Syria in 2018-2019

[davidbfpo]

I missed this article in May 2016, so yes it is historical. Just why the four were in Syrian custody in 2011, as the civil war began, is not 100% clear (possibly two were rendered there by the USA). What is clear is their release had an impact:

If President Assad’s Sednaya amnesty was indeed a considered plan to subvert the revolution, it worked.

Link:http://s.telegraph.co.uk/graphics/pr...mic/index.html

[AdamG]

As images of sick or dying children flooded global media all week, the U.S. guided-missile destroyer USS Winston Churchill churned toward the Mediterranean to join a flotilla of allied warships, including another U.S. destroyer, the USS Donald Cook.

It was a ruse.

While both vessels carry as many as 90 Tomahawk missiles -- the main weapon used in the Friday evening strike on Syria -- neither ship in the end fired a shot. Instead, according to a person familiar with White House war planning, they were part of a plan to distract Russia and its Syrian ally from an assault Assad’s government could do little to defend itself against.

As the president addressed the nation at 9 p.m. Washington time, on Friday, a barrage of 105 U.S., U.K. and French missiles converged on Syria. They came from the Red Sea, the Arabian Gulf and the Mediterranean, homing in from three directions to overwhelm whatever missile defenses Assad’s regime might deploy. Russia’s more advanced air defense system didn’t engage the allied weapons.

According to the Pentagon, the allied weaponry included 19 new “Extended-Range” stealthy Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Attack Munitions launched by two B-1B bombers based out of Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar, and six Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from the Virginia-class USS John Warner submarine. The bomber-launched missiles, built by Lockheed Martin Corp., had never been used in combat.

The cruiser USS Monterey fired 30 Tomahawks and the destroyer USS Laboon fired seven Tomahawks from the Red Sea. The destroyer USS Higgins fired 23 Tomahawks from the North Arabian Gulf, according to McKenzie.

The weapons also included French SCALP-EG cruise missiles and British Storm Shadow standoff missiles launched by Tornado and Typhoon jets. Nine SCALP missiles were fired at what the Pentagon said was a chemical weapons storage complex at Hims-Shinshar, along with two SCALPS, nine Tomahawks and eight Storm Shadows.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...attacked-syria

[Azor]

The strikes themselves: https://theaviationist.com/2018/04/1...ikes-on-syria/

Claims about successful strikes/missiles lost: https://theaviationist.com/2018/04/1...ing-to-the-us/

[davidbfpo]

A scholarly overview of Russia's place in Syria and nearby - presumably written before the latest allied air attack, as it is not mentioned.
Link:https://defenceindepth.co/2018/04/20...mediterranean/

[davidbfpo]

Professor Paul Rogers overview after the three allies action:

The 14 April missile strike by the United States, France and the UK on three Syrian chemical weapons facilities aimed to enforce a much-scuffed red line on use of chemical weapons. But it was achieved in breach of international law and accompanied by a coordinated political message that the Western allies had no wider intention to oppose the Assad regime or its Russian and Iranian allies in Syria. As such, Trump is already advocating new actors like Egypt take the place of US troops in northeast Syria. While little has changed for Assad, Russia, or Iran in Syria, Israel and Turkey are increasingly dissatisfied with the West’s lack of apparent post-Islamic State strategy there and will act accordingly,

Interesting comments on the French strike:

. In logistic terms the French component was far more complex and wide-ranging, even though it only involved eleven cruise missiles.

Link:http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.u...d_consequences

[AdamG]

IDF claims to have clobbered Iranian missiles on the ground.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-...tack-missiles/

[AdamG]

ISIS might be an Army of drooling 7th century Troglodytes, but you do have to hand it to them in the Creativity Department.

ISIS butchers have carried out one of the most chilling executions in the terror group's history - by turning a captive into an airborne bomb. Images released on its propaganda channels show a captured and bound Syrian soldier being dropped head-first from a height and exploding on impact with the ground. His body is bound tightly with cords and straightened with long, wooden planks - seemingly to keep him upright and aerodynamic. He was then fitted with a helmet filled with explosives, complete with an impact fuse on the top to trigger the device when his head hit the ground. The man was then thrown off a building in ISIS-controlled territory in the Yarmouk area of Syria, close to the capital Damascus.

Yes, there are photos.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/05...ssing-him.html

[AdamG]

Reuters appears to have only this headline and no supporting text

ISRAEL SAYS SPOTS IRANIAN MILITARY MOVEMENT IN SYRIA, ORDERS READYING OF BOMB SHELTERS ON ISRAELI-HELD GOLAN
https://af.reuters.com/article/commo...1ALTJ7N1PG01N2

BEIRUT — Syrian state-run media said Israel struck a military outpost near the capital Damascus on Tuesday, saying its air defenses intercepted and destroyed two of the incoming missiles. The reported attack came an hour after President Donald Trump announced he was withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, calling Tehran a main exporter of terrorism in the region.
The official news agency SANA said without elaborating that the attack occurred in the countryside in Kisweh, just south of Damascus, an area known to have numerous Syrian army bases. Syrian TV earlier reported large explosions in the area.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the missiles targeted depots and rocket launchers that likely belonged to Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards in Kisweh, killing nine people. The group, which closely monitors the Syria war through a network of activists on the ground, said it was not clear whether those killed were Revolutionary Guard members or members of a pro-Iranian militia. The report could not be independently confirmed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...2ce_story.html

[davidbfpo]

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-44271676

[davidbfpo]

An article from Open Democracy that starts to explain why Assad used / uses chemical weapons and offers an explanation of a civil war where nothing is simple. For once the few comments and the author's response are worth reading too.

I'd not spotted this:

In reality, there have been hundreds of chemical attacks in Syria reported since 2012 - including up to 85 merely in the past year since Trump’s ‘airfield strike’ of April 2017 (according to Human Rights Watch) - most of which only garner marginal media coverage and provoke little media and online commotion.

Or how territory changes "hands":

In reality, the military support provided by the US administration to the Assad regime, whether by allowing the influx of tens of thousands of fighters from the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) backed by the Coalition in Iraq, or by returning former ISIS territories exclusively either to factions collaborating with the regime (the SDF) or the regime itself, has been infinitely more valuable.
(Later) Indeed, one of the biggest ironies of the conflict is that in the fight against ISIS, there have been more recorded occasions of the US-led Coalition supporting pro-regime militias than there have been of active anti-Assad groups.

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-africa-west-asia/omar-sabbour/why-would-assad-do-it-debunking-abstract-theories-surrounding-sy?

[davidbfpo]

Border defences, whether in an insurgency - Algeria and Rhodesia come to mind - or to control border crossing are often controversial:

In related news, Turkey has completed construction of a 764-km (475 mile) concrete wall along its border with Syria. Ankara launched the construction project in 2015 for a barrier along 826 of the 911 kms of the border. The modular walls consisted of seven-ton mobile blocks, two meters wide and three meters high, topped with a one-meter height of razor wire. A furhter electronic layer has close-up surveillance systems, thermal cameras, land surveillance radar, remote-controlled weapons systems, command-and-control centers, line-length imaging systems and seismic and acoustic sensors. There is also laser destructive fiber-optic detection, surveillance radar for drone detection, jammers, and sensor-triggered short distance lighting systems.

Link:http://eaworldview.com/2018/06/syria...investigation/

[Azor]

See here: https://twitter.com/intellipus/statu...32108691087360

Syrian SAM bases in 2018. CrowBat - thoughts?

[davidbfpo]

From an Israeli think tank:

The Syrian army is completing its takeover of the Syrian Golan Heights while establishing its presence along the border with Israel. The only remaining area of resistance is the ISIS-controlled Yarmouk Basin, which is under attack by the Syrian army, including artillery shelling and airstrikes.....Most of the areas under the control of the rebel organizations fell into the hands of the Syrian army and the forces supporting it, without significant fighting but rather through surrender agreements (so-called reconciliation agreements) involving the Russians. The most prominent area where a surrender agreement was reached was the area of Quneitra. The agreement that was reached included a ceasefire, the return of the Syrian army to all the positions that had been under its control before the civil war, and the evacuation of rebel operatives who did not want to join the agreement to the Idlib region in northern Syria. As a result, Syrian soldiers entered the towns and villages in the area without any fighting, including the village of Al-Rafid, near the border with Israel.

Link:https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en...ly-19-25-2018/

There is more on the link on other developments.

There is a small thread on the Golan Heights, for reference:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...shpoint-coming

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to a "lurker" for the pointer to this. At times a painful read this piece in 'The Atlantic' offers an explanation why Assad appears today to have won. Being ruthless was one factor and with help from those who simply ignored the critics (akin to Sri Lanka may be).

The last two passages:

From the outside, Assad’s victory looks like no victory at all. He is king of the ashes, overlooking a distraught country from his presidential palace. He has yet to conquer vast swathes of territory and faces ongoing terrorist attacks from jihadist sleeper cells. He must rebuild a heavily indebted, struggling economy, with a shrunken population shorn of much of its technical and intellectual skill. He is reliant on two powerful foreign allies, Russia and Iran, who have infiltrated state institutions and the economy and wield huge influence. He must placate the millions of loyal Syrians who have sacrificed their blood and treasure to keep him on his throne.Yet to Assad and his inner circle, who have been playing a long game, it must seem these problems can still be surmounted, even if it takes decades. For them, the war was about survival, and in this sense they have won. Their own cynicism and ruthlessness at home combined with decisive assistance from abroad (whether intentional or not) has allowed them to remain in power. It was brutal and inhumane but, from their perspective, it worked. That is a chilling lesson for other dictators.

Link:https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...-syria/566522/

[AdamG]

Moscow (AFP) - Russia has sent over 63,000 troops to Syria over the course of its involvement in the conflict, the Russian defence ministry said Wednesday. A total of 63,012 Russian personnel have "received combat experience" in the war-torn country, the ministry said in a video about Russia's campaign to support the Syrian regime dating back to September 2015.

This number includes 25,738 ranking officers and 434 generals as well as 4,349 artillery and rocket specialists, it said. Previously Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in December 2017 that over 48,000 military personnel had taken part in the Syrian campaign.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-sa...141424820.html

[AdamG]

Moscow (CNN)Syria antiaircraft fire downed a Russian military plane after an Israeli attack on Syrian positions, killing 15 people on board, Moscow said.

Russian state media said Syrian missiles shot the maritime patrol aircraft down amid an attack by Israeli jets in the Latakia region of northwest Syria.
Moscow blamed Israel for putting its aircraft in the line of fire and said it had only a minute's notice of the strike.
"As a result of the irresponsible actions of the Israeli military, 15 Russian servicemen were killed, which is absolutely not in keeping with the spirit of Russian-Israeli partnership," said Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, spokesperson for the Russian military, according to RIA-Novosti.
In a rare acknowledgment of its military activity in the region, Israel expressed "sorrow" for the loss of Russian life, but blamed the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/17/polit...ane/index.html

[AdamG]

ANKARA/AMMAN (Reuters) - Turkey will send more troops into Syria’s Idlib province after striking a deal with Russia that has averted a government offensive and delighted rebels who say it keeps the area out of President Bashar al-Assad’s hands.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...KCN1LY0T9?il=0

[AdamG]

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Monday that they had launched at least six ballistic missiles into eastern Syria, targeting those responsible for the recent attack on a military parade in Iran, in order to "convey a clear message to Saudi Arabia, the US and Israel," according to the Hezbollah-affiliated Al Mayadeen news channel

.
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,...361444,00.html

[davidbfpo]

An article written after President Trump's policy statement via Twitter and the author concludes:

Walking away now is a remarkable gift for Isis, whose leaders can say they saw off the Americans and their allies. Even without the withdrawal, the group would likely have held out for many more months as an organised entity, able to defend what it still had. With its most formidable foe leaving the fray, Isis may well be reborn.

Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/19/has-isis-been-defeated-in-syria-as-trump-claims

I do wonder if any of the USA's allies and partners had thought this new policy was a possibility? Not only an exit for those US forces on the ground, the likely end for air operations.

How will the Kurdish allies respond? Sadly I expect a few of them knew this would happen one day; after all their recent history shows allies suddenly exit. Will they release the reported thousands of ISIS prisoners, even kill them?

The FT reports:

The political wing of Kurdish-led militia groups backed by the US have held talks with the Syrian regime as part of efforts to protect their hold over a stretch of territory in the war-torn country. The negotiations underline the shifting dynamics in Syria’s seven-year civil war as President Bashar al-Assad reasserts control over much of the country. They also illustrate how the Kurdish militants in north-east Syria now view their future interests as being tied to the regime.

Link:https://www.ft.com/content/3012a3c2-...a-eeb7a9ce36e4

[davidbfpo]

An article by a lady academic / policy analyst (who is a Forum member too), which has had compliments on Twitter. So a couple of passages, near the start:

This has brought to the fore a confusing set of aligned and contradicting responses. It is almost as difficult to keep track of the politics of the comments and commentators as it has been to figure out where and how to stand on the war itself.

She ends with:

This analysis may feel unsatisfying, may seem to leave readers with few answers and more uncertainty regarding their correct apprehension of the current situation, and those challenges to come in the future. That is as intended. And as paradoxical as it may seem, such a state of enlightened confusion will serve the U.S. and the international community better to hedge against hubris, partisanship, or propaganda in national security policies.

Link:https://theglobepost.com/2018/12/24/syria-us-lesson/