So I've been blogging about whether Usama Bin Laden still matters to the global jihadi movement. Essentially, if UBL was captured or killed tomorrow, would it mattter? And, if it does matter, what would be the outcome?

Here is a survey I posted and had some good participation on it, mostly from academics. I throw it up here as I'd like to get the perspective of those that have been deployed to AFG/IZ and other CT assignments. Here are the three questions I posted and would enjoy any and all thoughts on this topic.

Here's the poll:

Overall theme of the poll:
If Usama Bin Laden were killed in 2011, would it matter to the global jihadi movement?

Question #1:

What will be the chief consequence of Usama Bin Laden’s death to the global jihadi movement? (Only pick One!)

-Status Quo- No substantial change in AQ activity
-AQ Central directed plots against U.S. and its Allies decrease substantially
-AQAP becomes new AQ Central
-Some other AQ member in AF/PAK becomes leader of AQ Central
-AQ Central loses its chief sponsor, the Haqqani network
-AQ fundraising increases substantially
-AQ fundraising diminishes substantially
-Taliban more reluctant to make peace with Karzai
-AQ-inspired recruitment slows substantially
-AQ-inspired recruitment accelerates substantially
-AQ Central directed plots against U.S. and its Allies increase substantially
-Taliban pursue a peace settlement with Karzai
-AQ Central shifts focus to pursue guerilla warfare in Central Asia


Question #2:

What will be the chief consequence of UBL’s death for the U.S. and its Western allies? (Only pick One!)

Public pressure forces early withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan.
Public pressure forces a refocus on counterterrorism operations (Biden Plan).
Status Quo- No substantial change in U.S. and Western operations.


Question #3:

Would UBL’s death result in more or less AQ-inspired attacks over the next five years? (2011- 2016) (Only pick One!)

-More
-Less
-No Change in the pace of attacks.


Thanks,

Clint
www.selectedwisdom.com