Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
Ray,

Again, I think you're trying to push events in the Philippines into a China-dominated paradigm where they really don't belong... the situation between the Philippines and China is only one part of a complicated picture, and by no means the most important part. I'm trying to make that point without resorting to extended expositions on modern Philippine political history, which would be a digression from the thread topic and which are a matter of very little interest to most people here and most people anywhere.
While you may be right about the dynamic of domestic politics, the issue of external threat generally concerns the Govt, MPs, and a few of the intelligentsia who concern themselves in these issues.

The remainder population may have a general idea, but are too concerned with their daily rota and problems of existence that they are only concerned when they are attacked. Till then, they are complacent and hope that the Govt Is looking after their interests.

The livelihood of fishermen, who are blocked or challenged by China, would cause the common man concern, because the issue will be nearer their comprehension level. Violation of the EEZ they would hardly understand and so it will not be on the radar of concern.

Not totally delighted, but not totally heartbroken either. With the end of the Cold War and a general move toward military retrenchment the loss was seen as manageable.
With the closure of the Cold War era, the whole world put their guard down.

However, with new ‘threats’ emerging, rekindling of the fears of a new Cold War is gradually coming into being, and more so in Asia, since the ‘wrangling’ has shifted from the Europe to the Far East and the Indian Ocean. I would be surprised if the Govts of the region, given China’s belligerent posture and hegemonic aspirations would not be worried about this development.

One must not forget that these countries of the Asia Pacific region have experienced colonialism and imperialism (except Thailand and Japan). They realise , for good or for worse, that one will have to assert herself through every means including loose alliances or firm alliances, lest they are once again shackled to a new ruler or be subjugated to the whims and fancies of a bigger nation even if not made a vassal.

A minority of what? The Philippine Senate voted 12-11 to reject the proposed treaty. During the negotiations for the treaty it was made clear that the Senate regarded the compensation offer as inadequate and would reject it, but the offer was not raised.
A minority view.

If the Senate voted 12 -11, it just proves that it was a close call and the rejection was a near miss prompted not by security concerns but because of, what was felt, was an ‘inadequate’ offer, if I have understood you correctly.

Again, a majority of what? A majority of the Senate was all that was required... actually even there a majority wasn't needed, as passage of a treaty requires a 2/3 majority.

Whether that majority in the Senate reflected a majority of the popular view is open to question, but most of those who observe closely believe that it did not. After the treaty was rejected, President Aquino (who supported ratification of the treaty) tried to get the decision overturned through a referendum. The effort bogged down in legal issues (the Constitution provides for legislation to be overturned by referendum, but makes no such provision for a treaty), and was eventually abandoned. Again nobody knows for sure, but the consensus seems to be that a referendum to overturn the decision would probably have passed.

So if the decsion didn't reflect a popular majority, how did it get made? Bunch of reasons really, but two stand out.

First, that Senate was the first post-Marcos Senate, and was dominated by opponents of Marcos, many of whom were deeply suspicious of the US, on account of extended US support for Marcos. Their stand on the bases was a minor or non-existent consideration in their election; they were elected because they were opponents of the hated dictator. They also turned out to be against the bases, or at least in favor of getting a much larger compensation package.

A second factor was the emergence of a quite unlikely coalition, which probably didn't represent a popular majority but still carried considerable political weight. The left had always wanted the bases out, but never had the political clout to do anything about it. They ended up being supported by a broad social conservative coalition, including the Catholic Church and much of the conservative business community. This included many elements one would normally expect to support the US, but was turned against by the sprawling prostitution ghettos around the bases and the pretty accurate) perception of arrogance and racism from base authorities, particularly involving crimes committed by Americans against Filipinos.
OK.

So it means that domestic political overrode the necessity of security, and more so, the world was cooling down from the tensions of the Cold War.



Again, which "they" are you talking about here? And why would anyone see "no way out"? Are you assuming a perception of imminent threat from China? If so, on what is that assumption based?
‘They’ means the Philippines.

If there is a way out, could you inform us as to what is the way out?

The indications and the manner in which the US is being roped in and joining various loose coalitions as the joint patrol with the Vietnamese are the assumptions. It is obvious that if the Philippines felt there was no threat from China, it would be rather odd that one starts patrolling the South China Sea with another country when it had never done so before the threat posed by China.

If indeed there was no threat from China, why patrol the seas and that too with another nation? It could have well been business as usual and status quo ante before the threat of China came into being.



Again, basing of US troops in the Philippines is not under discussion. There is discussion (though no specific proposal has been offered here) of expanding the presence under the current Visiting Forces Agreement, which places a number of restrictions on movement and activity. That does not necessarily relate to China, as the Philippine Government faces far more imminent military threats from within.
It is rather interesting a thought that a country that sent the US packing should bring in the presence of US troops for quelling ‘internal threats’ to the Philippines Govt? Is the US some ‘guns on hire’ to foist a Govt of another country from internal threats?



Is that "real threat" in, or are you assuming that is and viewing developments in that light without placing them in local context.
The indicators point to that direction.

I would be surprised that the Philippines is getting US warships to combat ‘internal threats’, more so, when she is entering into Agreements with other countries to undertake joint patrols and immediately succeeding from the joint exercise with the US Navy, which thereafter did an naval exercise with Vietnam.

They very fact that both the Navies of the region (Philippines and Vietnam) undertook exercises with the US Navy one after the other, the Philippines Navy acquiring US Naval vessels and then entering into an Agreement with Vietnam to undertake Joint Patrolling, does indicate that this is the aftermath of Lessons Learnt after the Naval Exercises with the US Navy.

The fact that there was sharp criticism from China is another indicator that the exercises were aimed against China.

It would be extraordinary that Philippines does not find China a threat and yet provokes China to get verbally ballistic!

There are about 600 US soldiers here; that number goes up and down depending on movements and on scheduled exercises. They are on a specific mission to train and support Philippine troops engaged in operations against the ASG and other insurgent/bandit/terrorist/etc elements in Basilan and Jolo. They are not legally permitted to engage in combat. Bringing in a larger contingent without such a specific mission would be very controversial. Philippine officials may have discussed this with their US counterparts, but they have not released any such proposal locally. Port calls and exercises happen regularly and have for years.
One is well aware what these so called ‘training missions’ are all about. One does not allow training missions if one does not have security concerns.

There is no embargo on ‘training missions’ to have multiple aims.