Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[carl]

The U.S. was the sheriff back then, though. I hear what you’re saying, but I would think the social and political dynamics are so different at this point that that would be an apples and oranges comparison.

Perhaps, but the main point is they needed powerful backup. They could not do it on their own. Now, they are not any stronger than back then and the IS is very, very much stronger that AQI ever was. And, if I read the article right, the people interviewed basically asked for our help again.

[OUTLAW 09]

In relation to supposed deployment of German special forces there....

I would not take such statements literally, or at least take them - but with a pinch of salt.

Germany agreed to deliver assault rifles, anti-rank 'rockets' (i.e. missiles or similar) and ammo to Iraqi Kurds, and to train them in the use of these - 'whether in situ or at a suitable place abroad'. That means: 'sure', German SF are there, but not with the purpose of getting involved in combat operations. They're there to train Kurds in use of German-supplied arms.

Namely, doing something like secretly deploying German SF into combat in Iraq, would be a political suicide for any German chancellor. And Angela is really not renowned for committing these 'all the times' (if at all, then quite on the contrary).

By the way the German SF were there long before any weapons shipping was approved and you do know how closely Us and German SF have been working together over the last years right--especially at the International SF Training Center here in Germany?

[JWing]

Latest security report on Iraq breaking down violence for August. Was a decided dip in reported attacks but casualties remained extremely high due to IS massacres and a report on Peshmerga losses in Ninewa. Actual numbers are probably far far higher as govt has stopped reporting on ISF & peshmerga losses. When they do come out they are always high. Here's a link to the article.

[CrowBat]

By the way the German SF were there long before any weapons shipping was approved and you do know how closely Us and German SF have been working together over the last years right--especially at the International SF Training Center here in Germany?

I know about cooperation, but about their deployment in Iraq 'long before'.... one is left to hope that the Bundestag has authorized this.

Otherwise, not only the SPD is going to rip Angela & Co apart...

[CrowBat]

...namely, from what can be found from sources like:

- Sddeutsche
- DW, and
- Die Zeit

Germany is about to supply the following arms to Kurds:

- 30 Milan systems
- 500 Milan missiles (variant unknown)
- 16.000 G3 and G36 assault rifles
- 8.000 pistols
- 240 Panzerfaust 3 AT-rocket launcher
- 40 machine guns
- 10.000 hand grenades
- an unknown number of Jeeps and Unimogs
- 5 Dingo 1 armoured vehicles

as well as

- 4000 bulletproof vests and steel-helmets
- 700 radios
- 680 night-vision goggles

A team of six soldiers is already in Erbil, setting up a military liaison post that should coordinate deliveries and distribution. Crew-training on Milans is to be undertaken at the Hammelburg grounds in Germany.

So, if there are any SFs there, and if they are involved in fighting... that's gonna be 'ein Skandal 1. Ranges'.

[davidbfpo]

We know Milan ATGW have been frequently used in Syria against the Bashir Assad regime and the UK liberally used them in Afghanistan before their "life" ended. So almost a "glad to go" gift.

Now the '240 Panzerfaust 3 AT-rocket launcher' are slightly different, as they can be fired within buildings - so have an extra value in urban fighting - where the Peshmerga will have to fight tomorrow and after. For details:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerfaust_3

[carl]

I just interviewed Christine van den Toorn who has been doing some great reporting for Iraq Oil Report and the Daily Beast in Ninewa. I talked with her about what happened with the Yazidis in Sinjar. They were at first co-opted by the Kurdish parties, then abandoned by them when IS attacked, only to be rescued by Syria's YPG. Now they want out of Iraq. Here's a link.

In reference to the interview, to what extent has the IS re-instituted slavery and who are they enslaving mostly?

[JWing]

Hi Carl,

Reports are that IS is selling Yazidi women that it captured in Sinjar in Mosul. Have not heard them do that to any other group. Likely result of their extreme prejudice against Yazidis as a religion. Even more despised then Shia and considered devil worshipers. Actually many have a negative view of Yazidis, even Kurds who claim them as their own.

[JWing]

Outlaw, here's something you'll probably be interested in. Interview with a member of the Islamic Army of Iraq. Here's a link.

[OUTLAW 09]

I know about cooperation, but about their deployment in Iraq 'long before'.... one is left to hope that the Bundestag has authorized this.

Normally German media would have pickedthis up but it must have survived under the radar or the German media is simply not commenting on it due to the political fallout if it became common knowledge--not even the Left Party picked up on it.

[OUTLAW 09]

JWing---appears from social media that the Assad AF and the US AF are both flying their own drones in the same air space these days--wonder if they are using the same targeting sheet.


The Syrian Arab air force and the @usairforce are flying aerial missions over #Raqqa side by side now.

pic.twitter.com/JZNeXyN6Tq

[JWing]

Germany sending those assault rifles appears confusing to me. Will not help supply and logistics for KRG. Everyone else is sending AKs, Germany couldn't do the same?

[JWing]

Here's my latest article analyzing car bombs in Iraq in 2012 to track the rebirth of the Islamic State. 2011 was the nadir for the group with much of its leadership dead or in prison. Estimates were that it could only carry out one major attack every 4-6 weeks. CIA estimated only 1,000 fighters left and many were speculating that it would devolve into a criminal gang. U.S. withdrawal relieved military pressure on group and Syria allowed a new battlefield for it to expand and rebuild in. Its rebirth shown in car bomb attacks throughout 2012. Jan and Feb had one day each of multiple car bombs across several provinces likely for propaganda purposes to show that it was still around after Americans left. By summer 2012 able to launch 2-4 car bomb waves a month and announced its Breaking Walls Campaign to restart the sectarian war marking the group's return as a fully reformed militant organization in Iraq. Here's a link to the article. Here are charts I put together for all the car bombs in Iraq in 2012, date, location, targets, casualties. Jan-March 2012. Apr-June 2012. Jul-Sep 2012. Oct-Dec 2012.

[CrowBat]

JWing---appears from social media that the Assad AF and the US AF are both flying their own drones in the same air space these days--wonder if they are using the same targeting sheet.

Syrians flying their UAVs over ar-Raqqa?

Where are photos of these?

The link you provided is showing one of two Su-24s involved in the strike on ISIS HQ in the municipality building of Ghariba village (outside ar-Raqqa), two days ago. Damascus later claimed to have killed 18 Jihadists there and that the damage caused to a nearby prison was sufficient to enable some of people abducted by the ISIS to run away too.

Read: the strike was flown for show purposes, 'for the Americans to see' the regime is 'fighting ISIS'...

[Biggus]

Germany sending those assault rifles appears confusing to me. Will not help supply and logistics for KRG. Everyone else is sending AKs, Germany couldn't do the same?

I'm not aware of the specifics of what they're sending, but is it possible that there are still East German AK variants in storage?

[OUTLAW 09]

Syrians flying their UAVs over ar-Raqqa?

Where are photos of these?

The link you provided is showing one of two Su-24s involved in the strike on ISIS HQ in the municipality building of Ghariba village (outside ar-Raqqa), two days ago. Damascus later claimed to have killed 18 Jihadists there and that the damage caused to a nearby prison was sufficient to enable some of people abducted by the ISIS to run away too.

Read: the strike was flown for show purposes, 'for the Americans to see' the regime is 'fighting ISIS'...

CrowBat:

Again: The Syrian Arab air force and the @usairforce are flying aerial missions over #Raqqa side by side now.

pic.twitter.com/JZNeXyN6Tq

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/s...160256/photo/1

[CrowBat]

OK, let me 'draw' it:

- You wrote, 'Assad AF and the US AF are both flying their own drones in the same air space these days'...

- I asked: 'Syrians flying their UAVs over ar-Raqqa?'

Namely, what can be seen on the photos provided on the link you posted is:

- a) what looks like Predator (and if it is one, it's either US- or Turkish-operated), and
- b) one of two SyAAF Su-24s that flew the strike on Ghariba.

I.e. no 'Assad AF...own drones'.

Furthermore, meanwhile I've checked with few of my contacts 'close' to the SyAAF, and they don't have any kind of UAVs that could reach the area.

On the contrary, in the course of one of relevant e-mail exchanges, one of messages that ended on my PC contained an observation the essence of which was something like (I'm just citing here), '...stupid....[specific representative of the regime in Damascus]... is wasting resources necessary for supporting troops elsewhere for flying "airshow for Americans"...'

EDIT
Meanwhile I've checked with my Iranian sources (the quality of the same can be assessed with help of articles like this one), and it turned they're not flying UAVs over ar-Raqqa either.

So, sorry, but I remain a little bit confused: what kind of UAVs is 'Assad AF' flying there...?

[OUTLAW 09]

OK, let me 'draw' it:

- You wrote, 'Assad AF and the US AF are both flying their own drones in the same air space these days'...

- I asked: 'Syrians flying their UAVs over ar-Raqqa?'

Namely, what can be seen on the photos provided on the link you posted is:

- a) what looks like Predator (and if it is one, it's either US- or Turkish-operated), and
- b) one of two SyAAF Su-24s that flew the strike on Ghariba.

I.e. no 'Assad AF...own drones'.

Furthermore, meanwhile I've checked with few of my contacts 'close' to the SyAAF, and they don't have any kind of UAVs that could reach the area.

On the contrary, in the course of one of relevant e-mail exchanges, one of messages that ended on my PC contained an observation the essence of which was something like (I'm just citing here), '...stupid....[specific representative of the regime in Damascus]... is wasting resources necessary for supporting troops elsewhere for flying "airshow for Americans"...'

EDIT
Meanwhile I've checked with my Iranian sources (the quality of the same can be assessed with help of articles like this one), and it turned they're not flying UAVs over ar-Raqqa either.

So, sorry, but I remain a little bit confused: what kind of UAVs is 'Assad AF' flying there...?

CrowBat---then let's restate your comments for clarity?

1. you have deep experience and can tell the difference between a Pred and and Reaper at say 3500 ft?

2. why would Turkey be flying anything over Syria---not the northern Kurdish portion and northern Iraq--and since they supported IS then fly one at all?-explain that one to us

3. and your Iranian "contacts" are willing to tell you 1) they do not own drones capable of this and or 2) did they not several months ago claim to a have reengineered the R180 and are flying it?--which is it?

4. your Assad AF contacts are what "willing to state on record they do not neither own drones nor use drones-what about the series the Russian recently supplied to them?---that is like claiming we the Assad AF do not drop "barrel bombs" or bomb civilian positions to you not think---so what is it?

Not wanting to rain on your parade of excellent "sources"---these photos were in fact posted to the blog sphere and roughly six individuals who look at such air identification phootos came to the same conclusion--- and in fact your claimed SU24 you hang on is in fact a Iranian drone and yes they fly them over Syria and currently Iraq as well if my "sources" are correct.

Or are you telling us there are no Iranian "contractors" or militia or Quds fighting either in Syria and or Iraq?

Come on CB

[OUTLAW 09]

CB---concerning Iranian drones not capable of the distance you claim they cannot do---what keeps them from being launched inside Syria?

And are these two Iranian long range UAVs simply non existent and the Iranians are what lying?


In his news conference on Sunday, IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali “Aziz” Jafari told reporters that Iran has produced a new generation of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), named ‘Shahed 129’ capable of 24-hour non-stop flight.

“Shahed 129, which can carry out combat and reconnaissance missions with its 24-hour nonstop flight capability, is IRGC’s latest achievement in this field,” Gen. Jafari said.

IRGC commander added that Shahed 129 is armed with Sadid missiles that can hit “long-distance” targets. (ISNA, 17 September)

In August 2010, Iran unveiled domestically manufactured long-range Karrar Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV). Karrar is a 4-meter long Jet-powered drone reportedly capable of delivering a military payload on bombing missions against ground targets, with a 1,000 KM range and a maximum speed of approximately 1000 kph. The specifications of the new Shahed 129 and its differences with Karrar have not been made public.

[OUTLAW 09]

CB--you need to learn to doubt your "sources" inside the SAF. They should have known this.

New screenshots coming from Syria give a better view of the Shahed 129 spotted over Damascus on Apr. 10.

And it is not what "flying" inside Syria---come on CB

Noteworthy, such photos show that the version used by the Syrian Armed Forces of the made-in-Iran UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle), is sensibly different by the one unveiled in September 2013 in Tehran.