... I'm not necessarily averse to action. I'm not even necessarily and at all time averse to a bit of meddling. Before we contemplate action, commitment, and involvement,though, we need to get some things straight, especially when meddling is proposed.

We need to know our goal: what exactly do we want to achieve, and why?

We need to know and realistically assess the proposed method of achieving that goal, in detail.

We need to assess our commitment: what resources are we actually willing to commit, and do we have a realistic probability of success within those constraints? Is this goal something we want, or something we need? Do we have the political will to chew what we bite off? If we don't, better not bite it, because we'll likely end up choking on it.

We need to realistically assess the leverage we can and are willing to bring to bear, and its ability to achieve the desired goal.

We need to anticipate, to the best of our ability, the actions of those whose interests diverge from ours, and assess the leverage they can bring against us.

We need to assess the potential for unintended adverse consequences.

If those assessments come up unfavorably, or if we can only make them come up favorably by exaggerating our own capacity and will and underestimating those of our rivals, action may not be the smartest thing. Doing nothing, or very limited involvement, may not always be the most viscerally appealing course, but it's better than sticking your dick in a rat trap, diving into quicksand in an impulsive attempt to rescue someone, or sending forces out to achieve tasks that they are not equipped or trained to accomplish and that we are not willing to support to the extent needed for any level of success.

"Influence" isn't an abstract thing: either it's based on tangible carrots and sticks or it doesn't exist. If we don't know what the carrots and sticks are, the other guy won't know either, and he'll decline to be influenced. Any proposal based on the use of influence has to describe and assess exactly what carrots and sticks are to be used and how, just as a plan for military action has to be built around the capacities and constraints of the available forces.