Since you ask so nicely...Originally Posted by TDB
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Opinion: The killings of opposition groups – men, women and children – by the minority Syrian regime must stop.
Opinion: I realise that Syria is a complex and unique problem.
Fact: The old Middle East Sunni/Shia is one major issue then there is that of Russia having Mediterranean ‘warm water’ port facilities there.
Fact: Then we have Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey who stand to get scolded if Syria burns.
Fact: I accept that any talk of military intervention by the US and maybe the EU will be interpreted by Russia and others as a pretext for regime change.
Fact: Regime change in Syria will most likely mean the end of access to Syrian port facilities for the Russians.
Fact: A new Sunni Arab government in Syria will change the balance in the Middle East significantly.
Fact: There are many vested interests in maintaining the status quo in Syria.
Fact: The insurrection in Syria has been bubbling for more than a year with increased intensity over the recent months.
Opinion: The longer the insurrection lasts and the more violent it becomes the more difficult it will be to impose a peaceful settlement in Syria.
Fact: When challenged with an insurrection has one of two choices – act or abdicate.
(Negotiation is the soft route to abdication but few regimes willingly relinquish power and tend to try to hold on too long until overthrown or forced to surrender.)
Opinion: The Alawite minority will try to cling to power until a negotiated settlement is no longer possible.
Opinion: I am told that there is a saying among the (15% minority) Alawites and that is, “we either hand individually or we hang together”. I believe they have chosen the latter.
Opinion: If the Alawites lose power they will become a persecuted minority (and also on the receiving end of some serious payback). Will they submit to democratic elections willingly? No.
Opinion: The Alawites should therefore be removed from power by the quickest means as this will end the current killing and also reduce future payback effected on the Alawites.
Fact: There are clearly efforts being made to bring economic (sanctions) and diplomatic pressure to bear on the Syrian regime to end the carnage. Safe in the arms of Mother Russia the Syrian regime is unmoved.
Opinion: The more weapons that find their way into the hands of the opposition groups the more difficult it will be to bring an effective cease fire into effect. Hence my opinion that opposition groups should not be armed and the urgent need to bring the Assad regime to heel.
What are the possibilities that Russia will change its position?
Opinion: Not much… until the writing is on the wall for the Assad regime and then some.
So where to apply the pressure?
Opinion: On Assad’s inner circle and the military units involved in the mass atrocities.
Who should do this?
Opinion: Anyone other than the US … or US assets placed under direct French or Brit military command.
Anyone other than the US able to do this?
Opinion: No. Military intervention is therefore unlikely as the Germans and the Dutch have already surrendered (no doubt with more to follow).
Why should the US not lead the intervention?
Opinion: Because (based on their track record) they will cock it up.
Where to from here?
Opinion: wait and see.
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