Severe Space Weather

[AdamG]

(Reuters) - The strongest geomagnetic storm in more than six years was forecast to hit Earth's magnetic field on Tuesday, and it could affect airline routes, power grids and satellites, the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...80M25Q20120123

[wm]

{RANT ON}I wish that the snippets of articles AdamG posts could have a few of additions.
First, it would be nice if the poster would make something of these posts--explain the "so what" of the post. The following is an example--the post had no subject and no analysis or discussion.

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news...eading-our-way

Word of today's blast, technically known as a coronal mass ejection or CME, comes via SpaceWeather.com's Tony Phillips. NASA says the outburst sparked an M3.2-class solar flare, as well as a stream of electrically charged particles that is due to interact with Earth's magnetic field on Saturday.

Next , a follow up would be nice. The linked article noted a possible impact. So after 4 days, one might expect to see a follow on to identify what actually happened when the storm hit. But, all we have from AdamG is a new post about another space storm that might be coming to harm us.
In fact, on Jan 22, a couple of follow ups were made to the original story: Excerpted from one is the following

The storm of electrically charged particles is projected to take a relatively non-threatening path past our planet. "We think it'll go to the north of Earth ... rather than right at us," he said.

and the later follow up had this to say

The Space Weather Prediction Center is showing a rise in solar particle flux, and European observers are passing along some great pictures.

(As an aside, I'm not clear how brighter Northern Lights seen afurther south has much to do with Small Wars. )



Finally, the snippets tend to be pulled out of context. In this case, as the following quotation from that same article shows, the scare found in the posted excerpt was almost completely dismissed 2 sentences later.

M-class flares are capable of causing brief radio blackouts near the poles as well as minor radiation storms, but it's unlikely that this one will disrupt communication or power transmission networks. The forecast would be different if it were an X-class storm heading our way.

{RANT OFF}

[AdamG]

Next , a follow up would be nice. The linked article noted a possible impact. So after 4 days, one might expect to see a follow on to identify what actually happened when the storm hit. But, all we have from AdamG is a new post about another space storm that might be coming to harm us.

Instead of complaining, you can do a followup. There's nothing stopping you, is there?

[AdamG]

On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events,
Space Weather, 10, S02012, doi:10.1029/2011SW000734.
Riley, P. (2012), Received 16 September 2011; accepted 22 December 2011; published 23 February 2012.

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others.

In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and >30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future.

For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst < −850 nT) occurring within the next decade is ∼12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/201...SW000734.shtml

[AdamG]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE: A CME propelled toward Earth by this morning's X5-class solar flare is expected to reach our planet on March 8th at 0625 UT (+/- 7 hr). Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the CME's forecast track, say the impact could spark a strong-to-severe geomagnetic storm. Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, phone.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

WASHINGTON — The largest solar flare in five years is racing toward Earth, threatening to unleash a torrent of charged particles that could disrupt power grids, GPS and airplane flights.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...zwR_story.html

[AdamG]

A new government list of major threats to the UK has identified solar flares as one of the top risks to the country's way of life. Solar flares are explosions on the surface of the sun that can blast solar winds made up of charge particles towards the earth, disrupting electronic equipment. The UK's ever-increasing reliance upon technology makes it particularly vulnerable.

http://www.techradar.com/news/world-...s-list-1072073

[AdamG]

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because this sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend. Geomagnetic storm alerts: text, voice.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[AdamG]

Reference the post immediately above -

Washington (AFP) - Back in 2012, the Sun erupted with a powerful solar storm that just missed the Earth but was big enough to "knock modern civilization back to the 18th century," NASA said.

The extreme space weather that tore through Earth's orbit on July 23, 2012, was the most powerful in 150 years, according to a statement posted on the US space agency website Wednesday.

http://news.yahoo.com/earth-survived...222404357.html


Also

Are nuclear reactors vulnerable to solar storms?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...CTae_blog.html

[AdamG]

Early this morning (Sept. 6), the sun released two powerful solar flares — the second was the most powerful in more than a decade.
At 5:10 a.m. EDT (0910 GMT), an X-class solar flare — the most powerful sun-storm category — blasted from a large sunspot on the sun's surface. That flare was the strongest since 2015, at X2.2, but it was dwarfed just 3 hours later, at 8:02 a.m. EDT (1202 GMT), by an X9.3 flare, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The last X9 flare occurred in 2006#(coming in at X9.0).

https://www.space.com/38057-sun-unle...lar-flare.html

Nice shot group - rolls across the US from Sea-Tac over Chicago through NYC.

G3 Watch: 7 through 9 September, 2017 due to CME Effects

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g3-wat...ue-cme-effects

[AdamG]

Forecast: cloudy with a chance of flaming debris.

China's defunct and reportedly out-of-control Tiangong 1 space station is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere sometime this weekend. It poses only a slight risk to people and property on the ground, since most of the bus-size, 8.5-ton vehicle is expected to burn up on re-entry, although space agencies don't know exactly when or where that will happen.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/busi...#storylink=cpy

[AdamG]

An extraordinary account of the impact space weather had on military operations in Vietnam in 1972 was found buried in the U.S. Navy archives, according to a newly published article in Space Weather.

On August 4, 1972, the crew of a U.S. Task Force 77 aircraft flying near a naval minefield in the waters off Hon La observed 20 to 25 explosions over about 30 seconds. They also witnessed an additional 25 to 30 mud spots in the waters nearby.

Destructor sea mines had been deployed here during Operation Pocket Money, a mining campaign launched in 1972 against principal North Vietnamese ports.

There was no obvious reason why the mines should have detonated. But it has now emerged the U.S. Navy soon turned its attention to extreme solar activity at the time as a probable cause.

The more we can understand the impact of such space weather on technology then the better we can be prepared for any future extreme solar activity.

https://www.newsweek.com/massive-sol...am-war-1206502

[davidbfpo]

The original article was on an academic website and the author has responded to some of the comments - which may be of interest:https://theconversation.com/blasts-from-the-past-how-massive-solar-eruptions-probably-detonated-dozens-of-us-sea-mines-105983?