Yemen: all you want (2011-2015)

[CrowBat]

One of interesting 'events' in Yemen war this week took place on Wednesday, 7 October: on that day units of Yemeni Presidential Guard (not 'Republican Guards' as claimed around; though all of them sided with Houthis) - said to have used a single C.802 anti-ship missile (in essence: Chinese-made jumbo-Exocet) to sink an Emirati warship off Bab al-Mandeb Peninsula.

Otherwise, Saudis are experiencing one abysmal failure after the other - especially so since Yemenis advanced for between 20 and 35 kilometres into Saudi Arabia, knocking out scores of M1 Abrams, M2 Bradleys, M88s and all sorts of MRAPS underay - while Emirati-led offensive in Marib stalled already two times (first time during the fighting for Ma'arib Dam, the other time during the battle for Sirwah, few days ago).

In revenge for all of this, Saudi-led coalition then bombed a Houthi wedding, killing about 135, on 28 September...

... things only got worse: Yemenis then dared continuing their advance into KSA - and killing a Saudi general too, on 30 September. Saudis instantly cried 'lie': according to them, Brig Gen al-Hamzi was WIA but died of his wounds in a hospital, and was then burried with full military honours. But, Houthi-controlled TV then aired a video showing his uniform, name-tag etc. and stating they have his body too... leaves one wondering whom have the Saudis actually burried there...

Revenge: another wedding bombed, this time killing 'only' about 20...

After this affair with C.802 and that Emirati warship, bets are accepted if there's going to be third Houthi wedding that'll be bombed - 'in error' or 'not at all', of course...

[CrowBat]

Seems the YA is back to shooting at Saudis 'big style'.

After firing one Scud at King Khalid AB, on 11 October, the YA fired another in the night from 15 to 16 October, this time from within the compound of the Presidential Palace in Sana'a - and against 'Saudi military air base in Assir, Yemen'.

Not a word about this anywhere in Saudi or their coalition press...

[CrowBat]

Remember this when wondering why are so many turning anti-US...
'All We Could Find Were Body Parts': America's Role in Yemen's Civilian Carnage

...At about 9:30am, the familiar roar of Saudi-led coalition jets was heard overhead. Some people fled as the planes approached, fearing an attack, but many women and children remained inside. Bombs started falling shortly after 10am, the first striking near where the men had gathered. The structure, held up by tree branches and covered with a tarp, was obliterated minutes later. Mosaibas was nearby, but survived the attack; his bride, Hanen Makhrama, had not arrived yet from her nearby village.
...

Initial reports put the death toll as high as 130, citing local health officials. Human rights workers and locals later clarified that at least several dozen people died, most likely between 30 and 50 people. Many of the bodies were too badly burned or mangled to identify immediately or at all. Because a large number of the wedding guests came from outside the town and others fled before and after the attack, those who survived did not know how many people were present when the bombs exploded.
...

The Houthis and allied forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh have been implicated in the deaths of hundreds of non-combatants, often killed by indiscriminate and retaliatory shelling or mines left behind as the Houthis retreat. But the UN says that airstrikes have killed the majority of civilians. The United States military has assisted this Saudi-led campaign with logistical support and billions of dollars in equipment and weaponry.
...

Since October 2010, the US has sold Saudi Arabia more than $90 billion in aircraft, defense systems, bombs, missiles, and other weapons. When war broke out in Yemen, it began to expedite shipments. American arms manufacturers have also sold billions of dollars' worth of material to other Gulf coalition members, including the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Both the Saudis and UAE have purchased controversial cluster munitions — banned by more than 100 countries — that have been used in the current conflict.

Since the airstrikes started on March 25, the US has provided the coalition with vital air-refueling sorties, search-and-rescue support, and help with logistics and intelligence — the centerpiece of which is a Saudi-based "Joint Combined Planning Cell" staffed with American personnel who interact daily with the Saudi military. This support involves what the US military's Central Command (CENTCOM) terms "targeting assistance."

"The Saudi-led coalition is equipped with state-of-the-art weapons and targeting technology, yet airstrikes have caused a tremendous number of civilian casualties," said Claire Talon, Middle East and North Africa director at the International Federation for Human Rights. "It is clear that states providing intelligence and assistance to the coalition, including the US, may be accused of complicity in war crimes."
...

"Without US in-air refueling, combat search-and-rescue, a steady and expedited flow of weapons and ammunition, and contractor logistical support, the air campaign couldn't happen," said Micah Zenko, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who has been closely studying the intervention.
...

Jenks, who helped train the Yemeni army during Saleh's presidency, said coalitions like the one operating in Yemen are constructed in a way that protects members and countries like the US, which occupy a sort of grey area.

"The White House may well be able to claim that the US is not making targeting decisions or launching airstrikes, and that it doesn't control the military forces of other countries which are — so as a matter of law, the US is not obligated to conduct an investigation into allegations of civilian casualties," he said. "It seems now that there is a tendency within coalition operations to not acknowledge which countries in the coalition are taking what action. Coalition operations are providing an effective way to deflect media inquiries and concerns about civilian casualties."
...

The Saudi-led coalition claims that the Houthis are a proxy for Iran, and accuse Tehran of supporting the rebels. The extent of Iran's backing is disputed, and support from forces loyal to Saleh, armed with his weapons stockpiles — including arms supplied by the US — have played an outsized role in the rebels' advances. Still, in Washington, the fight in Yemen is often considered a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

A Yemen-based human rights official said that the US is driven to provide support in order to placate the Saudis after their opposition to the nuclear deal that the US and other world powers reached with Tehran this summer.

"It comes down to the Iran nuclear deal, and this is the price to be paid, the pound of flesh," said the official, who spoke to VICE News on condition of anonymity due to the official's ongoing work in the country. "The Saudis get to do whatever they want to do in Yemen."
...

Amen...

[davidbfpo]

A fascinating NYT piece on the Colombian mercenaries, from the UAE, being deployed to the Yemen. although not for combat yet. They join others too:

The arrival in Yemen of 450 Latin American troops — among them are also Panamanian, Salvadoran and Chilean soldiers.....They join hundreds of Sudanese soldiers whom Saudi Arabia has recruited to fight there as part of the coalition......a recent United Nations report cited claims that some 400 Eritrean troops might be embedded with the Emirati soldiers in Yemen — something that, if true, could violate a United Nations resolution restricting Eritrean military activities.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/26/world/middleeast/emirates-secretly-sends-colombian-mercenaries-to-fight-in-yemen.html?

[AdamG]

A fascinating NYT piece on the Colombian mercenaries, from the UAE, being deployed to the Yemen. although not for combat yet.

Not surprising, considering who we employed in Iraq.

[davidbfpo]

Morocco now commits ground forces:

Morocco has sent 1,500 elite soldiers to Yemen to participate in the Arab Coalition’s ground military offensive....a contingent of Moroccan military police (gendarmerie)..There are 1,500 of paratroopers who have been specially trained recently in Tan-Tan, for a ground intervention in Yemen.

Link:http://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2015...ions-in-yemen/

[Bill Moore]

If Saudi, Iran, Russia, and others are now forming their own multinational coalitions that tends to validate the point we're transitioning (or have transitioned) into a multipolar world. Not sure what the implications will be over time, but I suspect many of our national security strategy assumptions will need to change.

[davidbfpo]

An unusual article in today's (UK) The Daily Telegraph, even odder as the author is a retired senior UK Army officer, MG Tim Cross:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Cross

The actual title: Our coalition partners the Saudis are creating conditions in Yemen which let Isil flourish.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-flourish.html

[davidbfpo]

A succinct, grim overview of the Yemen today:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35160532

[CrowBat]

That map is largely wrong; indeed considering what one can read here - Wikileaks, The Saudi Cables, Buying Silence: How the Saudi Foreign Ministry controls Arab media - probably intentionally misinforming too.

A much better one can be downloaded here: http://i0.wp.com/archicivilians.com/...-Map-Nov15.png

It's from back in November, but most of details are still valid, with following exceptions:
- contrary to what is shown on that map, Taiz remains besieged by Hothis and Yemeni Army;

- latest Houthi/YA offensive brought them back much closer to Marib again; but foremost

- the Saudis have sabotaged the UN sponsored cease-fire by ordering that 'Yemen National Army' (a Saudi&Emirati-sponsored mercenary army of about 20,000) to launch an all-out attack from within Saudi Arabia into Jawf and Hajjah provinces, in northern Yemen, on 17 December.

Further to this, the Saudi-led intergalactic coalition never ceased flying air strikes: even as negotiations between Houthis and Hadi in Switzerland began, on 17 December, they flew over 300 air strikes over Yemen. So, no surprise the talks collapsed, i.e. were 'postponed to January'...

Anyway, the war re-intensified ever since (thanks certainly to USA and UK replenishing Saudi stocks of PGMs), with Saudi-led coalition flying over 1,900 air strikes in the last six days. Saudis are even claiming they have launched an airborne assault on Nihm, about 40km north of Sana'a, on 20 December.

Fierce fighting with hundreds of casualties on both sides is reported ever since (that is: Arab and Western media are NOT reporting about most of this, for reasons cited above).

Houthis are shooting back - primarily with help of SS-21 and Qahir-1 ballistic missiles (the latter are SA-2s deployed as ballistic missiles). About two dozens of these have been fired the last seven days, primarily targeting major coalition bases near Bab al-Mandeb and Marib, but also various targets inside Saudi Arabia. Saudis claimed to have shot down at least six by their PAC-3s.

What is also not properly shown on most of available maps of Yemen is the extension of AQAP's control over de-facto all of central southern Yemen. Namely, the area from Ataq in south-west up to Saudi border in the north, and from Thamud in north-east to Qusay'ir in south-east, is completely under AQAP control: 'loyalists' (to Hadi) have no say there.

Indeed, even parts of the coast of Gulf of Aden from Aden to Zinjibar are controlled by AQAP - and absolutely nobody is doing anything against this.

Bottom line: considering spread of the Daesh in eastern Yemen, the country is not broken into two, but into four.

[Azor]

According to "World Conflict Films" a Saudi PAC-2 intercepted a Houthi Scud...any truth here?

(Added by Moderator the link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p70xfVFKXyg )

[CrowBat]

One can't really say with anything with something like 100% guarantee about this conflict, then both... nah: ALL sides involved are meanwhile lying so much.

Anyway: yes, the Iranians claim that Houthis and YA units still loyal to them (that would make the latter one of three brigades of the Missile Force), have hit RSNG base in Najran.

...and Saudis claim to have intercepted that missile, and then found the TEL and that fired the missile and killed it too.

But then, that's meanwhile a kind of 'standard' claim by both sides: this must've been something like 40th (claimed) interceptions so far, and if - then usually this is done by Saudi PAC-3s. Only thing they change in their releases is the target.

BTW, note that Iranians claim the 'Houthis' have 'sunk nine Saudi warships' too. Now, it does seem that the YA's missile force has got a few Iranian-made and truck-mounted C.802s, no doubt about this. But, the 'video-evidence' they're showing for latest such attack is a video of a USN training shot...

[Azor]

There seems to be little information detailing actual forces on the ground, casualties, or who's winning...

Care to update CB?

[CrowBat]

Well, 'on the ground', not much changed since my 'write-up' posted above. From west towards east (i.e. counter-clock-wise), the situation is something like this:

- Egyptian, Emirati and Saudi warships are not as active along the Red Sea coast as they used to be: guess, at least 1-2 of C.802s fired by YA's Missile Force found its target... question is: which one of 9 fired so far...?

- A mix of Bahraini, Emirati (read: Australian and Colombian), YNA troops (YNA stands for that Emirati/Saudi-sponsored 'army' of pro-Hadi Yemenis, but also Somali mercenaries), plus Sudanese, are trying to punch through the Houthi/YA siege of Taiz since about 2-3 weeks. Without much success. Houthis/YA are occassionally rocketing Camp al-Amiri, outside Zobab (about 40km north of Bab al-Mandeb) with SS-21s and Qaseb-1 (SA-2s used in ground-to-ground mode); most fierce attack took place on 21 December, when at least three ballistic missiles should've hit the area; Houthis claimed 300 KIA, Saudis and Emiratis deny any kind of hits or losses.

- In the centre, not much changed all the way from Ibb, via Dhamar to Marib; that is, one of YA's Presidential Guard brigades counterattacked in direction of Marib few days ago and claimed to have captured a dominant peak there. Houthis/YA are occassionally rocketing al-Anad AB with SS-21s and Qaseb-1s.

- In the northern central Yemen, not much changed either: the much-announced Emirati-supported YNA advance on Sana'a is stalled since months; Houthis/YA are occassionally rocketing Marib and the nearby Safir airfield with SS-21s and Qaseb-1 (SA-2s used in ground-to-ground mode).

- Further north, this 'blitz' of the YNA supported by Saudi SFs appears to have stalled after reaching Nihm. There are no reports from this area since days, and that's certainly no 'good news' - for Saudis.

Some statistics as provided by Yemen Post:
- While the UN and MSM are babbling about 'more than 6,000 killed' since 25 March, authorities in Sana'a alone have issued 7,235 death certificates for CIVILIANs in that city - and this is including 1,820 children. Another 2,045 death certificates for civilians were issued in Taiz. About 36,450 civilians reported as injured in 'northern' Yemen so far. Statistics for southern Yemen (especially Aden and surrounding areas), is not available.

- Saudi-led intergalactic coalition should've flown about 90,000 combat sorties so far, and destroyed 72,925 homes, 62 hospitals, 140 schools, 17 major food warehouses, 37 bridges, and 35 historcially important sites (including about a dozen of UNESCO World Herritage sites) by 20 December...

...gauging from where Saudis and most of their allies are originating, no surprise: one can't expect from people that de-facto emerged out of the desert to have respect for something like some 4,000-years old 'buildings'...

...though, one should be not surprised if Oblabla's idiotic decision to support this adventure is facing ever more backlash, and the image of the USA in this part of the world is at lowest point ever since the USA are present in the Middle East:

HRW: U.S.-Backed Strikes in Yemen Appear to Violate International Law

U.N. blames Saudi coalition for most attacks on Yemen civilians

[davidbfpo]

The article's full title is: Life under siege: inside Taiz, the Yemeni city being slowly strangled; In Yemen’s second most populated city, a Houthi blockade has brought residents previously barely subsisting to the brink of catastrophe:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...z-yemen-houthi

The Houthis, meanwhile, have laid their own siege: on Taiz. Since early April, when “the resistance” – an alliance of local forces dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood – fought off the Houthis’ attempt to control the city...Access is only allowed through a single checkpoint, dubbed the Rafah crossing by the residents after its more famous namesake on the Egypt-Gaza border. Houthi militia search – and confiscate – medicine, cooking gas, cigarettes, bottled water or anything more than a small shopping bag of food.

[CrowBat]

What the report does not say is that crucial for resistance of 'Islah Party and allies' in Taiz is one of AQAP gangs (not to talk about half the city being controlled by Houthis and allies).

But of course, since Islah/MBs (considered 'terrorists' even by Saudis until few months ago), and AQAP are fighting Houthis, they're now 'allies'...

[CrowBat]

Seems that an F-16C of the Royal Bahraini Air Force was hit by a MANPAD over northern Yemen, yesterday. The aircraft crashed while attempting to reach KKAB in KSA, pilot ejected safely:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b48_1451494048

Photos of wreckage: https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/st...41560138547200

[davidbfpo]

Thankyou to all who post here, as it is unlikely another will post this thread I shall close now before I go out to party. Minus fireworks!

To the others who post here thank you, anyone who follows this thread will have learnt a lot - even if there is rarely disagreement.