U.S., EU ready new sanctions to deter Putin (but stop because fight ended?) Check KIA/WIA
http://cnn.it/1HA4pRf
Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)
A new thread for updates and comments on the confrontation between Russia and the Ukraine primarily, which now appears to be Phase Three of a War.
The previous thread 'Ukraine: military aspects ((Aug '14 to mid-June '15))' is now closed and accessible via:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=21016
There are a number of other, smaller relevant threads which remain open. Either on the Ukraine or more Russian aspects, they are IIRC all in the Europe arena.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-14-2015 at 04:50 PM.
davidbfpo
U.S., EU ready new sanctions to deter Putin (but stop because fight ended?) Check KIA/WIA
http://cnn.it/1HA4pRf
Pushilin says '#Ukraine on the brink of major war; situation could escalate in hours.' http://ria.ru/world/20150614/1069906480.html …Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Ceasefire?
One Ukrainian soldier killed, twenty-one wounded in Donbas in last day http://www.unian.info/war/1089153-on...-last-day.html … pic.twitter.com/QmenGf3mcf
Reports of more #Ukraine casualties from todays fighting coming in:
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/st...21115499933697 …
OSCE Recorded Disappearance of Militants' Heavy Weapons from Holding Areas http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/175...ing-areas.html … via @UaUnderAttack
Militants fire Grad systems on Luhansk villages on Saturday
http://www.unian.info/war/1089170-mi...-saturday.html … pic.twitter.com/08GhITGgb1
#Ukraine: UA troops shelled by heavy artillery. Broken agreement with #Minsk:http://bit.ly/1IUdg1M pic.twitter.com/W0RFUvNtG6
#Russia troops attacking directly into just 1 #Donbas town isn't an offensive; when they advance deep into #Ukraine, then it's an offensive.
AFP reporter injured in east Ukraine shelling - in English https://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp-report...154540885.html … via @yahoosg
Russian Nazi taken POW today @JulianRoepcke pic.twitter.com/fdhol3Husc
#LOLnews
The "DNR"'s Basurin says, Ukrainian forces broke the ceasefire 185 times in the last 24 hours.
Russian ground forces DPR tactical group "Somalia" (cmdr Tolstykh/"Givi") at Donetsk airport via GRU @EgoRZemtsoV pic.twitter.com/rDEV3hmLiM
Russian ground forces LPR unit "Ghost" (ex-Mozgovoy) in Russian-occupied Donbas via GRU @EgoRZemtsoV 14 Jun pic.twitter.com/OFVSEXG7Dt
Russian aircraft flies 500 feet above #NATO warships, officials (almost) 'very uncomfortable': http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/13/po...sea/index.html … pic.twitter.com/UVjzd74HJl
19 Enemy Drones Recorded Over Day - Motuzyanyk http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/17531-19-en
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2015 at 05:30 PM.
Another strong evidence of #Russia special forces' presence in #Ukraine http://yle.fi/uutiset/8073906 (in Fin)
Leaders of LPR sets miners under pressure. Work without pay, or fighting in ranks of militia. http://nv.ua/ukraine/events/glavari-...aty-53651.html … pic.twitter.com/JIbpD1pwvN
Rodina and Novotoshkivske under shelling from Pervomaisk http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-june...rom-pervomaisk … via @GirkinGirkin
RUS ability to recruit volunteers to fight in Donbas is waning http://voc.tv/1QXepom pic.twitter.com/h83Aeo8CmI
With reservists losing interest in fighting #Ukraine, will #Russia send more regulars now?
Militants shelling of #Marinka continued throughout the day, injuring at least one civilian http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-june...ued-throughout …
2 Ukr troops KIA, 3 WIA in the Russian shelling of #Maryinka http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-june...an-shelling-of …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2015 at 05:03 PM.
For two former Spetsnaz service members who Putin claimed were never on active duty and are POWs—this is a rather strange Russian action if they were in fact “former service members”???
Friend of Erofeev: "Relatives have been isolated from the whole world. We [their friends] have also been processed. I can't say more"
.@novaya_gazeta reporter unable to get in touch with relatives of captured Spetznaz; told by officers' friends: "They have been isolated"
Spetznaz Alexandrov: "I was able to chat with my wife on VK only,no one answers phones. Wife deleted her profile after a few chat attempts"
Spetznaz POW : "Ukrainian wounded soldiers are met back home as heroes. RU wounded soldiers are being hidden and disowned back home"
RU consul told Alexandrov "We can't get in touch with your wife or relatives, either". He laughs it off as a lie.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2015 at 05:35 PM.
FaceBook has been attacked by Ukrainian bloggers for blocking hundreds of Ukrainian FB accounts when Russia trolls challenged those accounts for so called violence or offensive subject matter. FB response to the Ukrainian complaints was basically to fluff them off and conduct business as usual.
After sending FB numerous examples of FB actively doing the Russian info war troll work for them.
Seems now that FB might just have gotten the message that they are being played by Russian trolls.
The issue of account blocking is getting attention. #Facebook representative to visit #Ukraine http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/06/1...visit-ukraine/ … pic.twitter.com/OFT4RHZWII
Am bringing this forward into the thread as a perfect example of just how US Congressman seem at times to be either "bought" by lobbyists or simply know nothing about which they claim to stand for.
Jun 11 2015
U.S. House Passes 3 Amendments By Rep. Conyers To Defense Spending Bill To Protect Civilians From Dangers Of Arming and Training Foreign Forces
WASHINGTON— Late yesterday evening, the U.S. House of Representatives considered H.R. 2685, the “Department of Defense Appropriations Act of 2015.” During consideration of the legislation, Congressman John Conyers, Jr. (D-Mich.) and Congressman Ted Yoho (R-Fla.) offered bipartisan amendments to block the training of the Ukrainian neo-Nazi paramilitary militia “Azov Battalion,” and to prevent the transfer of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles—otherwise known as Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems (MANPADS)—to Iraq or Ukraine.
“If there’s one simple lesson we can take away from US involvement in conflicts overseas, it’s this: Beware of unintended consequences. As was made vividly clear with U.S. involvement in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion decades ago, overzealous military assistance or the hyper-weaponization of conflicts can have destabilizing consequences and ultimately undercut our own national interests,” said Rep. John Conyers. “I am grateful that the House of Representatives unanimously passed my amendments last night to ensure that our military does not train members of the repulsive neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, along with my measures to keep the dangerous and easily trafficked MANPADs out of these unstable regions.”
Ukraine’s Azov Battalion is a 1,000-man volunteer militia of the Ukrainian National Guard that Foreign Policy Magazine has characterized as “openly neo-Nazi,” and “fascist.” Ukraine’s Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who oversees Ukraine’s armed militias, announced that Azov troops would be among the first units to be trained by the Pentagon in Operation Fearless Guardian, prompting significant international concern.
Since their initial use on a battlefield in 1978, MANPAD attacks have resulted in nearly 1,000 civilian deaths.
Added Conyers, “Both U.S. and Israeli officials have feared that these weapons could be used by terrorists to bring down commercial jets. As the boundaries are increasingly blurred between insurgents fighting the Syrian government and those fighting the Iraqi government, providing additional arms could further destabilize the Middle East. The same can be said for Ukraine, where an anti-aircraft missile allegedly downed Flight MH17 last September, killing 298 civilians. The possibility that MANPADS—or any weapon—could fall into the hands of radical groups in Iraq, Syria, or Ukraine, would unquestionably increase the already-devastating human toll in both of these volatile regions.”
According to Reuters, The Azov battalion originated from a paramilitary national socialist group called "Patriot of Ukraine", which propagated slogans of white supremacy, racial purity, the need for authoritarian power and a centralized national economy. Azov’s controversial founder, Andriy Biletsky, organized the neo-Nazi group the Social-National Assembly (SNA) in 2008.
“The Azov men use the neo-Nazi Wolfsangel (Wolf’s Hook) symbol on their banner and members of the battalion are openly white supremacists, or anti-Semites,” wrote The Telegraph. Since Azov was enrolled as a regiment of Ukraine's National Guard in September and started receiving increased supplies of heavy arms, however, Biletsky has toned down his rhetoric, Reuters reported. According to the Washington Post, battalion members “could potentially strike pro-Russian targets on their own — or even turn on the [Ukrainian] government” if it pursues a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
Seems the good Congressman "forgot" to ask the Ukrainians what they think of the "so called Nazi Regiment Azov" that he passed an amendment on in the Defense Spending Bill.
RESIDENTS OF #MARIUPOL THANK THE #AZOV FOR LIBERATING THE CITY FROM THE #TERRORISTS OF #DNR https://www.facebook.com/uarighttraditions/posts/856890501064360[/url] … pic.twitter.com/VehTCZed4M
AND I am not so sure he fully understands that Russia has it's fill of Nazi's BUT I see he is not condemning Russian Nazi's--SO why the sudden deep interest in "so called Ukrainian Nazi's"?????
Captured by #Ukraine near #Mariupol, #Russian soldier with Nazi tattoo! The real fascists CAUGHT IN BIG LIE! pic.twitter.com/h7wVL4T4B6
Captured near #Shyrokyne , an RU soldier, nazi supporter and with his RU documents https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater … pic.twitter.com/HWvlaklSg7
Ukraine Right Sector captured another #Russia(n) soldier by call sign "June" in #Shyrokyne http://translate.googleusercontent.c...L3epIbba2m3QBQ … pic.twitter.com/kfkpVnO5Ms
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2015 at 06:11 PM.
And Basurin only says what Lentsov (Russian Army) wants him to say - for domestic consumption in Russia (They believe it!)
Hot spots of Ukraine Conflict as of June 12, 2015
http://en.hromadske.tv pic.twitter.com/2rhB7nwyfY
We agree. These are probing attacks and small unit tactics, not "offensive" tactics.
Several terrorists’ mortar shells hit five-storey apartment building in Triokhizbenka http://en.censor.net.ua/n339989
Numerous reports on social media that #Avdiyivka coke plant as been shelled again today. Augurs (more) trouble for Mariupol steel industry
Terrorists shelled Zolote and Marinka checkpoints http://en.censor.net.ua/n340006
Former US ambassador says Congress ready to send weapons to Ukraine - watch on - http://uatoday.tv http://uatoday.tv/politics/wroclaw-g...ne-438796.html …
Today 74 years ago #Soviets sent 65000 innocent people from #Baltics #Ukraine & #Moldova to #Siberia just like that. pic.twitter.com/F0CpLu2B8w
http://sputniknews.com/europe/201506...#ixzz3d3k1Mnwe
Donbass on Brink of Major War, Conflict May Escalate Any Time - DPR
11:47 14.06.2015(updated 11:51 14.06.2015)
The conflict in southeastern Ukraine can escalate at any time, representative of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) at the Minsk peace talks Denis Pushilin said Sunday, pointing to a threat of a major war between Kiev forces and independence supporters amid a ceasefire enforced in the region.
DONETSK (Sputnik) – Kiev forces launched a military operation against independence supporters in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in April 2014. In February the two sides signed a ceasefire deal, but sporadic fighting has continued in Donbass despite the agreement.
"We are actually on the brink of a major war right now. Our conflict is not an internal Ukrainian one, it is fully in line with what is happening in Syria, Yemen, the uprising in Macedonia,… and could lead to very tragic consequences and, as a result, things can escalate in a matter of hours."
Pushilin told RIA Novosti that the stance of the international community on the Donbass conflict could determine whether fighting in Ukraine’s southeast would finally stop.
"Some major developing countries are giving a certain signal even through their neutrality and non-interference [in the conflict], that they are not supporting a military solution, they are for the continuation of the peace process. A singe decision that seemingly has no influence on anything could become critical and tip the scales one way or another."
Pushilin added that the conflict in Donbass could go on for dozens of years.
"It is not that we will be under fire for 10 years. What’s meant here is whether a full solution on political issues will be found in the conflict. This can take a very long time. This process is unpredictable," Pushilin explained.
According to Pushilin, the DPR is doing everything to bring an end to shelling in southeastern Ukraine.
"What is most important for us now is the issue of the ‘all-for-all’ [prisoner] exchange and the presence of some representatives from the other side who do not consider it necessary to intensify the prisoner exchange process in the agreed ‘all-for-all’ format, they are trying to find some other ways and are slowing down [the process] with their actions," Denis Pushilin told RIA Novosti.
The DPR negotiator stressed that the prisoner swaps was the main issue of discussion among members of the humanitarian subgroup of the Contact Group on Ukraine, which includes representatives from Kiev, the self-proclaimed people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, Moscow and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
The lifting of the economic blockade imposed on Donbass by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko amid fighting between Kiev forces and local independence supporters will top the agenda at the upcoming talks in Minsk, the DPR envoy said.
"The lifting of the economic blockade," Pushilin said when asked about the key issues to be discussed during the talks.
An economic subgroup of the Contact Group on Ukraine is scheduled to meet in the Belarusian capital on June 23.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2015 at 05:56 PM.
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order...#ixzz3d3n9VRsf
Putin is caught in a classic trap
Pavel K. Baev, The Brookings Institution
Jun. 8, 2015, 1:54 PM
Putin is caught in a classic trap: Russia’s military advantage is fading and certain to decrease further.
Sergey Aleksashenko wants everyone to stop calling Russia weak. He contends that Russia is actually stronger than many people believe—to include U.S. President Barack Obama and British military historian Lawrence Freedman among other prominent voices. But Russia is weak and Russian President Vladimir Putin is even weaker.
Aleksashenko misunderstands Russian strength because he makes three critical errors. First, he assumes that strength and weakness are static and so fails to look at trends.
Second, by focusing on the weakest of Russia’s neighbors, he fails to notice that most Eastern European states are not intimidated by Russia. Finally, he wrongly believes that Russia’s strengths can be effectively used by Putin to maintain his grip on power.
First, strength and weakness are dynamic—that is, they change over time. In spite of Russia’s current displays of military strength in Ukraine, the former superpower is steadily and irreversibly weakening. As Aleksashenko knows—better than most officials in Moscow, in fact—Russia’s current economic crisis cannot be willed into recovery, and the economy is set to break through one false bottom after another.
What is less obvious for many Russia-watchers is that the military strength demonstrated so pompously on the Red Square during the May 9 Victory Day parade is also in decline. In Ukraine, the lack of any meaningful political or strategic Russian goals erodes the morale of the troops who are clandestinely deployed there. Nervous about the domestic political consequences of growing casualties, Putin has classified information about warzone deaths as a state secret.
The costs of the war are mounting, and over-spending in the Armaments 2020 priority procurement program is yet another item in the list of embarrassing fiscal setbacks. It is clear to serious Russian economists that military expenditures have been out of control for the last four quarters at least. Such spending cannot be sustained indefinitely, and deep cuts in the defense budget are certain this year.
Second, Alakshashenko’s description of Russian intimidation of its neighbors misses that many of Russia’s neighbors do not find it fearsome. While Georgia sees the need to tread carefully and avoid confrontation (even when signing an association agreement with the EU), Estonia and Latvia have turned their exposure to Russian pressure into a strategic advantage, requesting and receiving substantial support from NATO.
Moscow continues its military provocations in the Baltic theater, but it realizes that the military balance there is ultimately not in its favor. In the Arctic, Finland has joined the international Arctic Challenge 2015 exercise, which makes use of the Rovaniemi air base; Finland is apparently unperturbed by the fact that Russia’s newly-formed Arctic brigade is deployed just 30 miles across the border from this city.
It is prudent of NATO to be vigilant along its northern flank, but Russia has little or no capacity for simultaneously waging two “hybrid wars.” Back in 1940, Stalin amassed some 600,000 troops for the swift occupation of three defenseless Baltic states; now, Putin can deploy only about 50,000 troops for the (very probable) upcoming offensive in Donbass.
Finally, even the strengths that Russia genuinely possesses do not necessarily strengthen President Vladimir Putin’s grasp on power. The example of Russian gas exports to Europe is a case in point. As Aleksashenko rightly points out, Russia has leverage in some ways.
Russian gas exports to Europe, for instance, are essential for the economies of both, whatever proposals for alternative “green” sources the EU energy strategy entertains. This is a main source of Russia’s economic and political strength. (Though, even here, the opportunities for converting these exports into an instrument of security policy are curtailed by the joint stance of the consumers led by Germany.)
How long before all DPR/LPR units are "federalized" into Armed Forces of the Russian Federation? 11 Jun pic.twitter.com/6PX1LfZUsg
Sources and full size photos:
https://vk.com/dnrarmy?z=photo-93369...-51146063_3828 …
https://vk.com/albums-93369497
Some still call them "militants" or "rebels" or "separatists". They are DPR units of the Russian Army pic.twitter.com/JgbwOYba2A
Russoterrorist units try to break UKROP position in #Shyroyine south of main road Novoazovsk - Mariopol
In #Pisky near #Donetsk Airport (remains)a bomb went of killing 2 #Ukraine soldiers injuring 3 http://translate.googleusercontent.c...pRlLqsaH1YFA1Q … pic.twitter.com/XpfIN9zjGX
VIDEO: Ukraine - train with RUS 203-mm self-propelled guns 2S7 "Pion"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTRj0oGeoQs&sns=tw … pic.twitter.com/KGwAEU508r
"No one in western military has expereinced what Ukraine now has" - says Kremenetsky of @DefenceU pic.twitter.com/3kzsjM6UIe
This is exactly what he is talking about-----
#News
#Shyrokyne was under Russian artillery from 16:10-17:35. 122 and 152 mm.
Ukrainian forces were NOT allowed to return fire.
Z. Shkyryak
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2015 at 06:16 PM.
Anyone with Q's about the why/how of Russian Army's relationship with DPR/LPR units, Google > roman auxiliaries < pic.twitter.com/qfoZIa0hng
Russoterrorists 'dnr' acquire new weapons from Kremlin and a brand new designation
"Republican Guards" #PutinAtWar pic.twitter.com/jSe5auv2w2
16 May, DPR decreed all militia units to be "armed forces" based on Russian Federation model http://rg-dnr.info/page/parlament-dn...orujennyih-sil … https://twitter.com/ukrainik/statu
NIGHT VIDEO Massive attack #Marinka last night by attacking #Putin forces on #Ukraine troops https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmPZZ031Mv4 … pic.twitter.com/9mEvFcIphO
Cannot believe the good Congressman would believe social media would not have run down what was behind his amendment.
http://zik.ua/en/news/2015/06/14/ant...vochkin_598626
Anti-Ukrainian provocation in USA was bankrolled by S. Liovochkin
Ex-Regions heavyweight member Serhy Liovochkin was behind the anti-Ukrainian provocation in the United States aimed at declaring the ‘Azov’ volunteer battalion a neo-Nazi unit and banning to give Ukraine mobile AA missiles, Ihor Mosijchuk, a Radical party lawmaker, writes in Facebook June 14, citing his own investigation.
“The links to US Congress adopting a ban to provide instructors for ‘Azov’ servicemen and supply mobile AA Stinger missiles lead to Kyiv,” he writes.
The lobbying was done, under contract with Liovochkin, by US spin doctor Paul Mannafort whose services had been used by ex-president Yanukovych, Mosijchuk says.
The ban was initiated in the Congress by Congressman John Conniers
Reference Moldavian elections---Transnistria
REPORTS OF RUSSIAN SOLDIERS CHECKING PEOPLE FROM TRANSNISTRIA THAT WERE TRYING TO VOTE
http://agora.md/stiri/9909/rata-de-p...u-unii-votanti …
REPORTS OF BEATINGS IN POLLING STATIONS, PEOPLE BROUGHT BY BUS OR WITH AMBULANCES TO VOTE, OR PAID WITH MONEY OR DRINKS.
BREAKING: PARTIAL RESULTS SHOW PRO-RUSSIAN CANDIDATE(ACTUALLY BORN IN RUSSIA) WON THE CAPITAL CHISINAU
http://www.realitatea.md/live-text--...lei_22295.html …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2015 at 08:19 PM.
#Donetsk 22:29
Proletarka - Loud BOOM minute ago, unclear what was https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/610174902444924929 …
9:45PM
Anti-aircraft guns shooting again over the southern outskirts of #Luhansk... Very loud. https://twitter.com/Edward_Lugansk/s...56011400335360 …
#Donetsk 21:17
Trudovsky ds - loud volleys https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/610155148371955714 …
#Russia|n snipers firing from trenches on the #Marinka front line near #Donetsk City
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=174&v=AJyWZK2B_f0 …
VIDEO Russian Hybrid Battlegroup 'Diesel' says it's ready to attack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jPL5IyKhYA … pic.twitter.com/EsJg34VtOB
"Separatist" leader Givi wounded in ammunition dump strike in #Donetsk https://www.facebook.com/vasul.andri...42?pnref=story … pic.twitter.com/PJToucgrBD
Militant Givi, who forced Ukrainian POWs to eat uniform patches, rumored to have been wounded.
Strelkov aka Girkin (on the left) 1992 in Bosnia pic.twitter.com/jDfRCidc7i
The individual who started the so called “separatist” movement in the Donbas
GRU and FSB officer
9:52PM
#Avdiivka small arms shooting, sounds like tanks at #Optyne and something heavy at #Pisky. https://twitter.com/bamr69/status/610157922870513665 …
Yesterday a #Russia(n) convoy of 10 Urals,13 armored vehicles,etc entered Shahtarsk #Ukraine http://translate.googleusercontent.c...k1BDp-0cHtxrQQ … pic.twitter.com/XlumiwWlAU
Rus backed fighters firing from trenches on the front line in Donetsk region (@rConflictNews) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJyWZK2B_f0 … pic.twitter.com/MWDWpGbBah
Ground fighting is still ongoing here--------
#Marinka 22:15PM
Skirmish in road police post area
Ground fighting is ongoing here------
#Avdiivka
Ongoing battle https://twitter.com/Olga_kievljanka/...69041995608064 …
15:22 #Volodymyrivka, #Artemovsk raion @solomazheka the 2nd a day UAV flew over fr/NE to/SW fr/#Novomykhaylivka tow/Kyrylivka
Militants keep intensely firing at Ukr forces and towns: 65 times during the day. Highest no. at #Donetsk direction https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/po...13523328658473 …
Volunteer Bogdan Kovalyov: No truce today in #Marinka - 2 KIA and 15 WIA http://censor.net.ua/news/340038/v_r...ce=twitterfeed …
Today in #Pisky perished a Dnipro-1 regiment serrviceman, head of #Donetsk Leninsky ds Svoboda party org Ihor Kanakov @vo_svoboda
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2015 at 08:35 PM.
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