Robert C. Jones:

I am repeating my earlier query, because you still have not responded.

You say "it's not our call to pick who governs Afghanistan." Does the same go for the Pak Army/ISI? Do they get to pick?

As far as ideology goes, I disagree for the most part, but especially as it relates to AQ receiving sanctuary from the Taliban and the Pak Army/ISI, which was what my comment was primarily about. AQ is essentially a supplicant. They go to the people who control the ground and say "hide me." Why should they hide AQ? The world doesn't like it much. American airplanes and armies come and shoot the place up, MO has to live far from home etc. So why do they do it? It seems to me they do it because AQ shares an ideological vision with them, an Islamist vision. If AQ said, "we want to strengthen the Chambers of Commerce of the Muslim world and we are willing to die in the effort", I doubt they would have received the sanctuary, given at considerable cost, that they have received. And there is no other place in the world where AQ can go to get that because there is no other place in the world so ideologically favorable.

What does AQ bring to the Taliban and Pak Army/ISI? I think the first is the cachet of hosting an organization that has demonstrated it can hurt and, maybe more importantly, frighten the west. They get to hang with the guys who have really stuck it to the man.

Second they can help bring in some money from Gulf donors. Why do those donors donate? They like the ideology espoused by AQ. Some rich whiskey drinking Saudi princelet can feel pious by sending money off to help restore the caliphate. That is what AQ is selling to those guys, an ideological vision.

JJackson:

A couple of observations. Pakistan is indeed falling apart but I think, and this has been covered often in other places on SWJ, that is because of what the powerful in Pakistan have done, not because of what they have pretended to help us do. A lot of those powerful are individually much better off financially because of what is going on. I believe that is what they are primarily interested in, not their country.

I think you might be underestimating the importance of the Taliban & company's "hard core". That group can be very powerful, especially since it will be aided, as much or more than before I think, by the Pak Army/ISI who will most likely view anything other than Taliban & company as an "Indian proxy."

My statement may well be full of holes but consider this. The Saudi gov nor those of any of the Gulf states allow AQ to openly operate on their territory. If they are there they have to hide well. That is not the case in Talibania or Pakistan. AQ has sanctuary there. They aren't hunted by the police. That is an important difference. Is the funding probelm? Yep, it is and will be. I don't know how to solve it. The Saudi's are a bit of a conundrum for us.

The big losers in a negotiated settlement would also be the Uzbeck, Tajiks, Hazaras and Pashtuns who like neither Taliban & company nor the Pak Army/ISI. They would probably object which gets us back to what Steve the Planner and Dayuhan say.