Having very recently aquired Greek bonds for a price of 40 cent on the € running only another year I have to say that I do believe that Greece will pay back his debts reduced by a big "voluntary" haircut, but that it also has to get the economy running again and to clean up the economic mess resulting in huge regular debts.
Sadly Greece and a lot of Greek have used European funds too often in the worst possible manner, making them nothing more then very inefficient short-term boosts for income and growth. This approach is sadly also quite widespread in southern Italy, where money from the North and Europe just seems to flow through rotten buildings and invented land into the pockets of some "clever" ones.
However I do think that the fellow Italians still think that Italy will make it. Sadly it is pretty much Italian to react when it is almost too late, just look at the way Italy entered the Euro and that many think politics don't make an impact on their live. We had for so many years now a deeply corrupt, shadey sun king as PM, very capable to keep his power through all sorts of "manovre di palazzo", media power and money but utterly uncapable to work for the good of the nation and the common people. A PM able to sell failures with a false smile and big gestures, perhaps best seen in the earthquake of Aquila where he played the salesman with great acumen and but hardly bettered the live of the fellow countrymen hard hit.
So let us hope that Monti like Prodi before will do the right thing and won't get hindered to much by the "casta politica". I still remember my anger when Prodi got backstabbed by a small radical part of his fragile alliance, paving the way for Berlusconi once again. The gravitas of the situation should however (hopefully) keep such attempts in check.
I also don't believe that Italy will leave the Euro, the pride is in this case too big, perhaps trumping also economic reason.
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