Quote Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
Bread "scuffles" would be a more accurate description of what happened in 2008--riots implies far more substantial and widespread protests than actually occurred.
They were widely called riots at the time, though that might be considered overstatement. 7 dead is a fair scuffle, though.

Quote Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
Certainly the increase in food prices played a role, although in Egypt those prices increases were typically smaller than in many other countries because of subsidies. Youth unemployment was important too too, although again Egypt was not the worst country for this, nor had it grown much worse lately. Years of authoritarian regime played a role--although as you correctly note, that in itself is an inadequate explanation for revolt. In the Egyptian case, however, the deliberalization of parliamentary politics and a sense of an impending engineered hand-off to power to Gamal Mubarak exacerbated this, heightening discontent with the regime in general and (in the latter case) creating cracks within the Army. The creative use of ICTs certainly played a role.

Critically, Tunisia played a vital role by entirely changing people's perceptions of political opportunity structures. A very similar regime had just been overthrown through popular protest. The mukhabarat and other organs of state power had been shown to be less fearsome than had been previously believed.
Certainly Tunisia provided the spark, equally certainly economic conditions played a part in building the volatility that the spark ignited.

The whole bread conversation got pulled off track... I didn't originally cite it because it was "the cause", but because I see it as a significant factor in the aftermath, simply because it's a place where immediate policy can have an immediate impact. Tunisia may have been a major contributor to igniting Egypt, but it won't be a major concern for a new government, unless of course the military decides to hold onto power. Food prices and unemployment will be major concerns going forward: the populace doesn't just want freedom, it wants jobs and cheap bread.

All this matters for a specific reason. Given Egypt's enormous debt, government deficit, and trade balance, IMF assistance and loan restructuring will probably be needed. The IMF and other creditors typically insist on terminating subsidies as a condition for assistance. This is good economics and it is necessary in the long term, but politically it could be a real problem. Egyptians have been addicted to that subsidy for a long time, and if they are forced to go cold turkey things could get ugly. I'm hoping the US and EU will use their influence to push for a gradual withdrawal of subsidies rather than an abrupt termination. A major shock early on could badly destabilize what's likely to be a very fragile transition government, creating conditions that could generate a radical takeover or a military coup, which would in turn create conditions that Islamic radicals could and would exploit.

This article from 2008 gives a little rundown on events then, and a hint of the dimensions of the subsidy...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ad-crisis.html

A 100 kilogram sack of subsidised flour is worth about $3.14. The same sack costs $377 on the black market.
When a subsidy of a staple need is that large, removing it in one swoop is going to cause all kinds of trouble, something that the beady-eyed economists in the IMF back office may not realize. Yes, it has to go, but I'd suggest taking it slow and easy... not that anyone cares what I suggest!