Pakistani politics (catch all)

[SWJED]

Shiite-Sunni Conflict Rises in Pakistan - Christian Science Monitor.

In this Punjabi city of shrines, Shiites and Sunnis prayed side by side during Ashura this week, the holiest holiday for the world's 150 million Shiite Muslims.

But a province away, suicide bombers attempted to strike Shiite processions throughout Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province, leaving as many as 21 dead and more than 40 injured in three separate incidents, including two suicide attacks. The violence, the latest in a sharp uptick against Pakistan's Shiite minority, has heightened concerns that Iraq's conflict may be feeding sectarian violence here. Whether the conflict in Iraq is capable of igniting Pakistan's simmering sectarian tensions raises questions about a growing global sectarian war.

The answer is important, analysts say, because Pakistan's 30 million Shiites -- numbering more than Iraq's -- could become a flash point if sectarian violence spreads...

[SWJED]

28 April Real Clear Politics commentary - The Beginning of the "Talibanization" of Pakistan? By Ahmed Humayun.

Repeated attempts at passing the Hasbah Bill in the legislative assembly of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan have raised the specter of national implementation of Sharia law. Introduced by the religious party coalition of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), this legislation outlines new religious laws that are to be enforced by a "morality police." Though the law has been rejected as unconstitutional by the Supreme Court of Pakistan, and Pakistani President Musharraf has voiced his opposition, the MMA has vowed to continue in its attempt to set up structures of religious oversight and enforcement.

What are the prospects of the establishment of religious laws enforced by a morality police in Pakistan? Some observers evince considerable concern. By historical standards the religious parties did extraordinarily well in the October 2002 provincial and national elections: while they typically garner between 5 and 8 percent of the popular vote, this time the parties collected 11.1 percent. Widespread popular disaffection with the Musharraf regime has substantially weakened Musharraf's domestic political viability. He could be forced to make significant concessions to the religious parties or otherwise be overthrown. The MMA, or elements in the army sympathetic to it, will then replace Musharraf and move to institute religious law...

[Jedburgh]

This should also have people concerned:

BBC, 2 May 07: Pakistan Downplays Radioactive Ad

...Officials on Wednesday were keen to reassure the outside world that the latest incident in no way has the makings of another nuclear scandal, and that no radioactive material had been stolen, lost or gone missing....

....This could have been before the creation of Pakistan, and may relate to nuclear material that could not be taken under our charge," Zaheer Ayub Baig, information services director of Pakistan's Nuclear Regulatory Authority, said in a letter to the BBC.

Mr Baig said that the adverts were merely a public awareness campaign to make people aware of the dangers of radiation from material that might have been used in hospitals and industrial plants.

He said the advertising campaign was being expanded.

"There is nothing to worry about," Mr Baig said....

[tequila]

Dressed in Black: A Look at Pakistan's Radical Women - Jamestown. Good stuff on how women's auxiliaries of radical Islamist groups are scoring major IO victories against the secular Pakistani state.

Radical women in Pakistan are increasingly being used by male jihadi groups and extremists, including religious political parties, to serve their interests and promote their cause. This year's protests by women clad in black burqas of the Jamia Hafsa seminary in front of the Lal Masjid, in the capital city of Islamabad, is proof of a trend that is becoming more alarming, threatening and unprecedented in Pakistan's history ...

[Jedburgh]

Posted on Bill Roggio's The Fourth Rail: Taliban Operations in Bajaur

...Less than two months after the Pakistani government negotiated with the Taliban in Bajaur, the Taliban have openly flexed their muscles in the troubled tribal agency. On Satuday, “militants,” described as Taliban but very likely the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM - the Movement for the Implementation of Mohammad's Sharia Law), or Pakistani Taliban, set up check points and harassed the locals for not being sufficiently Islamic. The TNSM deployed over 250 fighters along the roads in Bajaur, at one point no less than 3 miles from Khar, the agency headquarters....

[tequila]

Interesting Jamestown article about maneuverings in Waziristan between Pakistan, al-Qaeda, and the tribes:

Pakistan is experimenting with the Taliban yet again. The primary focus of the effort is to de-link the Taliban from al-Qaeda and bring them back into the Pakistani sphere of influence. Uzbek militants have been the first “casualty” of this re-alignment. Potentially, remaining Arab militants will be next. Tribal forces in South Waziristan under the leadership of Maulvi Nazir are at the forefront of this “movement.” Extremist notions of religion remain their bread and butter, but new political objectives also guide their activities on the ground. This, in short, defines the neo-Taliban phenomenon. It is critical to understand the background, motivations and alliances of Maulvi Nazir to fully comprehend what is transpiring in the region ...

Good backgrounder from the BBC used in the above analysis: Pakistan's tribals - Who is Killing Who?

[tequila]

Moderator's Note

Today, 23rd December 2012, a number of threads commenting on Pakistani politics have been merged. The title was originally on General / President Musharraf's removal from power.


London Times analysis on the recent violent turn in the recent Pakistan Supreme Court crisis, which is morphing into a general challenge to Musharraf's rule. A massive general strike has paralyzed several cities in response to ethnic violence widely seen as being perpetrated by the General's backers.

The clashes and violence in Karachi this weekend have given a major new turn to the ongoing protests at the removal of Pakistan's Chief Justice, Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry.


What had been a peaceful protest for the independence of the judiciary has turned violent and been transformed into a general pro-democracy movement. The Government's attempts to curb the demonstrations in Karachi have had the opposite effect: increasing immensely the pressure on General Musharraf and galvanising the opposition parties.


There are now widespread demands for Musharraf to hang up his uniform and give up power and my hunch is that he will not last the year. This is the worst crisis since he took power in 1999. It is a crisis of legitimacy and it is distinguished by the fact that the protests are entirely secular and democratic in their character.

The U.S. has put most of its eggs in the Musharraf basket. What next?

[SWJED]

16 May Washington Post - Suicide Bombing Kills 25 in Pakistan by Griff Witte and Kamran Khan.

A suicide bomber detonated his charge inside a crowded restaurant during the lunch hour here on Tuesday, killing 25 people and adding to a string of violent episodes that have badly shaken the government of President Pervez Musharraf.

In just four days, Pakistan has been the scene of urban rioting that killed 40, a border clash with Afghanistan, the death of a U.S. soldier and the suspected assassination of a top official at the Supreme Court.

Although not all of the incidents have been related, they have underscored the diverse challenges to Musharraf's authority. As Islamic militants have carried out attacks aimed at undermining his rule, pro-democracy advocates have taken to the streets to condemn what they see as authoritarian tactics. Calls for the president's resignation have grown louder, and there is open talk that the country could descend into broader civil disorder...

[goesh]

http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/archi...23/200392.aspx

Radical Clerics Challenge Pakistan

[tequila]

Alternatives to Musharraf - Washington Post, 21 May.

U.S. policy toward Pakistan since September 11, 2001 has made its president, General Pervez Musharraf, indispensable. This is unfortunate -- and leaves us unprepared for rapid political change in a complex, nuclear-armed state of 165 million people.

Our business-as-usual approach has run up against a dynamic situation in Pakistan. The protests inspired by Musharraf's sidelining of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry have turned violent, dissatisfaction with Pakistan's government and its legacy of official impunity is growing, and social, economic and regional divisions are not being addressed.

Rumors abound that Musharraf will declare martial law and suspend elections scheduled for the fall, or that he is negotiating a power-sharing arrangement with Benazir Bhutto and her Pakistan People's Party. Military leaders in Pakistan, however, have a limited shelf life, and the U.S. government should be prepared for an unexpected transition ...

[SWJED]

25 May Washington Post editorial - Pakistan's Peril.

After nearly eight years in power, Pakistani strongman Gen. Pervez Musharraf appears to be weakening. Mass demonstrations broke out against him this month in Punjab, the country's political heartland; tens of thousands at a time are turning out to cheer a Supreme Court judge who tried to investigate human rights abuses and then rejected the general's demand that he resign. Extremist groups, including the Taliban, are steadily strengthening, especially in areas near the Afghan border. Support for the government in the U.S. Congress, which has signed off on more than $10 billion in aid since 2001, is steadily fading amid persistent reports that the Pakistani army is failing to stop, and may even be supporting, Taliban operations against U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Not only Gen. Musharraf and his dogged supporters in the Bush administration have reason to worry about these developments. One reason the general is unpopular is his alliance with the United States, and the candidates to succeed him and control Pakistan's nuclear arsenal include Islamic fundamentalists and anti-Western generals. Gen. Musharraf appears inclined to use force to bolster his regime -- demonstrators have been attacked by party militias or police in several cities -- and that may seem preferable to the extremist alternatives...

[SWJED]

28 May Washington Post - Teetering Musharraf Buoyed by U.S. Alliance by Griff Witte.

As confidence in Gen. Pervez Musharraf falls at home and abroad amid allegations he is moving away from democracy and becoming increasingly autocratic, the Pakistani president has had at least one unwavering ally: the United States.

Pakistanis -- particularly opposition figures -- are watching for signs that that will change. Any indication of weakening support from the United States, they say, could spell the end of Musharraf's teetering administration. But policymakers and analysts here and in Washington insist that is unlikely because the United States lacks a Plan B in Pakistan and is uncomfortable with alternatives to a man who has been considered a vital ally since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001...

[SWJED]

29 May LA Times - Musharraf's Grip Falters in Pakistan by Laura King.

When President Perez Musharraf survived back-to-back assassination attempts in 2003, he might have thought the worst was behind him. But now, after easily quelling any threat to his power during eight years of military rule, the general appears trapped in a labyrinth of his own making.

His attempt 2 1/2 months ago to sideline Pakistan's independent-minded chief justice touched off nationwide protests that have coalesced into a full-blown pro-democracy movement. Islamic militants have established a firm foothold in the tribal borderlands, and vigilante-style followers of a radical cleric here in the capital have been kidnapping police officers and menacing those they consider to be promoting a licentious lifestyle...

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 6 Jun 07: Pakistan: Emergency Rule or Return to Democracy?

...In 1999, Musharraf declared a state of emergency and dissolved the parliament through a military coup.1 After having himself elected president through a rigged referendum in April 2002 – the referendum was itself an unconstitutional device – he oversaw deeply flawed national elections later that year. The resulting parliament gave Musharraf a vote of confidence and allowed him to retain his post as army chief. That parliament ends its five-year life in October. Musharraf's five-year term as president also ends that month.

Musharraf could opt for one of three choices:

- He could attempt to retain absolute power, as he seems presently inclined, through electoral rigging and constitutional manipulation. As a first step, he would obtain another five-year presidential term by using the present, lame-duck assemblies as the Electoral College, rather than, as the opposition insists, the successor assemblies scheduled to be elected this year....

- Musharraf could opt for a power-sharing agreement with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and her Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which would likely win at least a simple majority in a free and fair parliamentary poll....

- Musharraf could step down as army chief and the military could opt for a democratic transition, with free and fair elections as the essential first step....

[AdmiralAdama]

Pakistani Religious Affairs Minister says proper reaction to UK granting Salman Rushdie a knighthood is suicide bombing

Pakistan on Monday condemned Britain’s award of a knighthood to author Salman Rushdie as an affront to Muslim sentiments, and a Cabinet minister said the honor provided a justification for suicide attacks.

“This is an occasion for the (world’s) 1.5 billion Muslims to look at the seriousness of this decision,” Mohammed Ijaz ul-Haq, religious affairs minister, said in parliament.

“The West is accusing Muslims of extremism and terrorism. If someone exploded a bomb on his body, he would be right to do so unless the British government apologizes and withdraws the ‘sir’ title,” ul-Haq said. ...

[Jedburgh]

CACI Forum, 7 Jun 07: Waziristan and the Uzbeks

....The fact of the matter is, Taliban Mullah Nazir declared a Jihad against some Uzbeks, but not by any means all Uzbeks, and certainly not all foreign fighters. The al Qaeda Arabs, for example, were incontestably not on the target list at all. In really, there are two main groups of Uzbeks in Waziristan. The Taliban, according to Pakistan's News International, were only fighting the "bad Uzbeks," who are part of a splinter terrorist movement called the Islamic Jihad Group, or IJG, a radical group which broke away from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in 2004.

The IMU is the other main group of Uzbeks, and it was not targeted. The IMU is led by Tahir Yuldashev, and is closely aligned with al Qaeda and the Taliban. Yuldashev is believed to sit on the al Qaeda global shura and has tactical control over perhaps 500 fighters in Waziristan. These Uzbeks were not targeted in the fighting; in fact, Yuldashev is reported to have a close relationship with Osama bin Laden, and some of his IMU Uzbeks are believed to serve on bin Laden's "Black Guard," his personal corps of bodyguards. Mullah Nazir is not only close to Yuldashev, but to other known al Qaeda operatives in Jihadistan as well, including Khadr al Kanadi.

In fact, far from being a "success story" of the peace deals, the recent fighting illustrates how completely out of control the entire frontier is becoming. Yes, some Jihadis are killing some other Jihadis, and that's a good thing at the tactical level. But in the big picture it's not a significant win. It can be compared to the Mafia families of New York having a gang war -- the stronger gang will eventually come out on top with consolidated control, more local respect, few if any enemies, and a more focused agenda. The north of Pakistan is a very dangerous place, and the momentum now is running in the wrong direction.

[goesh]

It reminds me of that Al Pacino movie Scarface and the scene in which he blows away his boss and a crooked cop and assumes control of the fictional cocaine dealing family. He then asks the dead boss's bodyguard if he wants a job and the bodyguard says, "Sure" and then thanks Pacino for the job. The rank and file of the ostracized group will simply follow a new leader, no questions asked.

[SWJED]

17 July Washington Post - Pakistani Government Seeks to Salvage Peace Deal by Griff Witte.

The Pakistani government plans to try to salvage a controversial peace deal in the remote tribal zone North Waziristan, despite a decision by Taliban fighters to renounce it and declare war against the army, officials said Monday.

The Taliban has accused the government of violating terms of the 10-month-old deal by setting up checkpoints and carrying out operations against suspected insurgents. But government officials on Monday disputed that assertion and said they will continue to uphold their end of the agreement...

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23 July Washington Post - Fighting Intensifies In Pakistani Tribal Area by Griff Witte and Imtiaz Ali.

Fighting intensified between the Pakistani army and insurgents in a volatile tribal area near the Afghan border Sunday, a week after the collapse of a controversial cease-fire.

At least 19 extremist fighters were killed in the battle, which involved army helicopters strafing positions in North Waziristan, security officials said. The fighting began Saturday when insurgents attacked an army checkpoint, prompting a battle that continued through the day Sunday and into the night, said an official in Miram Shah, the area's main town. Residents also reported hearing artillery being fired in the area Sunday night...

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24 July NY Times - U.S. Military Options Draw a Chorus of Protests in Pakistan by Salman Masood.

American assertions that military action remained an option to quell militants in Pakistan’s frontier regions drew mounting protests from the government and its critics here on Monday, as clashes continued in the tribal areas where the United States says Al Qaeda has been allowed to set up a safe haven.

The Pakistani military said Monday that its forces in North Waziristan had killed 35 militants in battles since the day before, though reporters and residents in the tribal town of Miramshah expressed doubts about the military’s claim. The military spokesman, Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad, said two soldiers had been killed and 12 wounded in fighting since Sunday night.

Fresh fighting erupted a little over a week ago in the tribal areas, when the Taliban renounced a truce in the aftermath of a government raid on a radical pro-Taliban mosque here in the capital. The government of the Pakistani president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, has tried to stitch up the truce. The militants demand that troops pull out of posts in the tribal areas.

The Bush administration has recently stepped up its criticism of the peace deal with the militants, using it to press General Musharraf, its longtime ally, into taking more forceful action against what it calls sanctuaries of Qaeda fighters and their helpers...