Does anybody here know the origins of the 'conflict curve' concept (or the stages of a conflict)? I've been struck for some time now by the (mostly implicit) power this concept has acquired in our thinking about wars and conflicts. In my own career, I started observing the use of the more general concept probably sometime in mid- to late-90s. This then at some point transformed into the '4 phases' etc.

But does anybody know who first drew the 'hump' with the stages on the x-, and the level of violence on the y-axis?

-Stephan