The new Libya: various aspects

[Rex Brynen]

Missiles are in many places. So what?

The concerns about Libyan ManPADS don't even stand a "so what" test.
You can buy ManPADS on the black market.

It is actually rather harder than you think to buy a working MANPADS with a functional seeker head, coolant, and battery, and it is certainly quite difficult to get a later generation weapon. Moreover, the buyback programs both increase the price and, in some cases, generate useful intelligence on the black market.

AQIM, for example, hasn't deployed them in the Sahel, although they would be very useful. Prior to that, they weren't used in Algeria at all during the civil war (so far as I'm aware--I stand to be corrected). The ones used in Mombassa in 2002 were old, poor quality SA-7s.. indeed, it isn't even clear the attackers had managed to fire functional missiles (see my comment on "working" MANPADS). There has been no confirmed used of them by Hamas, in part because they previously couldn't be easily obtained on the black market (I suspect the Iranians were worried about chain-of-custody, since they largely smuggle through black market intermediaries; now there are reports that Hamas has them via Libya). Neither the Hawthis nor AQIP appear to have used them in Yemen.

No one is suggesting MANPADS be a driver of policy in Libya, nor have they been. Ought it be one of the (many) things the IC and NTC address? Of course.