North Korea: 2012-2016

[Dayuhan]

There are none so blind as those who will not see.

The fundamental change happened on two fronts. One, China crossed the line where it now felt strong enough to instruct the US to stay out of the Yellow Sea, and two, that the US position has weakened to the extent that it complied. That is a sea change when viewed in terms of the international pecking order.

There are those even blinder... those who can only see what they want to see.

In a more realistic world, not committed to cataclysmic interpretation, we have the Chinese Government deciding that they need to rattle a bit of saber for domestic consumption (if you follow China's internal political/economic situation you'll know why), and the US deciding that making an issue of it would be too much hassle - and too much distraction from the issue at hand - to be worth the effort.

it reinforces the belief in North Korea that China has assertited itself and as a result the US has accepted a subordinate role to China (certainly in that region) which will have a material effect on what happens in North Korea, Taiwan and ultimately Japan.

Nothing has really changed much. The US role in managing North Korea is exactly what it was before: we provide the military guarantee (necessary but most unlikely to be used, as the North Koreans know a full scale confrontation would be fatal for them), and we provide the vocal opposition. The economic pressure - a much greater factor in terms of actual influence - comes from China and South Korea. The Japanese and Russians are at the table because they have to be, but have less of an actual role.

It is not a binary US-North Korea standoff, with others looking on.

Of course all of these powers use what influence they have in accordance with their own perception of their own interests, not according to a US script. This has not changed and is not likely to. The interests involved are not entirely consistent, but they do have a lot of common ground: nobody wants to see open conflict.

The North Koreans would, of course, have preferred to see a US-China confrontation. Such a confrontation would not have been military, at least beyond the level of posturing: too much to lose on both sides. It would turn into one of those diplomatic ###-for-tat dances, and the first ### the Chinese would pull out of their kit would be to reduce pressure on and increase assistance to North Korea. That would not help us at all.

All in all the entire incident is a wrinkle, and nothing to get upset about... unless of course getting upset is what you want to do.