Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
Bob,

Don't disagree with the general pattern. I would say that you could compare it to the revolutions of 1848 in Europe. Even though things were changing they had not reached a tipping point toward republican rule. There were still powerful forces trying to hang onto the dynastic monarchies. Likewise, there are forces trying to maintain the power of religion in the Arab world. This may seem like BS to some (or most) but it seems pretty obvious to me.

In any case, the question isn't who is going to win, the question is, "why is it happening now?" I would argue that it has to do with a growing middle class ala Schumpeter (Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy). What that would mean is that force has little direct roll in the transition. It has to happen on its own.
Force probably won't determine the ultimate outcome, but it does have a way of delaying the progress of a trend. If we would understood the trend, and it didn't scare us, maybe we would be less inclined to stick our nose into the midst of these evolutions (revolutions) with the goal of solving a problem that doesn't really exist. On the other hand if we really understood the trend and believed it was moving in a direction that was favorable to our interests we may be able to assert just a little energy/support in the right areas to help it alone. I think we did this with the Soladarity movement.