Communist Insurgency in the Philippines (catch all)

[Dayuhan]

In the Cordilleras,I think that the profusion of sectoral front organisatiobs is a natural outgrowth of the above board engagement I envisioned for Caraga.The armed movement in Northern Luzon,excepting Abra,is nearly inconsequential.Outside of Abra it is a policing action.Just going on memoury,I believe the Cordilleras has had only 2 fatal Armed contacts,neither of them tactical.

There are occasional encounters. In my immediate area we had an ambush in my town Jan 2010, 5 military killed, then just down the road 8 wounded in June and another 7 killed in July. These involved NPA from Abra coming over (I can walk to the Abra border in 5 hrs, less than it would take me to drive) and trying to kick things up over here. Basically they were trying to beef up the military presence in villages on this side of the mountains, hoping they will provoke incidents that will rebuild support for the NPA. No notable success; the military behaviour is better than before, though still less than exemplary, and people see through the plan. The military is not quite what they were: in '88 drunk soldiers opened up in the center of the town where I live, killed a couple of kids and created a whole bunch of insurgents. I don't know if they're any nicer now, but they're a little smarter.

I'm not sure the Cordillera model can be replicated elsewhere, as it's heavily built around the dominance of tribal groups within their territories and substantial cohesion within those groups. The NPA flourishes in Abra because the river valley and the poblacions are dominated by Ilocano settlers and the Tingguian/Isneg tribal people are largely marginalized... sort of a replication of the Mindanao model, with Ilocanos instead of Visayans and the Tingguian/Isneg playing the "Lumad" role.

Certainly there's a sense of cohesion among the Visayans in Mindanao, though I can't see that as specific to the Caraga construct in any way. There is an identity, but is it specifically "Caragan"?

However,the push in Caraga has almost always centered upon a push for a Federalist Government,either within the Philippines or else as part of an independent Mindanao.Caraga and most of ComVal (Compostela Valley),Davao Rwgion (the 3 Davaos), most of Zamboanga and the Northern Coast up to Iligan City inMisamis Oriental Province.This"Christian,"or Bisaya zone would comprise 1 of 3 federated states or regions.

The Lumad would have Bukidnon,most of ComVal and roughly half of South Cotabato and Sarangani Provinces and part of the Pulangi Plateau in North Cotabato.The

Muslims would get the rest (ARMM,island provinces of Basilan,Sulu and Tawi Tawi,and roughly 1/3rd of the Zamboangan Peninsula.

This sort of geographical division is commonly tossed around in Mindanao political circles, and has been for years... especially when there's a bottle or two in the middle of the circle. This sort of division is completely impractical and would cause more conflict than it causes... couldn't be enforced without ethnic cleansing, or something very much like it. Do you really think the Visayan majority in Bukidnon, especially the ranch and plantation interests, or the "large scale small scale" mining interests in ComVal would let the lumad "get" those areas? What would happen to the lumad in the "Visayan" areas, or the Visayans in the Muslim areas? Sounds appealing, but I can't see it working, the populations are far too mixed for a geographical separation to be viable.

Instead of trying to separate them, it makes more sense to me to provide them with equal protection, opportunity, and status in all the places, rather than trying to divide them... but we all know that won't happen either.

Interestingly,the Mindanowan Bisaya,despite having kinship and cultural ties with Cebu and the rest of the Eastern Visayas haven't moved to unite with the autonomous anf independence movements centered in Cebu City.I am afraid that a Balkanisation of the Philippines is inevitable and that it will take place sooner,rather than later.

I don't really see balkanization happening. These groups exist, but they are largely personality-driven and have minimal appeal to the broader populace. How much real public support is there for an independent Visayan state? Lots of talk, but I don't see it going anywhere.

For the first time since (the current) Aquino took office the local powers that be have begun agitating for independence.It happens every 2 or 3 years with everyone getting stirred up until they lose interest.It will only take the right leader to make it happen.

They stir the pot to get concessions from the central government, then shut up til they want more... usually concessions involve CDF releases or other political perks. That dance has been going on a long time. I'm not sure if it's a leadership deficit or a followership deficit... I don't think the average folks really care that much. It gives the politicians something to talk about that doesn't involve their own corruption and ineptness.

The groups exist, in Mindanao and the Visayas... but do they really have political support? Are they really that interested in the nominal political goals, or are those window dressing for an essentially personalistic agenda?

"Settlers"...Here is the thing,the whole "Settlers"thing is almost entirely manufactured by Muslim propagandists.On Mainland Mindanao only 3 provinces have ever held Muslim Majorities (North Cotabato, Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur).Those 3 provinces have never been united,and have not,contrary to Muslim propaganda,been at war with"invaders"for 400 odd years.

Constructed history is a common theme in Mindanao, and not just among the Muslims. The Visayan/Christian side plays the same game, often in an attempt to overstate their own indigenous presence. The actual historical record (often Spanish and Chinese) is extremely sketchy, often contradictory and seldom reliable, and all sides cherrypick those records freely in an effort to "prove" their own points. The Visayan narrative is no more credible and no better supported than the Muslim narrative.

Settlement and migration remain at the core of both insurgencies in Mindanao, despite all efforts to deny them.

Certainly there is an indigenous Visayan population in Mindanao, particularly in the north and east. As you point out, until the 1920s most Visayans were coastal. Today the interior population is dominated by them. How did they get there, if not by migration and settlement? How many Visayans lived in Agusan Sur, for example, before the 1920s? How many are there now?

Even a cursory look at population increase makes it clear that there was enormous migration from the Visayas into both interior and coastal areas. "Butuanon" and "Surigaonon" are not discrete "tribes", no matter what anyone says... nobody knows who in those areas is of indigenous descent and who is descended from settlers, but it is absolutely certain that a huge part of the Visayan population in the north and east, likely a majority, is migrant or migrant descended, including most of the elite population. There is no way that the rate of population increase we see in those areas could possibly happen without massive migration. Look at Cebu... virtually no arable land, reefs ravaged, fished out, population soaring? Migration is a natural solution, and there's a huge diaspora of Cebuano migrants. Many went to areas of Mindanao that were already Visayan-dominated, and settled in.

I can't buy the idea that there are no settlements in Caraga. When I lived in Agusan Sur virtually every Visayan I met was a settler or no more than 2 generations removed from settlers. We had entire barangays settled in the last decade by Ilonggo refugees from the fighting in Coatabato... settlers twice over. Any Ilonggo in Mindanao is by definition a settler or descended from settlers.

In Agusan Sur, and in much of the rest of Caraga, the coast was once dominated by the Vidayans, the interior by the Lumad. Today the Lumad have been displaced, forced back into the mountains and marginalized by Visayan settlers. And as you mention, virtually all of the NPA footsoldiers in the area are Lumad. Coincidence? I doubt it. The problem of the Lumad, ultimately, is the same as the problem of the Muslims, they just gravitate to different ideologies in the search for a solution. Either way, it's the eternal flood of land-hungry Visayan migrants driving the indigenous populace deeper and deeper into marginal zones that lies at the core of why the fighters fight. Of course the Visayan populace has their own constructed historical narrative to toss up against reality, but it's very thin and really doesn't stand up to much scrutiny.

In Cotabato (the old Cotabato, not the subdivided variant) in 1918 there were 61,053 non-Muslims and 110,926 Muslims. In 1970 there were 711,430 non Muslims and 424,577 Muslims. Or for a more extreme example, look at the Kapatagan Valley in Lanao, fertile and readily farmed. In 1918 there were 24 Christian settlers. In 1960 there were 93,000 immigrants in the valley.

I don't see how you can manage a population transfer on this scale without tension, and generally violence, between the settlers and the indigenous populace.