Moderator's Note
This post appeared in the thread on the South China Sea and China thread, but warrants it's own thread (ends).
Shia Muslims are in the demographic majority in four countries: Iran, Azerbaijan, Iraq, and Bahrain. The government of Bahrain is headed by a Sunni, an inversion of the Syrian situation. I am not an area expert, but my impression is that notions of Shia influence tend to be undertheorized when noted at all. Some things to take into account would include:
- Percentage of all Muslims whom are Shia (I don’t know that a consensus exists, but you’ll often see figures somewhere in the range of 10%–20%).
- Percentage of (a) national population(s) made up of Shia Muslims.
- Number of Shia Muslims within a national population (there are roughly as many Shia Muslims residing in India as in Iraq, for example).
- Whether a national government can reasonably be said to be Shia-dominated.
It would probably also be worthwhile to formulate some bullet points at the sub-national level and to note their potential for interaction with national demographics and governance. Like I said, I am no area or subject matter expert here, so take it for what it’s worth.
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