Posted by davidfpo

Since the 1970's, IMHO in most Western democracies, we have seen the power of the state to be effective at home shrink for a number of reasons. Today it is the "fiscal cliff" so I shall stick with public finances being more unpredictable, with vested interests becoming the national interest as political power changes.
How has the power decreased? Economic crisis often makes the state stronger as it did in the U.S. during the depression. Also as it did for Saddam when we applied economic sanctions, which disempowered the people and strengthened the state we were trying to weaken (at least relative to its populace). I suspect the power of states weaken when the populace becomes more wealthy, because the populace isn't as dependent upon the state.

You would have a hard time convincing me that the power of the state in the U.S. has weakened since 9/11. Actually the opposite has happened. The power of state increases when the state is at war.

Lots of factors drive people to revolt, so I doubt you'll find a simple formula that will provide that answer. Most modern nations experience periods of economic decline without violent revolt. I think we over estimate the impact of economic decline. When it is relevant is when a specific group is discriminated against, but when we're all the poor house together who are you going to revolt against?

Derek Leebaert wrote, "Change begets terror. When the world alters, individuals, not nations, fight back." I need to explore this more by applying it to the JRA, IRA, Red Army, Hezbollah, etc. Maybe there is some truth to this, but it isn't self-evident.