The new Libya: various aspects

[davidbfpo]

A first-hand account of the situation, albeit a few weeks ago, by Peter Oborne and what better illustration of the lack of government:

..we visited a detention centre at Gharyan an hour’s drive south of Tripoli. The inmates were blacks, most of whom had been caught sneaking into Libya from sub-Saharan Africa in search of work. The thoughtful and engaging camp commander, a former English teacher called Emad Sagar...explained that he received no help of any kind from the government, that his militia fighters were untrained as prison guards, and that the only way he could feed the prisoners was by stealing from local businesses at gunpoint.

Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/issues/2-...libya-notebook

Elsewhere he wrote:

The government is offering payments of £10,00 to each fighter in an effort to persuade them to return to civilian life. It has reportedly already paid out around a billion pounds in this way, but that hasn't bought stability. At another roadblock, furious militiamen say they haven't been paid yet and vow to fight on.

Link:http://www.channel4.com/programmes/u...2012/episode-7

[Dayuhan]

Before that, some US authority existed for summary executions if ordered by a field grade officer (e.g., Tony Waller was found not guilty for Samar; at about the same time, Breaker Morant was shot in South Africa for the same thing).

Not quite the same thing: Morant killed people with white skin, Waller killed people with brown skin. There was once a big difference; some would say there still is.

[davidbfpo]

Dr. Omar Ashour an astute observer of matters Arabic and with time on the ground has written a short (8 pgs) Brookings paper 'Libyan Islamists Unpacked: Rise, Transformation, and Future':

The policy briefing is divided into three parts. The first section identifies the main Islamist forces in Libya and briefly overviews their backgrounds. The second part attempts to understand the salient issues facing Libyan Islamists and the effect they have on Islamist political behavior. The final section concludes with policy implications for the international community.

Link:http://www.brookings.edu/research/pa...2-libya-ashour

[davidbfpo]

At last some insight that explains what has happened:

Early electoral results indicate that the liberal, secular-leaning National Forces Alliance of Mahmoud Jibril, the former wartime Prime Minister of the rebels’ National Transitional Council (NTC), has swept the majority of the country’s new parliament.

Link:http://world.time.com/2012/07/10/why...#ixzz20UIxPP3N

Libya is clearly not in the same league as Egypt within the Arab World, but after a violent change of governance (NATO & US aided) one hardly expected to see the labels 'liberal, secular-leaning' forming a majority.

[Dayuhan]

Foreign Affairs piece on the aftermath:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...spawn_4-072612

Not a particularly optimistic view.

Of course even if "liberal, secular-leaning" groups do take over government, they may or may not be able to regain control of the country. A great deal will depend on getting back at least some of the money the old regime stashed outside, and ob being able to put together a credible enough armed force and a solid enough re-integration program to force the militias to demobilize. None of that will be easy and there's certainly a chance for a full-scale meltdown.

On the other hand, the voter turnout and the generally peaceful election, as much as the results, suggests that there is a real constituency for rebuilding. We'll see.

Items like the one cited above will inevitably lead to suggestions that some sort of controlled demolition of the Gaddafi regime would have been superior. That assumes, of course, that it would have been possible. When a long-standing dictator chooses to fight it out in the face of insurrection and the armed forces (or a large part of them) remain loyal, there's rarely going to be an orderly or attractive solution.

[davidbfpo]

All the nuance you want on the Libyan election and what may follow:http://www.opendemocracy.net/alison-...m-deeper-story

Which ends with:

Whatever happens on 8 August and beyond, it cannot be assumed that Libya has turned its back completely on Islamism - either now or for the future.

[davidbfpo]

Not exactly a title US audiences would expect this week, Dr. Omar Ashour, a regional analyst, has provided insight on what happened this week; the full title is 'The nature of Libya’s post-revolution armed Islamist forces is by no means straightforward'.

Link:http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/opinio...-minority_9544

Some key sections:

Salafi jihadism is not an organization, but an ideological trend based on the core belief that armed tactics of all kinds are the most effective – and, in some versions, the most legitimate – method of bringing about social and political change.....

The tragic death of Stevens and his colleagues has engendered wide public outrage in Libya, adding to the isolation and de-legitimization of the armed groups. Dozens of Libyan activist groups have uploaded videos paying tribute to Stevens, as well as issuing statements against terrorism and Al Qaeda. One of the Muslim Brothers’ Web sites includes such a statement, and Libya’s Grand Mufti, Sheikh Sadeq al-Gheriani, also condemned the attack....

Collective punishment and targeting the innocent is forbidden in the Koran in more than 20 verses: “That no burdened person (with sins) shall bear the burden (sins) of another” (The Star Chapter 53:18).

There is a main thread on Libya, so this will be merged there another day.

[carl]

David:

Where is the main thread on Libya? I can't find it.

[davidbfpo]

Updated

The short thread 'Benghazi and Libya's Jihadist Minority' has been merged into this main Libya thread.

[davidbfpo]

From the BBC:

At least four people have been killed in the Libyan city of Benghazi after military police and protesters took over militia bases. The violence followed a day of protests by tens of thousands of citizens demanding an end to the armed groups. The bases include the HQ of the Islamist group Ansar al-Sharia, suspected of involvement in an attack on the US consulate in the city.....Earlier, some 30,000 protesters marched through Benghazi calling for an end to the armed groups and a return to the rule of law.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19680785 and slightly different, more detail:http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa...259561409.html

Will this be well covered by the US media?

[Peter Dow]

Check out my "My plan for a secure diplomatic military base for Libya" post in my "Diplomatic security after terrorists kill US Ambassador in Benghazi, Libya" thread in the "Government Agencies & Officials" forum of this SWC forums.

[tequila]

From the BBC:

Will this be well covered by the US media?

Were any Americans killed?

[davidbfpo]

Were any Americans killed?

No, point taken though on how editors regulate what we the audience see.

Amidst all the tomes, documents and more on counter-radicalisation, even CT, the West refers to local action being best. So when it happens, as it has in Benghazi, it should be reported. No, it is not an 'awakening'. It is a good sign for Libya and others.

[Steve Blair]

Were any Americans killed?

It's an election year. Precious little will be well-covered until sometime in December (if then).

[tequila]

Amidst all the tomes, documents and more on counter-radicalisation, even CT, the West refers to local action being best. So when it happens, as it has in Benghazi, it should be reported. No, it is not an 'awakening'. It is a good sign for Libya and others.

I fully agree, and I think that this is a relatively good sign, though obviously follow-through is necessary. Hopefully the Libyan government can mobilize this into real support for a genuine national army.

[carl]

Will this be well covered by the US media?

Well covered? I don't know but it was covered and you could read about it in the local paper, here anyway. That is pretty good for something that happened where no Americans were killed.

[SWJ Blog]

White House Mulls How to Strike Over Libya Attack

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[Bill Moore]

http://rt.com/news/bani-walid-libya-violence-251/

'Libyan humanitarian catastrophe ignored by Western media'

RT: There's yet been no international response to the fact that civilians are being killed in Bani Walid, especially from those states that backed the revolution in Libya a year ago. Why is that?

Neil Clark: Let’s think back to February 2011. We couldn’t pick up a newspaper in the UK or the US or put on the BBC or CNN without hearing about what was going on in Libya. The Humanitarian disaster, we were told Colonel Gaddafi’s forces were killing lots of people, there were dangers of a massive massacre in Benghazi, and because of that we went to war…that was the reason for war. And today, the situation is much worse. We’ve got a humanitarian catastrophe taking place. The number of people killed since NATO intervened has gone up by ten to twenty times. We’ve got massacres going on at the moment and there’s complete silence here in the UK and in the US.

This should be informative to all those who want to help the "freedom fighters" in Syria. Civil Wars don't just end, revenge will be extracted for a long time afterwards. It is likely more people are being killed after Qadaffi was killed than during the rebellion.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2012/10/199742.htm

Libya: U.S. State Department Daily Press Briefing: Libya

This is a very interesting exchange between a Russian journalist the State Department spokesperson. If it was a debate I would give the Russian the win, but more importantly it appears we suppressing more bad news coming out of Libya. Since the info comes from a .gov site we should be able to cut and paste more than two paragraphs without copy right violation issues.

QUESTION: The story in Libya and Bani Walid continues to grow in its cruel brutality. And the matter at hand is a systematic slaughter of Bani Walid’s population by what used to be anti-Qadhafi rebels for not towing the party line and not supporting Libya’s new rule and government quickly enough and with quite open heart. Only yesterday, on Wednesday, 600 local residents --

MS. NULAND: Is there a question here, or is this a political statement that you’re making here in the briefing room?

QUESTION: No, no, just a – I wondering, 600 people, local resident, were allegedly killed yesterday --

MS. NULAND: Can you tell me what news organization you’re from?

QUESTION: -- and why this – and local appealing for the international aid and an international call, but why this call? Why these massacre completely ignored by the Western community and the – particularly by the U.S.?

MS. NULAND: Where are you from, please? What news organization?

QUESTION: Vera Volokhonovich, RT.

MS. NULAND: From Russian TV.

QUESTION: Russia. Yeah. Yeah.

MS. NULAND: Well, first of all, we haven’t ignored this at all. We talked about it a number of times here, and we’ve spoken about it very clearly. We have been urging restraint on all sides, respect for human rights and humanitarian law. We’ve been calling on Libyan authorities and rebel groups to provide access for humanitarian organizations who are trying to provide humanitarian assistance. And frankly, we can’t confirm any of these press reporting of what is actually ongoing there, but we are calling on all sides to exercise restraint.

QUESTION: But why Washington blocked – why did Washington block the statement – draft statement proposed by Russia for the United Nations Security Council resolution, which called for a peaceful solution for this conflict?

MS. NULAND: Well, I can’t speak to what may be going on at USUN. I’m not aware of what the Russian statement might have been. I will send you up to our people in New York to discuss that. But our position on this is absolutely clear: We support the efforts of the Libyan Government to get control of militias and to provide security throughout the country, including in Bani Walid, and to do so in a way that is respectful of the human rights of all citizens, and allows humanitarian organizations to get in. So we are watching this situation very closely.

[SWJ Blog]

Petraeus’s Quieter Style at CIA Leaves Void on Libya Furor

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[BayonetBrant]

For anyone that might be interested, there's a scenario for the Lock'n'Load board game series that depicts the last stand of Kadhafi



other Libya scenarios are here:
http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/2...-day-of-heroes