The Russian economy (catch all)

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh, gawd, you read Russian - how do you managed to mistook "Azbuka vkusa"(highest prices in Moscow, vanity shop for nouveau riche) for "Seven continent"(middle-to-high prices)?
Next time I'll go to the nearest retail shop for lower classes and bring some photos of shelves full of Russian and unsanctioned foodstuff with a small token of grub wich fall into sanctions.




Yeah, Russian reversal - cookies like you

you still have not answered you own comments about those zealous Christian Cossacks that were badly beaten into the ground and have been retreating into Donetsk ---so again where did they take the 36 bodies comrade as they seemed to not make Donetsk?.

you still think those zealous Christian Cossacks are great fighters---well it looks like the Ukrainian National Guard seems to have defeated that Russian myth of your did they not comrade?

even the FSB officer Girkin was complaining on his cell phone about their fighting abilities---with quality mercenaries like that no wonder they are losing against a ragtag Ukrainian Army----- well so much for the glorious Russian Army training.

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh, gawd, you read Russian - how do you managed to mistook "Azbuka vkusa"(highest prices in Moscow, vanity shop for nouveau riche) for "Seven continent"(middle-to-high prices)?
Next time I'll go to the nearest retail shop for lower classes and bring some photos of shelves full of Russian and unsanctioned foodstuff with a small token of grub wich fall into sanctions.

Yeah, Russian reversal - cookies like you

just why is it that the Russian government is passing a law forbidding stores from overcharging for food products---seems like your Putin is getting ready for a massive shortage---there was a by the way a picture posted from your own Russian bloggers asking what is the new Russian food diet

1. bread
2. vodka
3. potatoes

well so much for punishing those mean anti Russian western consumers and now Putin is assisting European consumers in lowering their own cost of living for the next year or so with cheap farm/fruit/vegetable products.

that comrade mirhond was a great sanctions example--- is that all the Russia "superpower" is capable of---come on man fruit and vegetables really?

agree with kaur---where are the photos---oh forgot you never answer anything anyway comrade

[AmericanPride]

where I sit yes they will occur- but maybe in 1-3 years and yes the Ukraine internal fighting will continue even if Russia does not formally cross as that is the way of proxy wars but since you never fought in one then that must explain your avid holding onto negotiations as the answer.

In my best Outlaw impression:

"Look! You agree! You said negotiations will occur! Thank you for agreeing with the obvious. My work here is done."

[OUTLAW 09]

In my best Outlaw impression:

"Look! You agree! You said negotiations will occur! Thank you for agreeing with the obvious. My work here is done."

Great finally AP seems to be getting the concept--even based on your statements that negotiations are the only way forward---would appreciate just what you assume there will be negotiations over? What Yalta, the beaches of the Crimea or those world famous Crimea vineyards or those new casino's Putin wants built.

The last time I checked they are still negotiating on the border to NK are they not, let's see they are still negotiating in Baghdad, still negotiating with Iran, still negotiating on Syria, on issues in Lebanon, between the Israeli's and the Palestinians and the list goes on and on. The last time I checked even the negotiations over the South Sudan what were a raving success?

Oh then let's check the negotiations with Russia over the Georgian and Moldavian separatists? Wow we seem to have a great track record with successes with Russia when we see them negotiating-right AP?- -even the INF they signed has been violated or the current Ukrainian Memorandum they actually did sign and what followed it to the letter---right AP?

Can you tell us here at SWJ just where negotiations finally settled a major world crisis?

Again directed question to you----just what is to be negotiated over the Ukraine?---what Russia is to be allowed to be a member of the Ukrainian parliament or maybe Ukrainians will get what free visa visitation rights in the summer to visit Crimea beaches? Or maybe we can negotiate over the shipment of Crimea Sekt to the US or maybe we can negotiate to allow KBR to built a new bridge from Russia to the Crimea.

The concept of negotiations are something that seems to be at least since 2001 failures or can you see a better track record?

Again AP where have they succeeded?

[JMA]

Dayuhan--you need more actual physical interaction on a daily basis with Russian politicians and military and you then would understand that yes in fact he has established an authoritarian rule quasi a dictatorship actually more like the head of multinational corporation as Russia is made up of 4 distinct ruling elites.

Outlaw, the smart guys don't think so, they believe that they are so smart that can just apply a little thought to the matter and come up with a workable solution. There is enough evidence to prove this both around here and in the Us Administration.

[Dayuhan]

Dayuhan--you need more actual physical interaction on a daily basis with Russian politicians and military and you then would understand that yes in fact he has established an authoritarian rule quasi a dictatorship actually more like the head of multinational corporation as Russia is made up of 4 distinct ruling elites.

Yes, we all know this; it's become pretty much conventional wisdom. The question is how you reconcile the assumption of quasi dictatorship with your observation that "Putin is struggling to get reelected". Dictators don't generally struggle to get reelected, because they control the electoral system: that's what makes them dictators. They do worry about the populace rising against them, but that's a different problem. If Putin is indeed, as you say, "struggling to get reelected", it brings the whole assumption of quasi dictatorship into question.

[JMA]

I do read most of the posts, though given the sheer volume and occasional incoherence it's always possible to miss something. I've seen little or nothing that indicates a specific suggestion. From JMA the closest I saw was a presumably facetious recommendation that the Ukraine be provided with nuclear weapons.

A selective memory I see.

Another example of a misrepresentation of what I said. Deliberate I'm sure but perhaps to you a nuke is a nuke and the yield of a tactical nuclear weapon is lost on you. Not facetious at all. Do you really think the Russians would be invading eastern Ukraine if they were facing - albeit low yield - tactical nukes?

[AmericanPride]

Negri is a marxist... period.

He is a Marxist. And Marxism is fundamentally a critique of capitalism. I thought his work Empire with Michael Hardt was superficial and rather strained so I haven't bothered reading their subsequent works. I'm neither Marxist or neo-liberal in outlook so I understand your confusion.

But I am surprised that with your utter hate of anything left of D.F. Malan.

[JMA]

Dictators don't generally struggle to get reelected, because they control the electoral system: that's what makes them dictators. They do worry about the populace rising against them, but that's a different problem.

You seem a bit confused... again.

Your final sentence counters the premise in your first sentence as applied to Russia.

Arguing for the sake of arguing is pretty ridiculous don't you think?

[Dayuhan]

Your final sentence counters the premise in your first sentence as applied to Russia.

Not at all. A leader that has to struggle to get reelected generally doesn't have to worry about the populace taking to the streets: why would the populace bother going to the streets if they can just vote the bastard out?

Struggling to get reelected is the problem of elected leaders. The prospect of the populace in the streets is the problem of dictators. Dictators, by definition, don't struggle to get reelected. They dictate the results of the election, if they bother to have an election at all.

I simply asked Outlaw to clarify what appears to be an inconsistency.

[Dayuhan]

Another example of a misrepresentation of what I said. Deliberate I'm sure but perhaps to you a nuke is a nuke and the yield of a tactical nuclear weapon is lost on you. Not facetious at all. Do you really think the Russians would be invading eastern Ukraine if they were facing - albeit low yield - tactical nukes?

Possibly not, but if the US threw the NPT out the window I'm sure others would take the opportunity to do a bit of proliferating for themselves. If we can send a few low-yield tactical nukes to the Ukraine, the Russians can send a few to Iran... and why wouldn't they? Imagine the price of oil - and the Russian revenues - if one got used? They might very well do it, or something equally stupid, just to show that they aren't going to be bluffed and any move we make will be matched in kind. That kind of escalation doesn't go anywhere useful.

Handing over nuclear weapons wouldn't stop the proxy war in any event... that's why the cold war was fought by proxies. A nuke of any size is a last resort weapon, as long as you keep even the slightest shred of implausible deniability it won't be used. I'd guess that if the Ukraine had a tactical nuke the Russians would be doing exactly what they are doing now, secure in the knowledge that the Ukrainians wouldn't use it unless their very existence was threatened.

Since we all know it won't happen it's a fairly pointless suggestion anyway.

[JMA]

You can't help yourself can you?

Under the terms of the Budapest Memorandum Ukraine gave up the world's third largest nuclear weapons stockpile in exchange for security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence.

Bet they are sorry they trusted the US to stand by that commitment.

Of course the US are not going to send any weapons to Ukraine to allow them to defend themselves against Russian aggression... they don't have the balls for a confrontation with Russia.

If you were indeed as intelligent as you would have others believe you would know that appreasement does never prevent escalation.

Pointless? Of course we are just discussing what we as individuals believe should be done. The thought of the US standing up to Russia - or China for that matter - is indeed laughable, I agree. Those days have passed.

Possibly not, but if the US threw the NPT out the window I'm sure others would take the opportunity to do a bit of proliferating for themselves. If we can send a few low-yield tactical nukes to the Ukraine, the Russians can send a few to Iran... and why wouldn't they? Imagine the price of oil - and the Russian revenues - if one got used? They might very well do it, or something equally stupid, just to show that they aren't going to be bluffed and any move we make will be matched in kind. That kind of escalation doesn't go anywhere useful.

Handing over nuclear weapons wouldn't stop the proxy war in any event... that's why the cold war was fought by proxies. A nuke of any size is a last resort weapon, as long as you keep even the slightest shred of implausible deniability it won't be used. I'd guess that if the Ukraine had a tactical nuke the Russians would be doing exactly what they are doing now, secure in the knowledge that the Ukrainians wouldn't use it unless their very existence was threatened.

Since we all know it won't happen it's a fairly pointless suggestion anyway.

[JMA]

Nah...

You getting yourself in a tangle here.

As long as there is the near certainty of the populace taking to the streets which could get ugly Putin needs to be careful just how much he can 'fiddle' the election.

You tried to be smart in a reply to Outlook, you got it wrong.

Not at all. A leader that has to struggle to get reelected generally doesn't have to worry about the populace taking to the streets: why would the populace bother going to the streets if they can just vote the bastard out?

Struggling to get reelected is the problem of elected leaders. The prospect of the populace in the streets is the problem of dictators. Dictators, by definition, don't struggle to get reelected. They dictate the results of the election, if they bother to have an election at all.

I simply asked Outlaw to clarify what appears to be an inconsistency.

[OUTLAW 09]

Negotiate for what? How about starting with identifying the official U.S. and Russian positions. Have you bothered to investigate what they are?

AP===let's check out your comment here---starting six months before Crimea and counting all Interfax/RIA Russian FM comments and comments attributed to Putin and including his Duma speech---give me a number of the exact reasons Russia claims the rights to Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

If one is to negotiate than one must in theory know the reasons right AP that is the supposed cause of the crisis. In the Russian reason count---be sure to highlight exactly what international agreement, memorandum or treaty were being violated that contributed to the armed annexation of the Crimea and the sending of weapons and Russian mercenaries into the Ukraine.

With the shot down of MH17 we have currently 14 different versions running around the globe by the way---that is a bad example of where to start negotiations is it not AP?

Await your count and your highlighting.

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh, gawd, you read Russian - how do you managed to mistook "Azbuka vkusa"(highest prices in Moscow, vanity shop for nouveau riche) for "Seven continent"(middle-to-high prices)?
Next time I'll go to the nearest retail shop for lower classes and bring some photos of shelves full of Russian and unsanctioned foodstuff with a small token of grub wich fall into sanctions.




Yeah, Russian reversal - cookies like you

Comrade mirhond the sixth one of you all---thanks for confirming both you and your IP address are in fact out of Russia.

[OUTLAW 09]

Yes, we all know this; it's become pretty much conventional wisdom. The question is how you reconcile the assumption of quasi dictatorship with your observation that "Putin is struggling to get reelected". Dictators don't generally struggle to get reelected, because they control the electoral system: that's what makes them dictators. They do worry about the populace rising against them, but that's a different problem. If Putin is indeed, as you say, "struggling to get reelected", it brings the whole assumption of quasi dictatorship into question.

And again Dayuhan you simply do not understand the beast you are commenting on---and you failed to mention my attempts to show you how "legality" plays a big role in Russian elections.

You really do have to spend some time in the former Soviet Union and then you will understand. Russia is offering some really good cheap Crimea beach vacations--- but wait the cheap Aeroflot daughter airlines cannot fly there anymore as they were grounded by the sanctions so that is out as a suggested place to visit.

[Firn]

I think we should focus here on the economic aspects to be able to have a more fruitful discussion.

European Banks Battle to Keep Russian Clients Amid Sanction Lending Freeze

Bank Austria, the central and eastern Europe [CEE] arm of Italian bank UniCredit, said this week it expects to keep making solid profits in Russia.

"It is a compliance complexity for sure, a very significant effort, but I think it is our approach and culture that any requirement from the sanctions we respect to the extreme detail," said Chief Financial Officer Francesco Giordano.

Bankers working on a syndicated loan of up to $900 million for Russian steel company Evraz — led by Dutch bank ING and Germany's Deutsche Bank — say they hope it will be signed as soon as this week, though they will have jumped through many hoops to get it over the line.

"I think the deal will get done, but it is more difficult at the moment. People are asking a lot of questions around the new sanctions," one banker told Thomson Reuters Loan Pricing Corp, or LPC.

As usual it is important to point out that the sanctions itself have a rather gradual impact in many areas instead of being a on/off switch. This deal might well go through but it is hard to imagine that the conditions for the Russian company are the same as before. I would be very surprised if they will have to cencede a risk premium. Other deals will fall through all those events will contribute to weaken the Russian economy.

Demonstrating this uncertainty, Russia's syndicated debt market, worth $47.2 billion last year, has dried up since hostilities broke out over the Ukraine. Just two corporate loans have been signed since March — a $1.15 billion pre-export loan for Russian iron ore company Metalloinvest and a $450 million unsecured loan for potash producer Uralkali.

Btw the same goes of course for trade triangles which might involve Belorussia or other countries. Even if they operate successfully there will be welfare losses in the West and Russia.

[OUTLAW 09]

firn---seems like now Russia wants to forego membership in the WTO.

Seems like they have realized that if they complain about something to the WTO they could themselves end up being penalized.

Since the sanctions hit their first response was we will go to the WTO---think they have found out that it is not that easy and I think they were shocked by the Yukos court decision of 50B USD.

It is really as if they do not understand globalization of economic systems---they have had way to much state owned economics and cannot seem to make the shift to a globalized world.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/1...to-membership/

[davidbfpo]

Three threads are closed to enable people to cool down and to enable a review. This one thread. I will endeavour to open the thread tomorrow.

[davidbfpo]

I have deleted eleven posts and edited many posts.