Mumbai Attacks and their impact

[carl]

I just don't think that a similar attack would have near the success in the US. Law Enforcement capabilities aside, there are an awful lot of people like me out there bitterly clinging to our guns.
SFC W

Agreed. I found people were extremely eager to help if an officer was in a fight or somebody went missing. If we had passed the word we needed armed volunteers...the numbers would have been large.

[Adam L]

Obviously there is no pat answer as there are several variables that can impact readiness on any given day, and obviously some cities such as New York City is probably much more prepared for this type of attack than say a mid sized town elsewhere in the U.S., but it is still a question we should grapple with.

I have really been surprised by just how much firepower the NYPD have. It seems as though every time I go down to the city they have new and more powerful weapons. There are a lot of officers carrying assault rifles these days. Also, it looks as though a lot of patrolmen are wearing heavier body armor.

Adam L

[bismark17]

I am concerned about the Beslan style issue myself or hit and run attacks on malls. That would be really great for the economy at this point. Or look at what those 2 weirdos, the father and son sniper team, did on the East Coast. The IRA already started that a long time ago with urban sniping from vehicles. Coming from both an Infantry and Police background it's amazing to participate or watch force on force situations with multiple search teams in active shooter scenarios. The command and control is brutal. Without getting too specific the usual history of these events is that the active shooter doesn't want to engage with us but will usually shoot themselves once they realize we are on scene.

Terrorists are not going to do that but will want to engage. These latest guys were very well trained and aggressive. The latest account I read claimed that they took turns to change their mags so that one of them could provide support. High speed. Think of how this went and what they could have done better because they are....

I am still much more concerned about a Beslan type situation than something like Mumbai. I just don't think that a similar attack would have near the success in the US. Law Enforcement capabilities aside, there are an awful lot of people like me out there bitterly clinging to our guns. A Beslan type attack, say on a large inner city school, or schools on the other hand could be devastating, particularly if the attackers managed to start a rumor that there were other groups still out there ready to attack other schools. It is one thing to say that I will not let the terrorists scare me. I will live my life and go to work and do what I need to do regardless of the threat. It is quite another thing to send your babies into that. How many businesses would have troubles with production because terrified parents stayed home with their kids? What kind of effect would that many working parents staying home have on the economy?

SFC W

[Entropy]

The problem with a Beslan operation and why I think it's unlikely is that it won't net the instigator good press with those they are attempting to influence. Symbolism is often more important for attackers than body counts (especially so for sophisticated attackers) and in Mumbai the decision on what to target was obviously based on symbolic value rather than maximizing a death toll. The symbolism associated with attacking a school and murdering children will not play well even among many Jihadists, so I think a sophisticated crew that can plan and carry out this kind of operation are unlikely to target schools - especially after Beslan, which didn't work out too well for the Chechens.

[slapout9]

I worry more about the Mexican/US border. An attack of that nature is a real possibility at one of the border towns.

[Icebreaker]

I worry more about the Mexican/US border. An attack of that nature is a real possibility at one of the border towns.

It has happened before in 1916 at Columbus, New Mexico (see link to wikipedia article):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pancho_Villa_Expedition

General Pershing command of the expedition helped to launch him on the path to being the Commanding Officer of the American Expeditionary Force (AEF) in World War I.

[120mm]

I have really been surprised by just how much firepower the NYPD have. It seems as though every time I go down to the city they have new and more powerful weapons. There are a lot of officers carrying assault rifles these days. Also, it looks as though a lot of patrolmen are wearing heavier body armor.

Adam L

The prevalence of so-called and misnamed "assault rifles" in use by police is primarily because they're more accurate, and safer than pistols. High speed, low weight bullets tend not to overpenetrate as much as low speed, high weight bullets such as those fired by pistols.

Plus, the AR15 platform is handy, easily maintained, is easy to train on, and prior military experience police officers are familiar with the system.

It's not about the way the guns look, it's the functionality that really matters. If I had my druthers, all police officers would start out on the AR15 as their primary.

[Adam L]

The prevalence of so-called and misnamed "assault rifles" in use by police is primarily because they're more accurate, and safer than pistols. High speed, low weight bullets tend not to overpenetrate as much as low speed, high weight bullets such as those fired by pistols.

Plus, the AR15 platform is handy, easily maintained, is easy to train on, and prior military experience police officers are familiar with the system.

It's not about the way the guns look, it's the functionality that really matters. If I had my druthers, all police officers would start out on the AR15 as their primary.

I agree with you 100%. What I was commenting on was the amount of officers with select-fire rifles. This is mainly at high risk areas, but it's something I've noticed. I've also noticed that the cops make u-turns with their emergency command centers (big modified busses) on public streets at astonishing velocities (a civilian would lose his license) and in extreme close quarters (3-6 inches from car bumpers.)

Adam L

[slapout9]

I've also noticed that the cops make u-turns with their emergency command centers (big modified busses) on public streets at astonishing velocities (a civilian would lose his license) and in extreme close quarters (3-6 inches from car bumpers.)

Adam L

It's called SPS...Secret Police Stuff.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28221884/

MUMBAI, India - When the attackers arrived on the shores of Mumbai last month, they had studied satellite images of the city, were carrying handheld GPS sets and were communicating with their handlers via the Internet and satellite phone.

Many of the Indian police they encountered did not even have walkie-talkies.

The Mumbai gunmen not only overwhelmed security forces with their weaponry and willingness to die, but also with their sophisticated use of technology, security experts said.

This is an overly simplistic conclusion, the attackers were able to overwhelm the police because they conducted a "surprise" attack, and quickly exploited the inherent confusion. They could have done this without the use of cell phone to some degree. Obviously the Indian police were not properly equipped, armed, nor trained, which reflects poorly on the government, but even if they were the first couple of hours of the attack would have still been chaos.

[Ron Humphrey]

Columbine, The Snipers, Recent School and Church shootings all very simplistic compared to the Mumbai tactical operation. One definately hopes quite a bit has been done in our LE communities to recognize and adapt to the possibilities of that sort of thing here.

[Rex Brynen]

Pakistan moves troops toward Indian border

SEBASTIAN ABBOT
Associated Press
Globe and Mail, December 26, 2008 at 11:20 AM EST

ISLAMABAD — Pakistan began moving thousands of troops to the Indian border Friday, intelligence officials said, sharply raising tensions triggered by the Mumbai terror attacks.

India has blamed Pakistani-based militants for last month's siege on its financial capital, which killed 164 people and has provoked an increasingly bitter war of words between nuclear-armed neighbours that have fought three wars in 60 years.

The troops headed to the Indian border were being diverted away from tribal areas near Afghanistan, officials said, and the move was expected to frustrate the United States, which has been pushing Pakistan to step up its fight against al-Qaeda and Taliban militants near the Afghan border.

Two intelligence officials said the army's 14th Division was being redeployed to the towns of Kasur and Sialkot, close to the Indian border. They said some 20,000 troops were on the move. Earlier Friday, a security official said all troop leave had been cancelled.

[Bill Moore]

There were other scattered tidbits on various websites indicating that this situation is rapidly going from bad to worse. Pakistan allegedly arrested an Indian in the past couple of days who was tied to a terrorist attack in Pakistan. S. Asia is not the land of cooler heads. Unfortunately, it appears that the terrorists are about to achieve their strategic objective of diverting troops from the FATA to the Indian border, and they may get a bonus on top of that.

[Surferbeetle]

From todays Pakistan Daily Times

Pakistan troops move to Indian borders

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan troops were deployed on Thursday to protect vital points along the Line of Control in Kashmir and the international border with India, defence sources told Daily Times. Reports in Indian media said Pakistan moved its 10th Brigade to Lahore and ordered the 3rd Armoured Brigade to march towards Jhelum, following a heavy concentration of Indian troops on the borders. Pakistan’s 10th and 11th divisions have been put on high alert, Indian media said, and troops had been stationed in Rajouri and Poonch sectors of Kashmir. Sources in the Defence Department declined to give details of any fresh movement but did not deny reports that Pakistan was moving certain brigades towards Lahore. Indian TV channels also reported that Pakistan Air Force continued its state of high alert and started aerial surveillance of the Chashma power plant and other sensitive sites on Thursday amid fears of a ‘surgical strike’ by India. sajjad malik

From todays Spiegel

Pakistan übt sich in Drohgebärden und lässt Truppen an der Grenze zu Indien aufmarschieren. Die Regierung in Delhi wiederum bittet China und Saudi-Arabien um Vermittlung. Nun versuchen die USA, im Konflikt zwischen den Atommächten zu vermitteln.

My translation...

Pakistan is practicing threatening gestures and letting troops march to the border with India. The Government in Dehli is again asking China and Saudi-Arabia about mediation. The USA is now trying to mediate the conflict between the atomic powers as well.

And a KUNA report as a third source...

ISLAMABAD, Dec 26 (KUNA) -- Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi Friday said that China and Iran are perturbed over the current Pak-India tension and would play their role to defuse it.
The ongoing tension between the two neighboring countries would benefit only the terrorists who are hell-bent upon sabotaging the normalization process, he said while talking to news reporters in eastern Multan city.
He said he received telephone calls from his Chinese and Iranian counterparts today (Friday) and they expressed their deep concern over the Indo-Pak tension.
"Both the countries are affected if Pakistan is affected as they are our best friends", he said, adding that the Chinese FM would visit India soon to play his mediatory role to ease the tension.
Pakistan is a peace-loving country and does not want tension with India, said the Foreign Minister. He said political stability in the region is in the interest of all. (pick up previous).

[Bill Moore]

Some articles to expand awareness of the growing tension. Note the spin factor in most of the articles, and that they frequently quote unnamed sources, none the less those who want to throw gasoline on the flames are crawling out of the wood work.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=19147

PESHAWAR: Baitullah Mahsud, central head of the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Monday announced full support to the army against archrival India if it makes any aggression against the country.

He said the time had come to wage a real jihad they had been waiting for. “We know very well that the visible and invisible enemies of the country have been planning to weaken this lone Islamic nuclear power. But the “mujahideen” will foil all such nefarious designs of our enemies,” said the top militant commander.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/_...ow/3880992.cms

"It's (LeT) a monster we created and now we can't get it back in the bottle," the official told the daily commenting on ISI's links with Lashkar.

The ISI had forged ties with jihadist groups throughout the 1980s when the CIA used it to support the Mujahidin against the Soviet Army in Afghanistan and when it saw an opportunity in 1989 to weaken India by creating trouble in Jammu and Kashmir the militants of the outfit were infiltrated into India, the newspaper reported.

General Asad Durrani, ISI chief from 1990-92, denied supporting LeT in his tenure, but admitted that Pakistan had an interest in supporting such groups.

"Given Kashmir's history, we can't be expected to remain uninterested,"

http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryP...r+Lahore+blast'

Intelligence agencies late on Wednesday arrested "an Indian secret agent and two others who were allegedly involved" in a bomb blast in Lahore on Wednesday morning, a media report said.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/Ne...an's%20Lie

Efforts by the Pakistani government to implicate India in the car-bomb blast in Lahore on December 24 backfired when a little-known Taliban group claimed responsibility, for which four men whom Pakistan claimed to be "Indians" were arrested, media reports said.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/c...,5582486.story

For alleged supporter of terror in Pakistan, it's business as usual
Despite officials' vow to crack down after Mumbai, Islamic charity Jamaat-ud-Dawa still operates unfettered

But militant Lashkar leaders arrested separately have not yet appeared in court. And the fact that the Muridke headquarters is still open highlights how ambivalent the government is about targeting Jamaat-ud-Dawa, which is highly popular because of its relief work.

Besides relief camps, Jamaat runs 160 schools, 50 Islamic boarding schools, 153 clinics and eight hospitals. If the government clamps down too hard, it risks a backlash. Already, there have been anti-government and pro-Jamaat protests, including by a group of Hindu women in Sindh province.

Interesting description, it is beginning to sound like the Hezbollah model.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...ucated-youths/

Lashkar-e-Taiba draws well-educated youths

LAHORE, Pakistan | The profile of those joining the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba is changing to include more young, educated men, some of whom even hold advanced degrees.

"The big change is that until a few years back most of the militants were hailing from the [Afghan] frontier, but now the scenario has changed and young men from all over Pakistan are joining," said Brig. Gen. Mahmood Shah, who served the Pakistani army in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas on the border with Afghanistan.

Brendan O´Duffy, a researcher from the University of London who has studied militant organizations in Britain, said he has found members are "mostly of working class origins but a large minority achieved relatively a high education, tending towards engineering and science degrees, including medicine in the case of the failed [June 2007] London and Glasgow attacks."

Kashif Alam, senior superintendent of police in the northwest city of Peshawar, said the profile of the average militant in Peshawar, near the border with Afghanistan, has changed but that the number of educated Pakistanis was actually decreasing.

"We´re seeing an increase in the number of criminals who are working for these militant organizations," he said. "More and more of their operations are being carried out by criminals. Some of the people we have captured were found with thousands of rupees in their pockets."

This report is a gem, it is actually balanced, it presents two sides to the story and doesn't lead the reader to a conclusion.

[davidbfpo]

Given that snow lies seven feet deep in the mountains of Kashmir the deployment of extra Pakistani troops into the border region is questionable; any campaigning can only start in March at the earliest. There is a thread here on the Kargil operation, which may explain more.

I don't know where the quoted 14th Division is normally garrisoned, but moving a division into snowclad mountains seems unwise - even if they are mountain warfare trained and equipped.

Yes the Pakistani Army has deployed extra troops into the FATA, I've seen nothing to suggest these are the first rate divisions normally deployed on the Indian border. The bulk of the fighting has been b formations like the Frontier Corps and second line reinforcements.

Following Zadari's responses to the Mumbai attacks, in which he (reportedly) acknowledged Pakistan's national weakness, a weakness caused by the current instability (economy, FATA fighting etc) did not endear him to the Pakistani Army. Add in the Indian air incursions and the usual assortment of 'Great Game' activity - all makes a potent mixture.

Pakistan's national security and national defence belongs to the army, not politicians. Former president Musharraf was given a departure from Islamabad airport, on a trip to Europe, as if he still was the head of state and on his return this week spoke publically on the situation (Google News for the reporting, which I'd not seen here).

I would suggest that the current reported Pakistani military movements have more to do with the Pakistani Army asserting itself - assuring the nation it remains on guard.

davidbfpo

[Jedburgh]

All links are redundant.

The Hindu - Jan 7, 2009

This is a scanned copy of the 69-page dossier of material stemming from the ongoing investigation into the Mumbai terrorist attacks of November 26-29, 2008 that was handed over by India to Pakistan on January 5, 2009:

Part 1, 3.13mb

Part 2, 4.16mb

Part 3, 1.99mb

Part 4, 5.40mb

[jkm_101_fso]

Good on them for learning from Mumbai attack:

NYPD Eyes Disrupting Cell Phones in Event of Terrorist Attack

The New York Police Department is training for new threats in the wake of the Mumbai terror attacks, Commissioner Raymond Kelly is set to tell a Senate committee Thursday.

By Judith Miller
FOXNews.com
Thursday, January 08, 2009

The New York Police Department is looking for ways to disrupt cell phone calls and other forms of electronic communication among terrorists in the event of another terror attack in New York, Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly says.
The need to disrupt communications is one of several conclusions that the NYPD has drawn from studying the November attack in Mumbai, India, a three-day rampage by machine gun and grenade-wielding Islamic militants in which at least 165 people were killed and 304 were wounded.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009...rorist-attack/

It's not clear from his testimony whether the NYPD has the means to disrupt electronic communications for a small group of terrorists without shutting down cell phone service to a large part of Manhattan.

Would obviously be a major roadblock, and quite unpopular. May cause more chaos, in the event a Mumbai-like scenario took place.

The NYPD has also been at odds with the Justice Department over its attempt to get the federal government to loosen up a law governing electronic surveillance. Under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, warrants must be obtained to begin electronic monitoring of terror suspects, and the requests go through a multi-layered vetting process by the FBI and the Justice Department. Kelly is asking for these agencies to expedite NYPD's requests to be able to combat fast-moving terror situations.

This will certainly be the biggest obstacle.

[selil]

Disrupting cell phone systems is a bad idea.

1) Major medical devices in first responder vehicles use the cell network for telemetry.
2) Many fire suppression and burglar systems use the cell network for telemetry and control.
3) Many home medical devices use the cell network for telemetry and warning.
4) The interdiction or wide spread disruption of the cell network could have wide and varied secondary and tertiary effects.
5) Under FCC rules it is currently absolutely illegal to do even by law enforcement (um because of all those other spectrum users).

Finally without going broad spectrum high power it is really hard to do unless you have a deep penetration into the cell network already. Nobody I know is going to admit that even if it is pretty much true with the extensions to CALEA.

[Jedburgh]

RAND, 16 Jan 09: The Lessons of Mumbai

This study of the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 2008 is part of the RAND Corporation Occasional Papers series. The research for this report was completed in December 2008 and updated as of January 9, 2009. Much of the information available for this necessarily preliminary analysis comes from reporting by the news media, which in such circumstances is
often inaccurate, and from information provided by well-placed Indian and U.S. government sources, which sometimes is incomplete. For a thorough, and hopefully accurate reconstruction of events, we must await an official inquiry or government-sponsored independent investigation. With these caveats, this paper

• Identifies the operational and tactical features and technical capabilities displayed by the terrorists—the extent to which the means employed in the attack were innovations or built on previous experiences.

• Evaluates the response of the Indian security forces.

• Draws out the implications of the incident for India, Pakistan, and the international community.

• Derives the lessons learned from the attack and the Indian response.

The goal of the study is to develop findings that may be helpful to counterterrorism authorities in India and elsewhere in preparing for or countering future terrorist attacks on urban centers.

Complete 37-page paper at the link.