Syria in 2017 (April-December)

[OUTLAW 09]

New @bellingcat article with fully updated infographics for all factions in the #Syria-n Civil War:

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...ian-civil-war/

[OUTLAW 09]

From yesterday....

Daraa: #Assad barrel bombs killed 10+ civilians and wounded dozens in #Daraa City today. Most victims are women and children.

Daraa: Al-Bunian Al-Marsous op. room launches retaliatory strikes vs Regime positions with artillery for civilians killed in Regime raids.

Hama Battle: many pro-Assad killed past days were from Regime strongholds (S. #Ghab, #Homs, #Latakia and #Tartus prov.).

N. #Hama: barrel bomb dropped by a #SyAF helicopter over #Lataminah, smashing building.

Syria: refugee camp for ppl from Al-Waer (#Homs) set up on Turkish border in W. #Jarablus CS. 300+ tents on 5th April, now 3 times bigger.

At least 7 Syrian @SyriaCivilDefe members were killed when pro-regime Russian jets bombed their HQ in Kafrzaita, rural Hama today.

[Azor]

Ankara was - for years - negotiating with the PKK

And vice versa. It takes two to tango, no?

…while at the same time calling for the USA and others of its Western allies to help it solve the situation in Syria. For years. In 2011, in 2012, in 2013, in 2014 etc.

And? If the narcotics-related conflict in Mexico destroyed the Mexican state and the violence sent millions fleeing into the United States, would Turkey lend a helping hand?

The United States is also being called upon to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian War, the ongoing wars in the D.R. Congo and Burundi, the transnational wars involving Boko Haram, the civil war in Myanmar, the unresolved Korean conflict, etc.

The West refused, and - and against any logic - continued to ignore the situation in Syria even when millions of Syrians poured over the border into Turkey, an then continued pushing further west and north, putting the Turkish economy under immense strain.

They poured into Lebanon and Jordan as well. Turkey has been the single largest provider of aid (at 47% of total), but Turkey’s allies have pitched in, with the United States being the second-largest donor at 27%.

And when this was not enough, the West ignored the Russians exporting at least 25.000 of their Wahhabists to Syria, where these joined the Daesh and Nusra - both of which came into being foremost thanks to the Assad regime.

You inflated the number of Russian citizens fighting for rebel groups in Syria by an order of magnitude, and did they all cross through Iran and Iraq, or take the direct route through Turkey? Yes, Assad sparked the war and yes, neither Daesh nor Nusra would have been possible without the lawless vacuum that the war created. However, Ankara allowed its southern border to be a sieve for foreign volunteers to join the FSA, Daesh and Nusra, because these were clashing with the YPG.

And when that was not enough, the West - but the USA in particular - started acting as if Assad regime is entirely irrelevant, as if there is no popular uprising nor 'civil war' in Syria, as if there is no Iranian military intervention in Syria, and as if Turkey should neither have its own national interests inside Turkey, nor for its neighbourhood.

No, the West simply had no appetite for regime change and a major ground war. Prior to the 2013 arrangement with Russia, Assad’s deterrent complicated the situation as it was suggested that some 75,000 ground troops would be required to secure his chemical weapons.

As for Iran’s intervention, Washington couldn’t make war on Iran in Syria on the one hand, and arrive at a deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program on the other. Obama clearly traded involvement in Ukraine and Syria for the JCPOA.

And when that was not enough, the US military - violating US laws - entered cooperation with the PKK, while using bases inside Turkey.

No, the cooperation began with the PYD. Despite the PKK-PYD ties, the YPG is not fighting in Turkey, and I have seen no evidence of a major flow of Turkish Kurdish volunteers to the YPG or conversely, flows of Syrian Kurdish volunteers to the PKK.

And when that was not enough, the Turks were told to shut up and tolerate the PKK, to shut up and tolerate 4 millions of Syrian refugees inside Turkey - and then also accused of cooperation with Nusra and Daesh, and this despite perfect clarity that Erdogan and his AKP are on the list of enemies of these two (visible also through the fact that the elements of Turkish society that do cooperate with the HTS, for example, stand in opposition to the AKP).

When were the Turks told to tolerate the PKK? I saw Turkish armor roll into southeastern cities weapons free and kill at least as many Kurdish civilians as PKK fighters, with little to no pressure from the West. If the Sultan and his Muslim Brotherhood are so high on the list of Daesh’s and Nusra’s target lists, then why did the Sultan place them below the YPG on his own list? Ankara was accused of collaboration with Daesh by Russia, a claim that was cried shrilly after the Su-24 was barbequed.

Of course, the West could have responded by highlighting Assad’s reliance upon commodities from Daesh-controlled parts of Syria, as the “Syrian Express” cannot keep the lights on in Damascus on its own, but then the Western publics would bay for intervention and how could the West then avoid regime change and conflict with Iran?

Supporting the YPG is dangerous for Moscow and Teheran as well, as Moscow wants to prize Turkey from NATO and has its own ethnic problems, and Iran has a chunk of “Kurdistan” as well. Few seem to be thinking this thing through.

No, it is not. The blame for genocide of Armenians is on Turkey and Turks, no doubt about this. And, sooner or later, they'll accept their responsibility.

Yeah right. I cannot claim to know many Turks, but I have yet to meet one that believes that there was a genocide.

It's just a piss-poor excuse, misused for demonizing Turkey and completely ignoring Turkish interests. An act that's ruining relations between the West and that country for decades in advance. Now tell me, please: in whose interest is that?

Should I care? As far as I am concerned, both Russia and Turkey should be walled off.

sigh... Do I really have to waste even more time with discussing that topic further in-depth, too...? Get yourself at least 'Arabs and Israelis for Dummies', and read: everything is nicely based on documentation.

Well, when you can prove a Jewish genocide of Arabs, perhaps I’ll entertain this more. I went through my pro-Palestinian phase years ago.

'Aborigines' - in the USA...? Well, thanks for a reminder, but I didn't even try to add them to the equation.

I used aboriginal in lieu of “Indian” or “American Indian”, which are inaccurate terms. Would you prefer “native” or “indigenous”? “Aborigine” is something else entirely. Again, no genocide happened. Everyone wants to have their own Holocaust it seems whilst denying the real one that took place.

And you were wrong with thinking that way. My soft spot is humanity and freedom, and opposition to any kind of oppression. It just so happens that some of Sunni Arabs are between plenty of other people who are oppressed. But then, that's something you don't think about, and thus can't understand me.

Alright. So if the United States has one bullet for humanitarian intervention, where does it use it? D.R. Congo and Burundi or Iraq and Syria?

Wrong. Their governments have such problems, because both of them need chauvinists to keep themselves in power.

In my experience, the Turks are more indoctrinated by their government than the Russians, and this includes the Turks that are secular nationalists as well. If there is one thing that Turks agree on, it is that there were no genocides and that there is an anti-Turkish conspiracy.

...What's wrong with that?

Because the West wants to specifically defeat Daesh and otherwise stay out of the war. I see leaving Assad in place and defeating Sunni Arab supremacism as mutually exclusive objectives. But I’m not on the NSC.

Are you really that poor at 'connecting dots' as to fail to understand that the Daesh could've been easily prevented by supporting the FSyA and removing Assad on time?

The problem is far too complex to make that assumption. Again, a nuclear-armed Iran was considered a worse threat than Daesh and still is.

...which wold change absolutely nothing. But then, it's meanwhile typical for you - yes, this time: 'for you' - to be unable to think beyond, 'replacing one dictator of the minority through another dictator from the same minority'.

I said “rump state”. An Alawi can never rule over the Sunni Arab majority in Syria again. However, neither will the Alawis accept possible tyranny of the majority. Another Alawi leader could enact a realarmistice so that the FSA can concentrate on Daesh and consolidate its control over Sunni Arab Syria. Of course, Russia may be content with that but Iran won’t be.

A weak and federalized state along the lines of Lebanon seems to be the answer for both Iraq and Syria, but are the Alawis and Shias disabused of the notion that they can win it all?

To paraphrase Gen. Sherman, the Iranians need to be made absolutely sick of war.

[Azor]

What 'regular forces', PLEASE? Azor, would you like to tell me, you've really got not even that much clue about the Syrian civil war as to know a) it's not the Iranian military, but the IRGC - indeed: IRGC-QF - that's responsible for such Iranian operations like the one in Syria, b) this IRGC-QF deployed its first two 'regular' (IRGC) brigades to Syria already in 2012, and c) that Iran is running a full-blown military intervention in Syria at least since early 2013? If so, sorry, but we need not discussing this topic until you inform yourself properly.

I never said that Iran’s regular forces were involved. I am aware that this is a Pasdaran project. However, Iran could "surge" regular forces into Syria rather than just special forces and various Shia mercenaries. Their strategic lift capabilities leave much to be desired, but they could probably cobble together some sort of ad hoc naval lift if the way through Iraq is closed off, which is a big “if”. How can Iran have a “full-blown military intervention in Syria” without the regular Iranian military? That’s an Israeli riddle for you.

Suffice it to say, when someone constantly falls back on, “attend WestPoint” or “inform yourself”, the other party can be sure that they hit a nerve. Knowing the technical details of the SyAAF does not equate to knowing the weighing of options in the NSC or among the U.S. and its allies.

In conclusion, you seem to have trouble distinguishing between my discussion of the current state of affairs and my discussion of my own personal preferences. As both you and Outlaw are no doubt aware, risk-aversion often leads to negative effects, as was evident in American interventions in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now Syria. American foreign policy is typically successful when there is total and unlimited commitment, and often that commitment is far less “total” in the end than the grudging commitments made to supposedly “limited” initiatives.

It seems that the West wants Raqqa to fall and Daesh to be driven from the field as quickly as possible so that Operation Inherent Resolve can be wrapped up, and the Coalition can return home, repair the wear and tear on their aircraft and other equipment, and replenish their stocks of PGMs. This is about as permanent a victory as the Paris Peace Accords or "Mission Accomplished", but that is the way it is.

[Azor]

Azor.....HIGHLY worth reading as it goes to heart of what CrowBat and myself have been posting here......

Really read it.....
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...nd-propaganda/

PKK and Propaganda

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on 29 April 2017

The West’s Syria policy is beginning to unravel of its own contradictions.


AMAZINGLY NATO knows about YPG and PKK being one and the same BUT US SOF and CENTCOM does not????

Meh. This is like trying to stay out of a barroom brawl but just get a few kicks in on one of the brawlers. It doesn't work. Either you go in with some friends and a chair, or you stay out of it and sip a beer while you watch.

[Azor]

• Leaked video purports to show YPG/SDF forces in Raqqa countryside going into civilian houses looking to loot/steal, Raqqa Governorate, Syria
  
• Clashes between the Free Syrian Army and the YPG/SDF on the axis of A'zaz -Maranaz, north of Aleppo

Turkish-YPG Fighting

• Turkish artillery pounding YPG positions in Afrin with artillery
  
• Howitzers and T-122 Sakarya MLRS is reportedly pounding YPG positions in Afrin

Perhaps Washington will come to the realization that there are no angels here, except the White Helmets.

Neither the YPG nor the FSA should be fighting in Sunni Arab and Kurdish areas, respectively, and any operations in mixed areas should come under strict joint oversight to prevent cleansing.

[OUTLAW 09]

Meh. This is like trying to stay out of a barroom brawl but just get a few kicks in on one of the brawlers. It doesn't work. Either you go in with some friends and a chair, or you stay out of it and sip a beer while you watch.

BUT when you pick the wrong bar...the wrong friends...have no chair and no beer...will you then realize you might in one heck of a serious problem....THIS is where SOF and CENTCOM are now and yet I do not think they even realize it...

AND that is sad....

Maybe if they read SWC/SWJ more often????

[CrowBat]

Everyone wants to have their own Holocaust it seems whilst denying the real one that took place.

Should this be an attempt to explain I'm denying the Holocaust (of Jews, Roma and few other ethnic and religious, as well as political groups, and by German Nazis and allies in 1930s and 1940s), our exchange is herewith over.

[CrowBat]

Another wiki-leaks affair: Somebody stole the super-modern, ultra-secret digital map of Syria, used by the CENTCOM for its operations there - and posted it on the internet....

[CrowBat]

This is a post especially for all the fans of Brigadier-General Sohail 'Botox' Hussein. While reading it, please turn on this music (right-click, please): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGuNsiSZ9RI

One of visitors of the ACIG forum has recently drawn my attention at an increasing number of photographs showing Assadist Brig-Gen Sohail 'Botox' Hussein...'escorted'... by young, or at least cleanly shaven, 'pretty'... well, boys.

I've seen 1-2 of these too, but didn't pay attention early on, and thus wasn't aware how many are meanwhile circulating the internet. Nor, actually, that a few of the boys in question are around him all the time - or that Hussein is clearly showing his predilection for such...ahem... 'visitors'. That aside, my standpoint is that everybody is free to do whatever he/she likes to do in his off time. So, why care?

But then, our visitor made me aware of the 'practice' of 'powerful men' having 'sex with pretty boys' being quite widespread in the Middle East, and not even considered as 'homosexuality'. Apparently, even some very religious men do it, whether in Syria, or Iran, even in Afghanistan (apparently, even some US servicemen reported receiving sexual advances while serving in Iraq and Afghanistan).

Anyway... Sohail 'Botox' Hassan seems to have an entire group - i.e. a 'harem' - of 'pretty boys' around him nearly all of time. And, since the internet is meanwhile flooded with... loving images of him in their company... well: why not post a collection of at least a few of them?

Here something like 'Best of Botox Hussein and his Harem'... with love,

(...uuuu-uuuuu-uuuu....)

[Azor]

Should this be an attempt to explain I'm denying the Holocaust (of Jews, Roma and few other ethnic and religious, as well as political groups, and by German Nazis and allies in 1930s and 1940s), our exchange is herewith over.

You forgot to include Polish and Soviet civilians and prisoners of war.

Often you will find that the same people claiming a "Holocaust" of women (witch trials), Arabs (by Europeans and later Israelis), and Native Americans (by Europeans, Americans and Canadians), seem to want to refute some or all aspects of the Shoah.

For instance, Russians have inflated the number of Soviet civilians and POWs who were mass murdered by the Germans, by including non-Soviet victims as well as those of Stalin's brutality, which continued unabated throughout the war. Russians have then taken the Soviet total and claimed it as a Russian total. Yet Holocaust denial and anti-Semitism abounds in Russia, and no effort is made to recognize the greater suffering of Belorussians, Ukrainians and Kazakhs, or Russia's own genocides against non-Russians.

There is a race among the groups of the living to make claims upon the dead - real and imagined - whilst denying other groups their own claims.

Do you truly think that I am accusing you of Holocaust denial? Or are you looking for an excuse to disengage?

What I am accusing you of is playing fast and loose with the history of mass murder, purely to deflect from a series of genocides perpetrated by the Turks in the 20th Century, which continue in the form of low-level war.

[Azor]

Anyway...Sohail 'Botox' Hassan seems to have an entire group - i.e. a 'harem' - of 'pretty boys' around him nearly all of time. And, since the internet is meanwhile flooded with...loving images of him in their company... well: why not post a collection of at least a few of them?

Nothing wrong with that. You may also recall the quirks of such previous warlords as General Butt Naked in Liberia. These characters would be laughable if they weren't so lethal...

As homosexuality no longer exists in Iran according to its former president and various crane operators, perhaps it still does in Syria?

[OUTLAW 09]

Nothing wrong with that. You may also recall the quirks of such previous warlords as General Butt Naked in Liberia. These characters would be laughable if they weren't so lethal...

As homosexuality no longer exists in Iran according to its former president and various crane operators, perhaps it still does in Syria?

Definitively alive and well in AFG and Iraq...

[OUTLAW 09]

Carpet bombings by #Kremlin regime war planes on #Hama towns today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZpp...ture=youtu.be#

At Merkel presser, #Putin called it "ceasefire".

Putin says he doesn't interfere in domestic affairs of other countries.

AND as Syria and eastern Ukraine continue to be in a deep war...we have the American FP bogged down in a debate on the "Civil war"?????

TRUMP (yesterday): I would've used my dealmaking skills to prevent the Civil War

TRUMP (today): I can't get anything through a GOP Congress

YET after his "red line" TLAM strike..he has done nothing more in Syria....

Russian MoD denies @hrw report that Soviet-era bombs were used in chemical attack, says not 1 Western inspector has visited site in Syria.

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria: after these advances Western/Jordanian backed rebels have entered #DeirEzzor governorate from the SW, controlling most of the desert

Syria: Maghaweer al-Thawra (#FSA) rebels have captured Jabal Ghrab, wadi Swab, Muayzilah & the T3 Pumping station in the Syrian desert

Hama : Regime barrel bomb massacre in #Latmenah as a mother, father and four children were killed by a helicopter.

[OUTLAW 09]

Afrin today.

#Kremlin regime soldiers patrolling with #PKK-affiliated fighters.

Putin's middle finger to Erdogan, one day before the visit.

[Azor]

After Gorbachev stopped the military cooperation with Syria, and stopped all the arms deliveries too, in 1988, Damascus stopped paying all debts to the USSR, rumoured at between US15 and 17 billion. From 1988 until today, Syrians didn't pay a single cent of that debt back to Moscow.

According to SIPRI, Russia provided more than 50% of the value of the arms transferred to Syria from 1992 to 2013, with data being scarce for 2014 and unavailable for 2015-2015. Russia was the single largest transferor in 2002-2003 and 2009-2013, or for one third of that period. Has the Syrian account been up to date? Certainly not. But such is the cost of doing business in the arms trade, and neither Yeltsin nor Putin have had problems providing corporate welfare to Russian defense contractors.

With regard to Tartus, it is effectively a glorified dock. Russia has been unable to even thinly spread its assets across its existing bases, let alone take advantage of naval facilities in Syria and Vietnam. Recently, the Russian Navy had to cannibalize its Black Sea Fleet to reinforce its Baltic Fleet, and deploying the naval group off of Syria has been a strain.

As stated previously, I referred to “client” in a very loose sense given that Russia’s international relationships are far fewer and far weaker than those of the United States, and I won’t belabor the point further.

How often have the Russians violated the airspace of any NATO country with their IFF-transponders off since that ROE was introduced, back in 2015? How do you provide proofs for 0?

What new ROEs have been introduced? Thus far Russia has offered to turn transponders on if all NATO aircraft (i.e. spy planes) will do likewise.

In 2017, there were at least six incidents of Russian military aircraft flying in international Baltic airspace with their transponders off.

In 2016, there were 110 intercepts in the Baltic area, including at least four where Russian transponders were off, and six violations of Estonian airspace. In addition, there were ten violations of Bulgarian airspace and at least one unsafe interception by Russia over the Black Sea. NATO intercepts were lower for 2016 than 2014 and 2015, but are still far above 2013 levels.

…it's simply silly to insinuate whatever kind of 'what ifs' about a country with the GNP of Spain and its ability to challenge the USA in an open military confrontation. Even more so in an area 2000 kilometres away from its borders, where it has NO bases, nor even any true allies.

Well, Russia may be “Upper Volta”, but it still has “rockets”, does it not? This country has directly challenged American interests since 2008, and has invaded and partitioned two prospective American allies.

Regardless, you continue to have difficulty reading what I actually write. I never said that Russia would attack American or Coalition forces in Syria. What I did assert was that Russia probably would ignore a no-fly zone, no-drive zone and/or a blockade, and dare the Coalition to fire on it first. Despite lacking true allies, Russia would certainly have allies of convenience in Damascus and Teheran.

Consider the Berlin Airlift, when American and British forces were faced with overwhelming Soviet quantitative and qualitative superiority, frayed lines of communication and only perhaps two dozen atomic bombs were available to the U.S. once the B-29s had been deployed. The Allies violated the blockade peacefully, adhered to pre-blockade arrangements as much as possible, and were prepared to lose men and machines to Soviet aggression and the weather, if need be. The airlift was a logistical feat for the British and French, and humiliated the far stronger Soviet Union.

After the fall of Qaddafi and the refusal of Obama to treat him as an equal partner, Putin has been determined to humiliate the U.S. despite Russia’s weaknesses. Were the U.S. to establish a blockade or NFZ/NDZ, I believe that Putin would move heaven and earth to violate it and risk the lives of Russian sailors and pilots doing so.

Assad's air force is grounded, and he realizes he's left without troops to continue the war - which is why Iran launched its military intervention in Syria, in 2012. So what?

And? It all boils down to whether the U.S. would fire upon Russian and Iranian blockade runners.

Tehran concluded this already in 2011. Moscow didn't care until July 2015. As of 2013, neither was in a position to do anything about this.

Of course Moscow cared. It just had bigger fish to fry. Assuming that the blockade did not include airstrikes on Assad’s ground forces, it would have taken the rebels some time to defeat Assad, during which Moscow and Teheran could have tried to run men and materiel through the blockade, by air, sea and overland through Iraq, which was not exactly an American ally in 2013.

…didn't happen (at least not in 2013; otherwise it would've been reported). While, the Pentagon and various of NATO allies stopped something like 15 minutes before from launching a military operation against Assad.

If Obama had launched TLAMs or established a blockade in 2013, Assad would have been screaming for help.

…didn't happen (at least not in 2013). And was also not intended by the Russians.

Right. We are talking about your alternate timeline where Obama launches TLAMs and establishes a blockade.

This happened only in 2015 and then for reasons I explained above: Putler went to Syria because he was sure Oblabla wouldn't. Indeed, because the Iranians told him that Oblabla promised Tehran he wouldn't. And Iranians could do so because Oblabla told them so - in exchange for his silly nuclear deal, signed... drums... in July 2015.

The Iranians would have had this prerequisite long before the JCPOA was drafted, and would have signaled Obama if he had intervened in Syria in 2013.

And then, all provided you can still follow, explain me please: who can, say, prevent Turkey from closing its airspace for all Russian aircraft if it likes to do so? (And keep in mind: Turkey did close its airspace for Russian military aircraft, ever since September 2015). Who can prevent Jordan from closing its airspace for all Iranian aircraft? And: who was in control of the Iraqi government as of 2013?

Russia could take an alternate air route with refueling, rely upon sealift or transit via Iraq, which was led by Maliki, who would probably have allowed it. After all, Iraq currently hosts Iranian special forces and has sent Iranian-led Iraqi Shia militias to Syria.

[CrowBat]

You forgot to include...

That was no invitation for more polemic, but a very serious, 'closed' question: i.e. I expect a clear yes or no reply.

[CrowBat]

Russian MoD denies @hrw report that Soviet-era bombs were used in chemical attack, says not 1 Western inspector has visited site in Syria.

...as if one needs any 'Western inspector' - to get killed by old Russian bombs: there are enough photos and videos of what are VKS fighter-bombers dropping around.

Except of ODAB-500s, the 'newest' stuff are FAB-500M-62s: 62 stands for the year of their design... (1962).

BTW, the VKS now has at least one A-50 SRDLO (Russian for AWACS) in Syria. The source is 'murky', to put it mildly, but the photo appears to be genuine: it was taken near Hmemmem AB, on 29 April.

This, in turn, is 'little surprising', considering number of sorties flown every day is indicating that the Russians meanwhile have about 50 combat aircraft - mind: combat aircraft, i.e. fighter-bombers alone - deployed at Hmemmem.

[Azor]

That was no invitation for more polemic, but a very serious, 'closed' question: i.e. I expect a clear yes or no reply.

No