on the SWJ Blog feed from Foreign Affairs Journal. What a friggin' joke! Plan Colombia is nothing but a money pit failure. And now the same geniuses who put it in place want to couple it with the same geniuses who brought you "Hearts & Minds" and sissified Romeos in OIF and OEF? Is there no end to our stupidity?

More drugs are flowing into the US now than ever. While we would like to claim that it's a Mexico problem, the fact is that the Mexicans are just the transporting middle-men for the Colombians and their junkies in the US.

Link to cited article:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...istan_colombia

[Bill Moore]

Is there no end to our stupidity?

If there is, I see no sign of it. Too many crack pots out there want to lobby through think tanks and various journals for failed models, whether it be Plan Columbia or the Operation in the Southern Philippines. Which I could find it on (I think it was removed from U-tube), but it was a General Officer from Columbia stating that they starting making progress against the FARC (not the narco trade) when they quit listening to the U.S. and started treated it like a war. Um? You mean waging a war like a war might actually work?

Of course with our very loose definition of success, I guess that means we can never lose.

[davidbfpo]

I read the linked FP article and was staggered at the suggestion. Re-reading it today I found this, which confirms it is wishful thinking:

However, the United States should solicit a significant sharing of the burden from other countries, particularly from some of the wealthy Gulf countries, which have so much at stake in the region and have so far done so little to help.

These are the countries that to date, with one tiny exception, UAE SF, have not contributed to ISAF, like others "walked away" after the Soviet withdrawal and are still suspected to have insufficient control over donations to the 'cause'.

Barely credible IMHO.

[Misifus]

I read the linked FP article...

Thanks for posting the link and the correction. I meant FP and not FAJ in my post. I use them interchangeably sometimes. FAJ used to be balanced IMO, but now it appears to be just as Left as FP.

[Misifus]

If there is, I see no sign of it. Too many crack pots out there want to lobby through think tanks and various journals for failed models, whether it be Plan Col[o]mbia or the Operation in the Southern Philippines. Which I could find it on (I think it was removed from U-tube), but it was a General Officer from Columbia stating that they starting making progress against the FARC (not the narco trade) when they quit listening to the U.S. and started treated it like a war...

Yes, there are many who think the El Salvador insurgency would have been defeated quicker had the US not gone in there to dictate nice guy tactics. As an example next door, Guatemala quashed its insurgency rather quickly once Gen. Rios Montt decided to kick the army out of the barracks and make them go do their job correctly.

You are correct that with the focus against FARC, and not the narco trade, that Colombia has made "progress." Leave the narcos alone and it is apparent how the violence reduces quickly. Indeed if President Calderon in Mexico brought the troops back into the barracks the violence in Mexico would decrease as well, with the exception of the Zetas that is until the other cartels wipe them out.

These are strategies of capitulation against the narcos. The capitulation to the narcos in Colombia is being sold as a "victory" of Plan Colombia when it is in fact a failure. Drugs flow freely from Colombia into Mexico now more than ever. So much for Plan Colombia.

[davidbfpo]

Just in case missed:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-15608811

[davidbfpo]

An IISS Strategic Comment

The death of FARC rebel leader Alfonso Cano during a Colombian special forces raid on 4 November 2011 was the latest in a series of government successes against the country's largest left-wing insurgent group. A fascinating article republished here from local magazine Semana shows in rare detail how his death resulted from a well-planned and adventurous intelligence operation – involving officers infiltrating communities deep inside FARC territory, masquerading as shopkeepers, drivers and more.

The Semana article, which is based largely on interviews with some of the intelligence operatives involved in Operation Odyssey against Cano, may not tell the whole story. However, it shows in detail how intelligence, mostly human intelligence, built up over time and combined with well-planned military operations can transform counter-insurgency operations.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...-alfonso-cano/

[Bill Moore]

Interesting article in SWJ round up today.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/03/us...=2&_r=1&ref=us

Police Officers Find That Dissent on Drug Laws May Come With a Price

If marijuana were legalized, Mr. Gonzalez acknowledges saying, the drug-related violence across the border in Mexico would cease. He then brought up an organization called Law Enforcement Against Prohibition that favors ending the war on drugs.

Those remarks, along with others expressing sympathy for illegal immigrants from Mexico, were passed along to the Border Patrol headquarters in Washington. After an investigation, a termination letter arrived that said Mr. Gonzalez held “personal views that were contrary to core characteristics of Border Patrol Agents, which are patriotism, dedication and esprit de corps.”

More than a little concerning that a view that doesn't support the failed war on drugs is viewed as non-patriotic. This is a way to guaruntee group think by prohibiting those on the front line to provide their insights on a policy that is not producing the desired results. I suspect the idiot who wrote this letter wasn't really interested in whether the drug war was working, but very interested in protecting their budget, and used patriotism as a Red Herring.

[Strickland]

If Plan Colombia is not an operational model of successfully COIN that can be replicated, then it is a strategic policy model of success that should be replicated. If one reviews the process that was followed by the Clinton administration between Pastrana's initial call for a Marshall Plan for Colombia, and Clinton's appeal for Congressional support during the 2000 State of the Union Address, then one will discover a process that should be emulated by all future administrations working within divided government. The genius of Plan Colombia is not to be found in its operational successes or failures, but rather in the simple fact that it satisfied everyone in some manner - human rights advocates, tough on drugs folks, interventionists, non-interventionists, environmentalists (yes - they were pissed about spraying), SOUTHCOM, Congress, and most importantly - the Colombians. It was the policy that become something to everyone. It is the essence of good policy via compromise.

[SWJ Blog]

Should U.S. Troops Fight the War on Drugs?

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[bourbon]

Western banks 'reaping billions from Colombian cocaine trade', by Ed Vulliamy. The Guardian, 2 June 2012.

While cocaine production ravages countries in Central America, consumers in the US and Europe are helping developed economies grow rich from the profits, a study claims

The most far-reaching and detailed analysis to date of the drug economy in any country – in this case, Colombia – shows that 2.6% of the total street value of cocaine produced remains within the country, while a staggering 97.4% of profits are reaped by criminal syndicates, and laundered by banks, in first-world consuming countries.

"The story of who makes the money from Colombian cocaine is a metaphor for the disproportionate burden placed in every way on 'producing' nations like Colombia as a result of the prohibition of drugs," said one of the authors of the study, Alejandro Gaviria, launching its English edition last week.

[Bill Moore]

An interesting series of articles enclosed to demonstrate growing trends and links between networks.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/09/justic...ing/index.html

Puerto Rico: A forgotten front in America's drug war?

But some analysts say a new trend may be pushing even more cargo containers, fishing boats and yachts with hidden compartments toward Puerto Rico's shores from South America (often by way of the Dominican Republic).

Faced with increased security at the Mexico-U.S. border, cartels may be searching for other trafficking routes, some analysts and officials speculate.

"If you attack one front, if you put your resources there, they search for other avenues, and the Caribbean is one of those avenues," says Pedro A. Velez Baerga, an attorney and former deputy U.S. Marshal in Puerto Rico.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/09/us/mex...usa/index.html

In small-town USA, business as usual for Mexican cartels

News of cartel machinations are common in cities near the border, such as Phoenix, and the far-flung drug hubs of New York, Chicago or Atlanta, but smaller towns bring business, too. In unsuspecting suburbs and rural areas, police are increasingly finding drugs, guns and money they can trace back to Mexican drug organizations.

In 2009 and 2010, the center reported, cartels operated in 1,286 U.S. cities, more than five times the number reported in 2008. The center named only 50 cities in 2006.

It's a microcosm of what's happening in the country, as cartels quietly begin operating anywhere that lends them a competitive advantage in a market that contains about 4 percent of the world's population yet consumes roughly two-thirds of its illegal drugs.

The core of the problem is market demand. Drilling down another level there is a serious problem with our culture that somehow promotes addictive behavior whether it is video games, smoking, junk food, and of course drugs. More and more people are in search of a quick pleasure hit, and are void of values to guide their life. And we want to promote our culture globally?

http://www.capradio.org/news/npr/sto...RERqYI.twitter

Mexicans Want New Approach To Bloody Drug War

Pena Nieto's strategy — targeting criminal violence over pursuing and arresting capos — would be more popular than the current approach.

"People don't care about the drugs; people don't care about the narcos. It's the violence associated with the drugs," says Carlos Seoane, vice president for the security firm Pinkerton Consulting and Investigations in Mexico. There's a name for this strategy, he says — crime management.

"So what has to be the message?" Seoane continues. "If you go over this line we will fight you until we eliminate you. We can do business as long as there are no killings, no shootings, everything quiet like it was in the past."

An interesting discussion, and if the political situation actually drives this course of action after the election it will have major implications for our current strategy.

http://www.krgv.com/news/increase-ex...sing-into-rgv/

Increase Expected in Chinese Illegal Immigrants Crossing into RGV

He says the Zetas and Chinese mafia have a drug trafficking network that runs through Latin America. U.S. drug agents and customs officers intercepted 40-foot containers filled with a highly dangerous and addictive drug used to make methamphetamine. The containers were headed to the Zetas in Belize. The seizure is reportedly worth $10 billion.

"If the intelligence continues to show the Chinese are partnering with the Zetas, you're going to see an obvious increase in the number of Chinese coming across," says Jordan.

The U.S. State Department's 2010 human trafficking report states the Zetas have the biggest human trafficking network in the world transporting Asians. They charge up to $70,000 or more per person. According to Jordan, human trafficking is the cartels' second biggest moneymaker.