Actually my primary concern with Pakistan has very little to do with AQ or the Taliban and has everything to do with how our pursuit of both is changing the delicate balance of deterrence between Pakistan and India.

I think we apply a very incomplete and narrow definition to "sanctuary" (ungoverned spaces); and a very broad definition of AQ to combine to lead us to an incredibly destabilizing family of engagement. All of this seems to be done as if we think it has no affect on Pak-Indian deterrence

Instability in Afghanistan through Muj and now Taliban agents is an important aspect of Pakistan's deterrence with India. As is stability in the tribal areas of Pakistan through largely allowing those populaces to be self-governing. With all of our intervention and forcing of Pakistan to adopt a very powerful conflict of interests (maintaining good relations with the US overtly, while covertly pursuing instability operations to support their deterrence against India). What effect on deterrence? Add to this India getting more involved in Afghanistan as well.

Deterrence is a delicate balance game, walking a fine line between actions that provoke and actions that deter. When the balance point changes, mistakes are more apt to happen.

Is it a victory for western interest in South Asia if we atrit AQ but provoke a nuclear exchange between Indian and Pakistan at the same time?? I don't think so. When Secretary Clinton recently spoke on Pakistan's nuclear weapons she made no indication that the thought had ever entered her head that we could be disrupting the balance of deterrence. Loose nukes are not the greatest risk. State employment of nukes is.